Elena covers macroeconomic data and policy across the eurozone, translating industrial output, inflation and growth figures into what they mean for markets.
Artículos de Elena Kovač
El BCE avanza con el euro digital y el dinero al por mayor tokenizado en el encuentro de la Fondazione ResPublica
El Banco Central Europeo presentó su hoja de ruta para los pagos digitales, con el piloto del euro digital previsto para fines de 2027 y una posible emisión en 2029, junto con una nueva infraestructura mayorista denominada Pontes y Appia.
Moulin advierte que el BCE no puede garantizar la estabilidad de la deuda soberana de Francia
El gobernador del Banco de Francia, Emmanuel Moulin, descartó la dependencia del BCE para afrontar el aumento de los costes de endeudamiento, y subrayó que la disciplina fiscal debe seguir siendo una responsabilidad nacional.
El rendimiento del Tesoro a 10 años alcanza el 5,23%, el nivel más alto desde 2007
La rentabilidad del Tesoro a 10 años alcanzó el 5,23% el viernes, su nivel más alto desde 2007, ya que las expectativas de inflación persistentes y un aumento de la emisión de bonos han llevado las rentabilidades a niveles más altos.
La inflación de Singapur aumentó al 2,3 % interanual en medio de las presiones de la demanda impulsadas por la energía, los transportes y la IA
Los precios al consumo subieron en agosto, ya que los costes energéticos, los aumentos en los transportes y la demanda impulsada por la IA contribuyeron a un aumento interanual del 0,6%, con una inflación subyacente del 2,2%.
El jefe del SNB respalda normas más estrictas de capital para UBS
El presidente del Banco Nacional Suizo, Martin Schlegel, respalda la propuesta del gobierno de 100% de cobertura de capital de las filiales extranjeras de UBS, rechazando las críticas del director ejecutivo del banco a la gestión de las autoridades en la crisis de Credit Suisse.
Global markets dip ahead of Trump-Xi summit amid inflation and geopolitical risks
U.S. stocks and bond yields surged on concerns over inflation and trade tensions as President Trump hosted Chinese President Xi for a high-stakes summit.
La BCE ve presiones salariales limitadas en medio de la inflación impulsada por la energía
El economista jefe del Banco Central Europeo, Philip Lane, dice que el crecimiento salarial sigue siendo moderado pese al aumento de los costes energéticos, lo que limita los riesgos de inflación.
El crédito a las empresas en la zona euro disminuye drásticamente ante las subidas de tipos de la BCE
La disponibilidad de crédito para las empresas cayó a la mitad en agosto, ya que los mayores costes de endeudamiento obstaculizan la financiación empresarial.
La venta masiva de bonos globales impulsa los rendimientos de los bonos británicos hasta un máximo de 19 años antes del presupuesto
Una venta de bonos del gobierno ha llevado los rendimientos de los bonos del Reino Unido a 5,38%, erosionando gran parte del margen fiscal con el que cuenta el canciller John Healey antes del presupuesto del próximo mes.
El SNB mantiene las tasas en cero mientras se lleva a cabo la especulación sobre un aumento de las tasas
El Banco Nacional Suizo mantuvo su tasa clave en el 0,00% y mejoró sus perspectivas de inflación, aunque los economistas están divididos en relación con cuándo (o si) ocurrirá un aumento de las tasas.
Xi afirma que EE. UU. y China pueden superar la “trampa de Tucídides”
El presidente chino, Xi Jinping, le dijo a Donald Trump en la Casa Blanca que el temido conflicto entre una potencia en ascenso y una consolidada es evitabel, indicando un cambio respecto a su retórica anterior.
U.S. and China Reach Preliminary Trade Agreement on Select Goods, Details Due Monday
USTR Jamieson Greer said the two sides have agreed on terms for U.S. agricultural products, medical devices and non‑sensitive Chinese consumer goods, with further specifics slated for release Monday.
Rusia afirma que aprecia 'de verdad' la invitación del G20, pero no ha tomado una decisión sobre la asistencia de Putin
Moscú recibió con benevolencia la invitación de Washington a Putin para que asista a una cumbre del G20 en Miami este diciembre, lo que provocó fuertes críticas por parte de los líderes europeos, que calificaron la medida como una peligrosa normalización de la agresión.
Los futuros de las acciones estadounidenses caen ante el aumento de los rendimientos, y el petróleo sube ante las tensiones en el Medio Oriente
Los futuros del S&P 500, del Nasdaq-100 y del Dow cayeron moderadamente, mientras que el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro a 10 años superó el 5,2% y el precio del petróleo crudo aumentó más del 3% después de un ataque con misiles de los huíes a instalaciones de Arabia Saudí.
U.S. 10-Year Yield Climbs for Sixth Week as Bond Rout Deepens
The benchmark 10-year Treasury nears 5.23%, a level not seen since 2007, while the 30-year breaches 5.50%—the highest since 2004—sparking concern across equity and fixed-income markets.
Vujcic, del BCE, advierte de que los precios del diésel podrían aumentar la inflación general de la eurozona
El vicepresidente de la BCE, Boris Vujcic, advirtió de que los costos energéticos persistentemente altos podrían menoscabar el crecimiento, moderando las expectativas del mercado en cuanto a los fuertes incrementos de las tasas.
Los precios de los paquetes turísticos de la UE aumentan un 3,2 % en agosto, mientras que los precios de los billetes de avión disminuyen un 0,4 %
Los datos de Eurostat muestran que los costes de los vacaciones organizadas en el mercado único se ajustaron a la tasa de inflación del bloque del 3,2% en agosto de 2026, mientras que los precios del transporte aéreo de personas bajaron un 0,4% interanual.
Hungría podría reducir las tasas este año si avanza el plan euro, dice el gobernador adjunto
El Banco Nacional de Hungría mantuvo su tasa de interés estable en el 5,5 % y redujo su objetivo de inflación al 2,5 %. El subgobernador Zoltan Kurali aseguró que es posible realizar otra reducción a finales de año si se logra la claridad fiscal y avanza la adopción del euro.
La herramienta FedWatch muestra un 56% de posibilidades de subir los tipos en septiembre de 2026
Los cambios en los precios de mercado tras el discurso de Warsh en Jackson Hole elevan las probabilidades de un ajuste de 25 puntos básicos a casi el 56 % en la reunión del FOMC del 16 de septiembre.
Los inversores están preocupados por las crisis de crecimiento y los aumentos de los tipos de interés
Las tensiones geopolíticas y las rentabilidades del tesoro dominan la semana de las Bolsas: el precio del petróleo Brent se mantiene estable, el SMI supera los 14 000 puntos sólo temporalmente
US Proposes Trilateral Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks in UAE
Zelenskyy confirms Washington floated a meeting in the Emirates to discuss ending the war; Kremlin says talks have begun but offers no details on timing.
Morgan Stanley Upgrades BoE Hike Expectations to Two 25-BP Cuts Amid Fiscal Tightening
Analysts at Morgan Stanley revised their forecast for the Bank of England to two quarterly rate hikes—both 25 basis points—following a fiscal backdrop that limits monetary policy flexibility.
Euro Zone Business Lending Growth Eases to 4.2% in August
ECB data shows corporate credit expansion slows from mid-2023 highs while household lending remains steady at 3.1%.
U.S. 10-year yield hits 6-week high, bond rout continues
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.225%, its highest level since July 2007, as the bond rout deepens. The 30-year yield also hit a 22-year high.
Eurozone M3 money supply growth accelerates to 3.5% in August
Economic expansion pressures persist as broad money supply M3 rises fastest since May 2025, while credit trends diverge between households and non-financial firms.
Schweizer Ökonomen erhöhen Wachstumsprognose für 2026 und 2027 auf 1,7 Prozent
Expertenrevisionen deuten auf stärkere Investitionen und stabilere Preisentwicklung hin, während der Arbeitsmarkt und der Franken stabil bleiben
Asia stocks retreat amid bond market stress and geopolitical uncertainty
Global bond selloffs and unresolved tensions in U.S.-China trade negotiations weighed on regional equities, while oil prices remained volatile.
UK consumer confidence rises but inflation pressures may reverse gains
GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer hit a two-year high in September, but rising energy costs and inflation risk undermining a post-election recovery.
Eurozone PMI hits 3½-year high amid Iran conflict, ECB inflation outlook raised
Business activity surged to its strongest level since April 2023 despite Middle East tensions and energy price pressures.
US-Aktienmärkte leiden unter Zinserwartungen und Ölpreisschocks
Meta und Logitech unter Druck; Schweizer SMI leicht im Minus, während Nestlé und Novartis stabil bleiben.
U.S. Treasury yields hit 20-year highs, pressuring global equities
A bond selloff pushed longer-dated U.S. yields to multi-decade peaks, raising borrowing costs and dampening Asian and global markets.
ECB's Schnabel Expected to Leave Early for IMF Post
The central banker's eight-year tenure was set to run through late 2027, but a switch to the International Monetary Fund may be announced as early as Thursday.
Philadelphia Fed President Paulson signals possible modest rate hikes to curb inflation
Anna Paulson said further tightening may be needed as underlying inflation stays around 2.5%-3%, after the Fed lifted rates to a 3.75%-4% range.
ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel to Join IMF as Financial Counsellor in January 2027
Schnabel will leave the ECB’s Executive Board on 3 January 2027 and assume the IMF post the following day, after receiving clearance from the ECB’s Ethics Committee. President Christine Lagarde praised her contributions to inflation targeting and institutional modernization.
ECB Director Isabel Schnabel to Join IMF in January 2027
ECB announced that director Isabel Schnabel will leave the central bank early, effective 3 Jan 2027, to head the IMF’s Money and Capital Markets Department from 4 Jan. Her eight‑year term was due to end at the end of 2027.
U.S. Current-Account Deficit Rises to $246B in Q2 2026
The U.S. trade and investment position widened further in the second quarter, with a current-account deficit expanding by $33.4 billion to $246.0 billion.
Federal Reserve Proposes Rules to Implement Stablecoin GENIUS Act
The Fed released two proposals covering capital requirements, reserve rules and the treatment of stablecoin rewards, joining other agencies in finalizing regulations under last year's GENIUS Act.
Fed releases September 2026 Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey
The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 survey of 17 major dealer institutions finds credit terms on securities financing and OTC derivatives largely unchanged, while hedge‑fund negotiation intensity rose modestly and equity collateral spreads widened.
Fed September Hike Odds Fall to 25% as Soft Inflation Data Lulls Markets
July CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, pushing rate-hike probability from roughly 60% to a quarter and easing pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to tighten further.
SNB maintains zero rates amid inflation concerns, defends UBS capital rules
Swiss central bank leaves key rate unchanged at 0%, rejects calls for rate hikes despite inflation pressures and franc weakness.
China Confirms First AI Talks With U.S., Hints at Trade Truce Extension
Beijing confirmed senior negotiators held initial AI discussions with Washington and discussed tariff reductions and extending a trade truce set to expire in January.
ECB projects euro area inflation spike to 3% in 2026, growth to slow
The European Central Bank raised its 2027–2028 inflation forecasts and upgraded 2026–2027 GDP growth, projecting headline inflation at 3% next year as energy costs rebound.
U.S. yields hit 5% as PMI data and bond auctions drive market sell-off
U.S. Treasury yields surge past 5% as strong PMI data and failed bond auctions spark sharp sell-off, with traders pricing in another Fed rate hike.
Euro Yields Surge on Strong PMI Data, Boosting Case for More ECB Rate Hikes
Germany's 10-year Bund yield hit 3.549% as flash PMI data showed euro zone business activity accelerating at the fastest pace in over three years, stoking expectations the ECB will continue raising rates.
EZB-Zinserhöhung im Dezember erwartet: Institute sehen weitere Anstiege im Euroraum
Die führenden Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute erwarten eine weitere Erhöhung der Leitzinsen durch die EZB im Dezember 2024, mit einem möglichen Quartalszins von 2,75 %. Energiepreise und Inflation bleiben zentrale Treiber für die geldpolitische Entscheidung.
SNB Leaves Rates at 0% Amid Rising Swiss Inflation
Swiss central bank maintains benchmark rate at zero percent despite inflation pressures, citing energy price spikes as key driver.
SNB Holds Rates at 0% Amid Rising Inflation and Global Uncertainty
Swiss National Bank leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% while noting elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical risks.
Switzerland's SNB Keeps Rates at 0% Amid Global Tightening
Switzerland's central bank defies global rate hikes, but markets expect a move by early 2027. The Swiss franc's strength and unique economic factors help keep inflation low.
U.S. Stock Futures Drop as Treasury Yields Top 5%; Trump-Xi Talks Begin
Futures fell across the board as the 10-year Treasury yield surged past 5%, its highest since 2007, while the Trump-Xi summit opened in Washington with trade and AI on the agenda.
Global bond sell-off deepens as US economy fuel rate-hike bets
US Treasury yields surge past 5% on both the five- and 10-year benchmarks as strong PMI data and rebounding oil prices stoke bets on further Federal Reserve rate increases.
Global Bond Yields Nudge Near 4% as Selling Pressure Mounts
The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Treasuries Index yield rose to 3.99%, its highest level since 2007, amid persistent inflation, fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions.
ECB Chief Economist Sees No Major Wage Pressure Despite Rising Inflation
Philip Lane says inflation exceeding 3% is not being transmitted into pay demands, as firms cite Chinese competition and automation as reasons to hold wages steady.
UAE central bank bans Iran's Bank Melli from all transactions
The UAE's central bank has prohibited Iran's state‑owned Bank Melli from conducting any financial activity in the Emirates, citing violations of anti‑money‑laundering, terrorism‑financing and weapons‑proliferation laws.
Swiss economic calendar: key data and earnings Sep 24‑Oct 1, 2026
The Swiss market will see a series of corporate results, central bank assessments and macro data releases, including the SNB's monetary assessment, KOF forecasts, Roche Pharma Day and multiple earnings reports.
Trump hosts Xi in US, extends tariff pause to Jan
President Donald Trump welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a three‑day summit, during which a trade‑pause agreement was lengthened to Jan. 10, amid low expectations for a broader deal.
Swiss Central Bank May Raise Rates as Inflation Outlook Improves: Swiss Life
Chief economist Marc Brütsch says the SNB could lift its policy rate from zero, while jobless recovery and AI-driven labor shifts shape the economic outlook.
European officials warn of rising Russian sabotage while assessing no imminent NATO attack risk
European officials have warned of increasing Russian sabotage activity while noting they see no immediate risk of a NATO attack.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin comments on firming activity and inflation pressures
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said economic activity is firming while inflation pressures persist.
US Treasury sells $70 billion in 5-year notes
The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion of 5‑year notes.
Fed's Barr Cites Tariffs, Geopolitics, and AI Demand as Inflation Drivers
Governor Michael S. Barr said the FOMC increased the policy rate last week and further adjustments may be needed as shelter costs and broader inflation remain elevated.
Reinhart warns sovereign debt could spark crisis, calls for fiscal discipline
Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart cautioned that rising sovereign debt may trigger a sudden crisis, emphasizing the limits of low‑interest policies and the risk of fiscal dominance.
OECD raises 2026 growth forecast amid high oil prices, warns 2027 risks
Global growth is projected to rise to 2.9% in 2026, defying elevated oil prices, but downside risks loom for 2027.
China's self‑sufficiency drive reshapes US‑China trade outlook ahead of Trump‑Xi summit
China's push for domestic production and lower reliance on exports limits the impact of U.S. tariffs, while a still‑large trade deficit and slowing high‑tech exports keep pressure on the bilateral relationship.
Zelenskyy pushes for trilateral peace meeting, 'energy ceasefire' with Russia
Ukraine's president told Trump at the UNGA he is ready for direct talks with Putin on an energy truce and urged Washington to engage China's Xi on the conflict.
Schweiz bleibt im Global Retirement Index auf Platz 4, aber materielles Wohlstandsrisiko bleibt
Die Schweiz bleibt im Natixis Global Retirement Index 2026 auf Platz 4, doch ein Rückgang im Bereich materielles Wohlstand zeigt Schwächen in der Altersvorsorge.
Richmond Fed President Barkin says economy may be firming, inflation not limited to energy and tariff shocks
Richmond Fed President Barkin said the economy may be firming while inflation remains broader than just energy and tariff shocks.
European Central Bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points amid inflation concerns fueled by the Iran war and oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel
The European Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points, citing inflation worries linked to the Iran conflict and oil prices above $100 a barrel.
Swiss President Urges Multilateralism at UN, Warns of Protectionist Threats
Guy Parmelin told the 81st UN General Assembly that global institutions must step up as violations of Charter principles and rising protectionism strain international cooperation.
ECB opens merchant applications for 2027 digital euro pilot
The European Central Bank is inviting e-commerce and mobile-commerce operators in the euro area to apply by Oct. 27 for a 12-month beta pilot starting in the second half of 2027.
US stock futures edge up as Treasury yields, inflation data weigh on markets
Futures move slightly higher while investors brace for upcoming wholesale and consumer inflation reports.
ECB's Kazaks says case for more monetary tightening is building
The ECB policymaker signaled that conditions are shifting in favor of additional rate increases.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson says discount window enhancements support market liquidity
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that recent discount window enhancements are intended to support market liquidity.
Trump and Xi to Discuss A.I. Risks and Competition at US-China Summit
US and Chinese leaders will address artificial intelligence risks and competition at this week's summit, though expectations are tempered by a lack of consensus.
Switzerland Drops in Global Retirement Ranking as Inflation Pressures Pensions
Switzerland falls to fourth place in the Natixis Global Retirement Index as rising inflation, state debt and aging populations squeeze pension systems worldwide.
US Bond Yields Fall as Oil Price Slide Eases Inflation Fears
Fifth straight session of declining crude prices bolstered demand for Treasuries, pulling the 10-year yield below 5% for the first time in a week.
US inflation outlier driven by tariffs, AI memory prices
Goldman Sachs says the apparent US inflation surge stems mainly from temporary tariff effects and AI‑related memory price rises, while underlying services and labor costs remain contained.
Swiss Parliament Approves Online Access to AHV and IV Data from 2028
The National Council and Council of States backed a digital platform that will let insured persons view their old‑age and disability insurance records online starting in 2028, aiming to cut paper costs and highlight contribution gaps.
German growth outlook revised up to 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2027
Leading German economic research institutes raised their GDP forecasts, citing infrastructure spending and reduced geopolitical risks as key drivers.
Deutsche Bank forecasts two BoE rate hikes in November and February as inflation eases
The bank shifted from expecting no further increases to projecting two quarter‑point rises, citing the September MPC minutes that showed waning tolerance for elevated inflation and limited second‑round effects. It notes the moves would be insurance hikes, with rates still guided by energy prices and a Taylor Rule estimate just above 4%.
Carney Says He Spoke With Trump on Ukraine, Iran
The Canadian prime minister said he has held recent calls with President Trump covering the war in Ukraine and Iran-related issues, amid an ongoing trade dispute between the two nations.
German Economy Shows Early Signs of Slowing Mid-Year
Industry and domestic demand indicators suggest a weakening in Germany’s post-pandemic recovery, despite recent positive business sentiment.
Euro area sovereign yields rise as French debt risk spikes
French OAT yields hit 4.5% and CDS spreads surge to 2020 highs, while German yields stay near 3.2% after the ECB lifted rates to 2.5%, raising concerns over euro‑zone fiscal health.
Swiss Retirement Savings Falls Short, Equity Interest Surges in Survey
BNP Paribas survey finds Swiss rate financial security at 6.1/10, down from 6.4, as two-thirds fear AHV and pensions won't maintain living standards.
AI Safety Concerns, Hormuz Talks Delayed: Market Impact
Stocks and commodities react to AI safety disclosures and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with oil prices surging and tech stocks declining.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem says further rate hikes may be needed to quell inflation
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate hikes may be required to curb inflation driven by strong demand and a commodity price shock.
FTSE 100 edges higher as UK borrowing data heightens Budget pressure
Sterling stabilizes and equities edge up as August public sector borrowing hits a record £18.3 billion, compressing Chancellor John Healey’s fiscal headroom ahead of the October Budget.
FINMA Enforcement Proceedings Surge 45% Amid 2025 Volatility
The Swiss regulator concluded 55 enforcement cases last year, up sharply from 38, as on-site inspections intensified across UBS and the wider banking sector.
UK borrowing jumps to £18.3bn in August, £3.5bn above OBR forecast
Public finances data show Britain borrowed £18.3bn in August, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £3.5bn and the City estimate by £2.7bn. Net debt is just under £3tn, or 94% of GDP.
ECB raises benchmark interest rate to 2.5% to combat inflation from Middle East conflict
The European Central Bank increased its benchmark rate to 2.5 percent, citing inflation pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.
ECB's Panetta: AI gain distribution will shape inflation dynamics
Fabio Panetta warned that whether artificial intelligence boosts demand through new tasks or suppresses it via automation will determine the timing and magnitude of inflationary or disinflationary pressures.
Saudi Arabia withdraws from mBridge CBDC project after proof of concept
SAMA ended participation in a China-led cross-border digital currency initiative following a successful pilot in May 2025, marking an exit from a BIS-backed platform designed for central bank digital currency transactions.
SNB Releases Key Monetary Policy Statistics on September 21, 2026
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) published updated economic and monetary policy data, including liquidity and foreign exchange reserves metrics, on September 21, 2026.
ECB finds natural gas price surges could feed eurozone inflation faster than before
The European Central Bank says recent spikes in natural gas prices may translate into inflationary pressure in the euro area more quickly than in the past.
Federal Reserve Raises Target Rate to 3.75%-4% With 25-Point Hike
The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, according to the primary announcement dated Sept. 16.
U.S. Treasury Yields Cross 5% as Fed Raises Rates for First Time in Three Years
BlackRock sees AI-driven financing demands of nearly $8 trillion annually by 2030 and a structurally steeper yield curve lifting the cost of capital.
Russia's pro-Putin party wins wartime election with over 57% of vote
Near-complete results show the ruling party securing over 57% in what is being described as a wartime election in Russia.
German state elections show AfD gains and left-wing demands, economists warn of democratic strain
Economists say the rise of the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the left’s victory in Berlin signal growing pressure on the political centre and threaten prospects for compromise‑based policy. They caution that populist proposals could undermine reforms and increase the likelihood of further AfD gains.
Schweizer Inflation steigt weiter – SGKB warnt vor Basiseffekten
Die Teuerung in der Schweiz beschleunigt sich, doch Experten betonen statistische Gründe und begrenzte Risiken für eine nachhaltige Erhöhung der Preise.
Weidmann Warns EU Against Over-Reliance on Large Banks
Jens Weidmann, former Bundesbank president and ECB board member, urged Europe to prioritize banks with sustainable business models over sheer size, amid concerns over debt and regulatory burdens.
Key Markets Themes: Trade Talks, Flash PMIs, Costco Earnings This Week
U.S.-China AI and trade talks dominate as flash PMIs and Costco results round out a busy earnings and economic data week.
United Russia on track for decisive win as Ukraine launches major Moscow drone attack
United Russia leads the September 21 State Duma election with 57.5% of votes counted, while Ukraine carried out its largest drone strike on the Moscow region on the final voting day.
European Stocks Slide After ECB Lifts Rates to Highest Since April 2025
STOXX 600 fell 0.7% as the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, while Brent crude breached $100 a barrel amid surging eurozone inflation.
German Chancellor, Merz's Party Face Fallout After State Election Loss
Political repercussions are emerging after a defeat in German state elections, with economic stability concerns also being raised.
Euro Yields Hold Multi-Year Peaks as Crude Surges Ahead of Central Bank Decisions
German bunds stay near 13-year highs as Brent crude jumps to $112 a barrel on Middle East tensions, with Fed and ECB policymakers bracing for fresh inflationary pressure.
Companies Rush to Assess Impact of U.S.-Canada Tariffs
President Trump's levies on an eclectic list of Canadian products have businesses scrambling to determine whether their supply chains are affected.
SNB Faces Rising Risk of Earlier Rate Hike Amid Rising Swiss Inflation
UBS and other economists now assess a higher likelihood of the Swiss National Bank raising rates sooner than previously expected, driven by inflation pressures and geopolitical risks.
ECB wage tracker shows 2.7% negotiated wage growth projected for H1 2027
The ECB’s forward‑looking wage tracker, based on collective bargaining agreements signed through August 2026, indicates a modest rise in euro‑area wage pressures, with employee coverage still limited but expected to grow.
Federal Reserve faces an upcoming interest rate decision and messaging challenge under Chairman Kevin Warsh
The Federal Reserve is preparing for an upcoming rate decision while confronting a messaging challenge under Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Putin's United Russia wins Russian parliamentary election with two-thirds majority
United Russia secures 57.9% of votes and over 300 Duma seats in election critics call a farce, giving Putin a mandate to continue the war in Ukraine.
Wall Street week shaped by Federal Reserve rate path, oil prices, and AI concerns
The upcoming week on Wall Street is set to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory, oil price movements, and developments in artificial intelligence.
Daily International Economic & Financial Calendar: 21 September 2026
Key corporate and macro events include Unicredit EGM, Societe Generale capital markets day, Chicago Fed activity data, and Fed speaker Goolsbee.
Swiss Economic Calendar: SNB Policy Update, Federal Votes, Roche Pharma Day This Week
The Swiss National Bank will release its balance of payments and monetary policy assessment this week, alongside federal votes on Sep 27 and earnings from firms including Hilti, Hilti and Roche.
Swiss producer and import prices rise 0.7% in August as energy costs climb
The Federal Statistical Office reported a 0.7% month-on-month increase in the combined producer and import price index to 100.4 points, driven by higher oil and gas prices. Annual PPI remained negative at -0.7%, while the consumer price index rose to 0.8% year-on-year in August 2026.
US stock futures inch up ahead of expected Fed rate hike
Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rose modestly as traders priced in a 25‑basis‑point Fed increase to 3.75‑4% on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023.
Euro zone bond yields hold near multi-year peaks ahead of Fed rate decision
German Bund yields remain at their highest level since 2011, with short‑term Schatz rates near a three‑year high, as markets price a 92% chance of a 25‑basis‑point Federal Reserve hike. Brent crude stays above $113 a barrel, reinforcing inflation concerns that keep euro‑area debt yields elevated.
Euro Zone Yields Hold Near Multi-Year Peaks Ahead of Fed Decision
German bunds and schatz yields traded at levels unseen since 2011 and three years respectively as traders weighed a likely Fed rate hike and soaring Brent crude above $113.
Nomura forecasts two additional European Central Bank interest rate hikes for December and March
Nomura projects two further ECB rate hikes, one in December and another in March.
Upcoming US FOMC Meeting Prompts Market Views on Potential Rate Cuts and Target Ranges
Markets are watching an upcoming U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting for possible interest‑rate cuts and the associated target range.
Donald Trump says US should have world's lowest interest rate ahead of Fed meeting
Former President Donald Trump said the United States should hold the world's lowest interest rate as the Federal Reserve prepares for its next policy meeting.
ECB lifts key rate to 2.5% as Iran war fuels energy-driven inflation
The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, citing sustained inflation pressures from Middle East conflict and energy shocks that will keep prices well above target.
US trade deficit widens to $88.6 billion in July
The deficit expanded 24.4% from June to $88.6 bn, as imports rose 2.8% and exports fell 2.1%, with capital‑goods imports jumping 11.4% – the biggest rise since 1993.
Pakistan imposes market curfew and fuel austerity as protests cost Rs120bn daily
Pakistan is closing markets at 9pm and tightening fuel-austerity rules as Finance Minister flags protests and sit-ins are inflicting around Rs120bn in daily economic losses.
UK Inflation Accelerates to 3.1% in August on Fuel Price Surge
Headline inflation rose from 2.9% in July as motor fuel costs jumped 23%, pushing the rate to its highest since December 2025.
Missouri Redistricting Dispute Intensifies Ahead of US Midterms
Missouri's top court subpoenas local officials amid conflicting orders over a Trump-backed electoral map less than two months before the Nov. 3 midterms.
SNB Rate Decision Leads Busy Week of Global Central Bank Announcements
The Swiss National Bank joins Norges Bank, the Riksbank, and Banxico on Thursday's slate of policy meetings, alongside Chinese LPR decisions, global flash PMIs, and a US-China summit.
Fed Meeting Sets Up Hawkish Trap for Warsh; Bitcoin Awaits Verdict
Markets have priced in a near-certain quarter-point rate hike and further tightening this year, leaving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh little room to disappoint without triggering a sharp rethink of the dollar and bond yields.
Lagarde Quashes Speculation on Early Exit, Eyes Post-ECB WEF Role
ECB President Christine Lagarde dismissed rumors of a premature departure, while director Isabel Schnabel is reportedly in talks with the IMF for a senior post.
Angola's central bank cuts its key lending rate by 100 basis points as inflation falls to single digits
Angola's central bank reduced its key lending rate by 100 basis points after inflation moved into single‑digit territory.
Swiss Firms Could Get Up to $2 Billion in US Tariff Refunds: UBS
UBS economists say Swiss exporters may recover up to $2 billion after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump-era tariffs, though effective duty rates remain far below headline levels.
US Markets Slip on Higher Producer Prices; Oil Tops $100
The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 lost 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.7% as unexpected US producer-price growth stoked inflation worries and pushed WTI crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since May.
SMI Expected Higher After Tuesday Loss; Markets Await Fed Rate Call
The Swiss Market Index opens in positive territory ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, while oil retreats and crypto stocks stumble on regulatory headlines.
ECB Raises Rates to 2.50% as Mideast Conflict Stokes Inflation Fears
The European Central Bank lifted its main deposit rate by 25 basis points and flagged persistent price pressures from the Iran war, lifting its inflation outlook for 2027 and 2028.
Kashkari Says Inflation Pressures Extend Beyond Oil Prices
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari argued that US price pressures run deeper than energy costs, even as crude prices eased and the central bank holds rates at 3.75%-4.00%.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Says Inflation Pressures Extend Beyond Oil Prices
Kashkari told Fox News that inflation pressures are broader than just oil price movements.
U.S. Treasury yields climb ahead of upcoming CPI data release
U.S. Treasury yields are rising as the market awaits the upcoming CPI data release.
US tariff revenue exceeds refunds paid out for the first time in months
US tariff collections have surpassed the amount refunded to importers for the first time in several months, according to recent trade data.
Swiss asking rents fall for first time in five years
Newhome data shows a 1.7% drop in national listing prices from July 2025 to July 2026, led by sharp declines in Ticino and Zurich.
ECB Raises Key Rates by 25 Basis Points to 2.5%
The European Central Bank delivered its expected quarter-point hike, citing resilient growth and persistent Middle East-driven inflation pressures.
US producer prices rise 0.4% in August, adding to Fed rate-hike pressure
August producer-price data came in hotter than expected, pushing 30-year Treasury yields to their highest since 2007 and lifting probability of a September rate hike to roughly 65%.
ECB raises deposit rate to 2.50% amid sticky inflation
The European Central Bank delivered a fourth quarter rate hike as expected, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50% against inflation still at 3.3% in the euro area.
US Initial Jobless Claims Fall Slightly to 206,000
US unemployment claims dipped 1,000 to 206,000 last week, staying near historic lows and reinforcing the case for a potential Fed rate hike next week.
Swiss economy expands 1.9% in Q2, accelerating from first quarter
Switzerland's GDP grew 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, marking a sharp acceleration from the 0.6% gain in Q1 as annual growth reached 2.8%.
Swiss Anti-Nuclear Referendum Clear Hurdle With 125K Signatures
A broad coalition has gathered more than double the required signatures to force a national vote on banning new nuclear power plants, potentially putting the issue before Swiss voters by February 2027.
Asian Markets and Oil Prices Pause Ahead of U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Bond yields, crude benchmarks, and major equity indices across Asia are consolidating as traders await the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision.
UK Inflation Expected to Rise to 3.1% in August on Fuel and AI Pressure
British inflation is forecast to climb from 2.9% to 3.1%, driven by higher fuel costs and an "AI-flation" effect from chip shortages, while gilt yields hit a 2007 high.
EZB erhöht Leitzins auf Rekordhoch – Inflation bleibt über Zielwert
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hob den Einlagensatz auf 2,50 % an, nachdem die Inflation im Euroraum bei 3,3 % blieb und über dem Zielwert von 2,0 % lag.
ECB raises key rates by 25 bps, deposit facility to 2.50%
The ECB Governing Council lifted its deposit, main refinancing and marginal lending rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively, citing persistent inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict.
ECB Raises Key Interest Rate to 2.5%, Highest Since Early 2025
The European Central Bank hiked its deposit facility rate by a quarter-point to 2.50%, citing persistent inflation well above its 2% target amid Middle East conflict-driven energy costs.
US jobless claims rise slightly amid stable but cautious labor market
Initial claims rose 2,000 to 206,000 in the latest week, while continuing claims climbed by 8,000 to 1.78 million, signaling persistent hiring caution.
France’s debt hits 119.3% of GDP in 2026, EU monitoring continues
Public debt projections exceed EU limits, with deficits expected to remain above 5% through 2027 amid fiscal adjustments and economic challenges.
U.S. trade deficit hits $88.6 bn in July, widest since early 2025
Imports surged while exports fell, with capital goods imports rising 11.4%—the largest increase since 1993—driven by AI infrastructure demand.
BIS chief warns AI capex arms race relies on opaque debt, posing systemic risks
BIS chief Pablo Hernandez cautions that AI spending funded by opaque debt could create systemic risks, citing past railway and dot‑com bubbles.
Stournaras Warns ECB on Inflation Risks, Rates to Stay Cautious
ECB member cautions against hasty rate moves amid persistent inflation pressures and geopolitical risks.
Markets rally on Fed rate-hike bets, yen strength amid mixed signals
U.S. equities and bonds advanced on Thursday as investors weighed Federal Reserve commentary and a Bank of Japan rate decision, with the yen surging and crude prices fluctuating.
Markets Price 90% Chance of First Rate Hike Under Fed Chair Warsh
Financing-indicator odds sit near 90% for a 25-basis-point lift at Wednesday's FOMC meeting, pushing rates to 3.75%-4.00%. Inflation remains at 3.4%.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to Meet at JPMorgan HQ
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet at JPMorgan headquarters to discuss AI security and trade.
China holds benchmark lending rates for 16th straight month
The PBOC kept its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, reflecting narrow room for monetary easing amid U.S.-China policy divergence and weak credit demand.
Swiss Unions Demand 2.5% Wage Hike to Counter Inflation and Purchasing-Power Crisis
The Swiss Trades' Confederation is calling for a across-the-board 2.5% salary increase, citing lagging real wages, rising health-insurance costs and a deep purchasing-power squeeze affecting workers nationwide.
SEC Moves Toward Round-the-Clock Securities Trading
The SEC held a roundtable on extending traditional market hours to 24/5, noting tokenization could enable real-time settlement and faster investor response.
Trump Threatens Trade Cuts Over Fed Zinserhöhung
US President Donald Trump reiterated threats to impose trade restrictions on certain nations if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates, amid a strong August jobs report and persistent inflation.
Japan to Release July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Data on September 14, 2026
The data will be complemented by Austria hosting the International Atomic Energy Agency's general conference in Vienna.
ECB Expected to Raise Key Interest Rate Amid Spiking Eurozone Inflation
The ECB is expected to raise its key interest rate as Eurozone inflation accelerates amid energy and geopolitical pressures.
Sep 16, 2026 Preview: Key Economic Data Releases and Corporate Events
The day features investor days for Salesforce and On Semiconductor, alongside a slate of UK, Italian and euro‑area inflation and activity data, US retail sales, trade prices, housing indicators and a Federal Reserve policy decision, plus legal and banking‑sector events in France and Germany.
Swiss Economic Calendar: Data Releases and Corporate Events, Sept 14–21
A week of Swiss macro data, earnings and conferences including Repower, R&S, Aevis, Helvetia Baloise, UBS banking-law debate and the Investora conference.
Wall Street volatility driven by prospect of a new Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle and AI safety fears
Market turbulence on Wall Street is linked to expectations of a fresh Federal Reserve rate‑hiking cycle and concerns over AI safety.
Goldman Sachs now expects Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in September
The revision follows stronger-than-expected US producer price data and oil price rises above $100 per barrel, raising expectations of further monetary tightening.
BIS Chief Warns AI Boom Poses New Financial Stability Risks
Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos cautioned that rampant AI investment funded increasingly by debt could create vulnerabilities in the financial system.
Germany Inflation Rate Climbs to 2.9 Percent on Expensive Energy
Rising energy costs push Germany's headline inflation to 2.9 percent, while core inflation also climbs to 2.4 percent year on year.
Federal Reserve Issues New Report on Silicon Valley Bank Collapse
The Fed has published a new regulatory report examining the circumstances behind the bank's failure, which could inform future banking oversight.
Japan posts trade deficit for fourth month as soaring oil prices stoke import costs
Japan's trade balance slipped into negative territory for a fourth straight month, weighed down by steep energy import bills amid elevated global oil prices.
Swiss Economy Surges 1.9% in Second Quarter on Strong Momentum
Switzerland's GDP expanded 1.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, accelerating sharply from the first quarter's 0.6% gain, while annual growth jumped to 2.8%.
Eurozone stocks rebound from lows as weak payrolls temper rate bets
European indices recovered from one-month lows amid mixed economic data, with producer prices surging and U.S. payrolls falling short of expectations.
EU chief heads to Greenland to bolster Arctic ally amid Trump annexation threats
Von der Leyen seeks fresh funding for Danish territory as Trump renews push to acquire Greenland on security grounds.
UBS Outlines Holdings to Favor and Avoid as Fed Rate Hike Looms
Wealth manager UBS has identified investments to own and steer clear of as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase build.
EU Pledges €200M Funding Boost for Greenland Amid Trump Annexation Pressure
The European Union committed a fresh €200 million funding package to Greenland, backing the territory's deepening Arctic partnership with Brussels even as Donald Trump renews his push to acquire the island.
Extreme weather and disasters claim thousands globally in August–September 2026
A series of devastating earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions and typhoons struck Colombia, Nepal, Indonesia, China and the Philippines, with economic losses and casualties exceeding 1,000 fatalities in some cases.
UK imposes settlement sanctions despite US economic warnings
Britain bans imports from Israeli West Bank settlements and expands arms export restrictions, drawing reprimands from Washington and retaliatory moves from Israel.
Euro Zone Yields Hold Near Multi-Year Peaks Ahead of ECB Decision
German bund yields hovered near multi-year highs as energy-driven inflation pressured the ECB, while surging U.S. PPI data pushed Treasuries higher and reshaped rate-hike expectations.
UK defends settlement sanctions after Israel orders consulate closure
London imposes import ban on Israeli West Bank goods as Israel demands consulate shut within 30 days and bars entry for 12 British lawmakers.
Eurozone yields near record highs ahead of ECB rate decision
German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries both hit multi-year peaks as inflation data and Fed policy expectations shape market expectations.
Sweden’s election looms amid fiscal pressures from defense spending and welfare demands
Defense spending surges as NATO membership reshapes budget priorities, while domestic welfare and tax cuts face tighter fiscal constraints ahead of the vote.
Iran Flags Soaring Inflation, U.S. Tightens Sea Blockade and Sanctions
Iran's interior ministry called steep price rises 'worrying' as bread costs doubled in a week, while the U.S. expanded sanctions targeting Tehran's key economic sectors.
Denmark, Greenland and US announce breakthrough on Greenland security pact
Denmark and Greenland say a deal with the United States granting Washington broad security authority over the Arctic island will be signed next week, pending UN and parliamentary approval.
Global central banks drive coordinated credit tightening amid inflation pressures
The Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan move in parallel as Middle East conflicts fuel energy-price inflation, with markets pricing nearly four more quarter-point hikes over the coming year.
Ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, Donald Trump says US should have world's lowest interest rate
Former President Donald Trump said the United States should maintain the lowest interest rate globally ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting.
US Federal Reserve raises benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%
The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, setting the range at 3.75% to 4.00%.
U.S. inflation outpaces wage growth in August, squeezing household budgets
Consumer prices rose 3.4% YoY in August while average hourly earnings increased 3.1%, leaving real wages down 0.1% from July and prompting shoppers to shift toward discount retailers.
Trump tariffs and Iran war pressure Fed toward first rate hike since 2023
Higher oil prices, new tariffs on Canada and ongoing Iran conflict have shifted market expectations to multiple Fed hikes, putting new chair Kevin Warsh’s credibility on the line.
China's August Retail Sales Miss Forecast as Investment Slump Deepens
Retail sales grew just 0.4% in August, missing forecasts, while urban fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% year-to-date. Industrial output surprised to the upside at 5.2%.
Global markets prepare for week with US-China summit, UN General Assembly and PMI data
Investors watch a US‑China presidential summit, the UN General Assembly and global PMI releases as key themes for the coming week.
Asian shares slide as oil prices spike on supply concerns and investors brace for US and Japan rate decisions
Asian equity markets declined while oil prices rose amid supply worries, with investors awaiting upcoming rate decisions from the United States and Japan.
European Central Bank raises interest rates in prior week's monetary policy decision
The European Central Bank announced an interest rate increase in its latest monetary policy decision.
Fed Survey Shows Modest Growth, Moderate Price Gains Across Districts
The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book found economic activity rose modestly and prices increased at a moderate pace, with energy costs and tariff concerns weighing on sentiment ahead of the September policy meeting.
SMI Expected Lower as Oil Above $100 Weighs on Global Markets
Swiss index slides amid rising oil, inflation fears; Meta surges on AI launch while Asian stocks dip.
US Housing Data to Watch This Week: Starts and Pending Sales
August housing starts and pending home sales are among the key US real estate figures due this week.
Trump Promises $5,000 to Every US Adult If Republicans Win Midterms
US President Donald Trump pledged a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to each American adult on condition funds are spent domestically, if Republicans retain congressional control in November. The plan would cost an estimated $1.35 trillion across roughly 270 million adults.
Major European Central Banks Prepare for Policy Meetings Amid Diverging Rate Outlooks
European central banks are gearing up for upcoming policy meetings as inflation and interest rate expectations across the region continue to diverge.
Central banks face tricky calls as energy prices complicate inflation outlook
The ECB expects a September rate hike, but Fed policymakers are split on further moves, while the SNB sees room to hold steady.
Fed Turns Hawkish After August CPI Shows Sticky Inflation
Headline inflation held at 3.4% and core CPI remained at 2.4% in August, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a firmer stance and drive repricing across US rates and dollar markets.
Daily Global Financial Calendar: Sept. 10 — ECB Rate Call Tops Busy Data Day
The ECB's interest-rate decision leads a crowded schedule that includes US wholesale trade, factory-gate prices, jobless claims, and major corporate earnings from Adobe and Macy's.
Swiss Economic Calendar: Sep 10–17 Covers Earnings, Inflation Data and Policy Meetings
Switzerland's key economic releases include BFS inflation figures, Repower and Helvetia Baloise half-year results, OECD country report, and UBS banking-law testimony before the Council of States.
SMI und US-Märkte unter Druck: Inflation, Zinsen und Nahost-Konflikt belasten Aktien
Der Schweizer Leitindex SMI und US-Aktienmärkte erleben am Donnerstag weitere Verluste, getrieben durch Sorgen um Inflation, Zinspolitik und geopolitische Spannungen.
Fed Hawkish Policy, Strong Macro Data Spark Global Fixed-Income and FX Repricing
A Federal Reserve policy decision alongside August core CPI of 0.3% month-over-month and retail sales rising 1.2% month-over-month drove global fixed-income and foreign-exchange repricing.
ECB, Fed, SNB Face Divergent Rate Paths as Energy Prices Complicate Outlook
Central banks navigate diverging inflation pressures and growth signals ahead of key September meetings in Frankfurt, Washington, and Bern.
Trump Urges Fed to Cut Rates to Lowest in World Ahead of FOMC Meeting
President Donald Trump escalated pressure on the Federal Reserve, calling for the lowest interest rates globally ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision, amid rising expectations of a 0.25 percentage-point hike.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Approaches 5% on Oil, Rate Hike Fears
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield nears the psychologically significant 5% level as elevated oil prices and growing concerns over potential Federal Reserve rate hikes weigh on markets.
Ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, Trump states that the US should have the world's lowest interest rates.
Former President Donald Trump said the United States should aim for the world's lowest interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting.
Renewed US‑Iran strikes raise Middle East tensions, send equity indices lower and affect oil prices
New US‑Iran strikes have heightened Middle East tensions, contributing to declines in major equity indices and influencing oil prices.
Bank of Canada holds 2.25% rate amid inflation risks, trade uncertainty
The central bank left its key overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% while weighing economic recovery against inflation pressures tied to oil prices and U.S. tariffs.
FedWatch shows 25 bps hike in September still priced in
Market pricing suggests a 25 basis-point rate hike remains a key possibility for September, reflecting evolving inflation expectations.
ECB faces expectations of rate hike amid fresh inflation fears from Iran war
The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates as fresh inflation concerns linked to the Iran war affect the Eurozone.
US Jobless Claims Fall to 196,000, Defying Expectations
Initial unemployment claims dropped by 10,000 to 196,000 last week, well below the 207,000 economists projected, underscoring a resilient U.S. labor market that complicates the Fed's rate trajectory.
Trump Says US Should Have World's Lowest Interest Rate Ahead of Fed Meeting
The president stated his view that the United States should hold the lowest interest rate globally, just before a Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Aquila-CIO Marchesi: Bond Market Biggest Worry Amid Oil, AI and US Debt Pressures
The Aquila chief investment officer says the bond market poses the greatest risk as US refinancing costs surge, while AI capex cycles face scrutiny over circular financing.
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Under Warsh Accompanied by Oil Price Retreat and Wall Street Sentiment Boost
The Federal Reserve's rate decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, coupled with falling oil prices and improved Wall Street sentiment, has lifted a long-standing overhang on financial markets.
Eurozone yields drop as Fed hike eases duration pressures
German Bund yields fell for the first time in six weeks as post-Fed rate action calmed investor concerns over long-duration assets.
Barclays projects BoE rate hikes in November, February amid inflation concerns
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% as MPC votes 6-3 to pause, but Barclays forecasts further hikes in November and February 2027, citing inflation risks from energy prices and geopolitical tensions.
Euro-Area Consumers Raise Inflation Outlook as Growth Stays Pessimistic
The ECB's August consumer survey shows median expected inflation rising across all horizons, while growth expectations remain negative and the labour market outlook edges slightly more positive.
Euro Zone Bond Yields Retreat From Weekly Spikes as Post-Fed Relief Takes Hold
German 10-year bund yields anchored near 3.49% after Tuesday's sell-off, while the Fed, BoE and BOJ delivered rates moves that steadied fixed-income desks across Europe.
ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic cools oil-fueled bets on rate hikes
ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic said remarks that tempered oil‑driven expectations of further rate hikes.
U.S. Jobless Claims Drop, BOE Holds Rates Amid Central Bank Divergence
Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 while the Bank of England kept borrowing costs at 3.75%, contrasting with the Fed's recent 25-basis-point hike that lifted stocks.
Japan raises rates to 31-year high; UK retail sales beat forecasts
The Bank of Japan hiked its target rate to 1.25%, joining a global tightening wave, while British retail sales rose unexpectedly in the summer.
ECB's Vujčić Says Central Banks Remain Cautious on AI's Productivity Impact
ECB Vice-President Boris Vujčić says persistent higher prices could erode purchasing power and food inflation may peak at 3.4% in Q3 2027, while noting uncertain AI productivity outlook.
Japan's Central Bank Raises Key Rate to 31-Year High
The Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, marking the highest level since 1995, in its second hike this year.
European Central Bank widely expected to hike interest rates amid surging oil prices and ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict
The ECB is anticipated to raise rates as oil prices climb and the U.S.-Iran situation persists.
Fed Rate Hike Raises Stakes in Inflation Fight as Markets Price More Moves
The US central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, and traders now expect three additional hikes by mid-next year as inflation remains entrenched above the 2% target.
Lagarde warns Europe faces stark choice between unity and decline
ECB President Christine Lagarde outlined three possible paths for Europe, urging the bloc to deepen integration rather than accept decline or fragment into national agendas.
German Cabinet Approves €10 Billion Income-Tax Reform
Berlin’s tax-cut package targets middle-income families and top earners, with a new 47% rate for incomes above €280,000 taking full effect by 28.
Bank of England holds rate at 3.75% as inflation stays above target
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate unchanged, citing persistent price pressures and a possible rise to 4.00% in November.
US nonfarm payrolls rise 162,000, putting Fed rate decision on upcoming inflation data
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, making the Federal Reserve’s next rate move contingent on forthcoming inflation numbers.
US Treasury Raises Long-Term Bond Buybacks to $6 Billion
The Treasury's purchase ceiling is triple the original $2 billion figure, marking the first step in an expanded buyback program unveiled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Treasury Plans $6 Billion in Debt Repurchases to Battle Rising Yields
The Treasury announced a $6 billion debt repurchase program, after which bond yields rose, indicating investors were underwhelmed by the purchase size.
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate Steady at 3.75%
The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, matching economist expectations and leaving rates level for the rest of the year.
Warren Opens Inquiry Into Fed Data Outage, Staffing Cuts
The Senate Banking ranking member sent letters to Fed officials demanding details on an August outage of the National Information Center and its link to 30% supervision workforce reductions.
BlackRock Corporate High Yield Fund Drops to 52-Week Low
The high-yield corporate bond fund HYT fell to $8.22, reflecting pressure on credit investments as economic uncertainty and interest-rate shifts weigh on yields.
Switzerland Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.7% as Franc Weakness Helps
SECO lifts 2026 growth projection to 1.7% from 0.9%, citing stronger-than-expected Q2 data and a weaker franc boosting exports.
Eurozone Inflation Holds at 3.2% in August, May Climb Further
Eurozone inflation held at 3.2% in August despite an energy-driven spike, but economists warn secondary effects could push it past 4% by late 2027.
Swiss Pension System Score Hits Record High, Funding Fears Remain
Raiffeisen's Vorsorgebarometer reaches 725 points, up 28 from last year, driven by stronger pension fund finances — yet nearly 40% still fear the AHV cannot cover future costs.
Global Economy Is Running Out of Wiggle Room
Many countries softened the harshest impacts of the energy shock from the war in Iran, yet prices stay high and risks are increasing.
Fed Raises Rates; Chairman Warsh Leaves Open How Much More
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin M. Warsh said on Wednesday that the extent of future rate increases to combat inflation remains undecided.
ECB and Fed rate hikes prompt global policymakers to reassess policy trajectories
ECB and Federal Reserve rate increases are leading policymakers worldwide to review their policy paths.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Retreats Below 5% After Fed Rate Hike
The 10-year yield fell past the 5% threshold to 4.96% as markets digested a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase to 3.75%-4%.
U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates, signals further tightening, boosts dollar
The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase and indicated possible additional tightening, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar.
FINMA reports stable supervised institutions despite rising global risks in 2025
Swiss financial regulator says banks and insurers held steady through geopolitical turbulence, but flagged liquidity gaps in 8.2% of bond funds under stress scenarios.
AI reshaping financial markets and supervision
Artificial intelligence is transforming financial operations and supervision, with Switzerland at the forefront of this technological shift.
Bank of England likely to keep rates at 3.75% and trim bond‑selling pace
The BoE is expected to hold its policy rate at 3.75% and reduce quantitative tightening to about £50bn a year, down from £70bn, amid rising inflation and a weakening labour market.
Federal Reserve raises rates and hints at more hikes
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase and indicated the possibility of additional hikes.
Bank of England Expected to Hold Rates Steady Despite Rising Inflation
The BoE is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday even as UK inflation climbs to 3.1%, diverging from the Fed and ECB which both hiked earlier this week.
Putin Faces Economic Stress Test as Russia Holds First Wartime Duma Election
Russia's State Duma vote on Sept. 18–20 tests public patience amid a shrinking economy, tax hikes, and fuel crisis, even as United Russia is expected to retain its supermajority.
U.S. Federal Reserve hiking interest rates again, sparking global tightening cycle concerns
The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates again, prompting concerns about a renewed global tightening cycle.
Market Schedule: ECB Meeting, US Housing Data Lead Sept 17
UK rate decision, eurozone consumer prices, and US building permits anchor a busy data day alongside corporate capital-market events from DHL, Bechtle and Wacker Chemie.
Swiss Economic Calendar: SNB Policy Readings, Corporate Earnings Key This Week
Switzerland's economic and corporate calendar features SNB assessments, major results, and strategy launches across banking, real estate and industrials.
Goldman Sachs forecasts Fed to raise rates in October
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to lift its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in October, reversing an earlier September outlook.
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates, Signals More Tightening Ahead
The US central bank moved rates higher and indicated additional tightening could follow as US prices accelerate.
Federal Reserve releases Beige Book with quarterly US economic snapshots
The Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book eight times annually, summarizing anecdotal economic conditions across all 12 districts via director reports and expert interviews.
Poverty Rate Was Stable Before Trump’s Safety Net Cuts Gained Force
The poverty rate remained stable prior to the expansion of Trump-era safety net reductions, while median household income reached a record $87,460 in 2025.
Morgan Stanley sees ECB 25 bps hike to 2.75% in Dec 2026
Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% in December 2026, sees no hike in October and forecasts a single cut in December 2027 as inflation stays above target.
Bessent Defends Bond Market Intervention Ahead of Congressional Testimony
The Treasury secretary addressed bond market intervention efforts and proposed $5,000 dividends for Americans if Republicans take control in November.
Bessent Defends Faltering Bond Market Intervention
Bessent publicly defended a bond market intervention that appears to be losing momentum.
US Stock Futures Eye Fed Decision as Yields and Oil Prices Rise
US equity futures and markets are focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision amid rising Treasury yields and climbing oil prices.
UK to auction £4.75bn in 4⅝% gilt 2032 next week
UK Debt Management Office to sell £4.75 billion in 4⅝% gilt 2032 on September 22, with settlement on September 23. Nominal amount outstanding to reach £10.0625bn post-auction.
BoE MPC Faces Energy Inflation Risk as September Rate Decision Looms
Market expectations lean toward a hold at 3.75%, but three members signal potential for a 25 bps hike amid Middle East tensions and rising energy costs.
ECB Seeks Merchant Participation in Digital Euro Pilot
A 12-month beta test of a non-legal-tender digital euro currency begins in 2027, with potential issuance planned for 2029.
Fed Watchdog Urges Stricter Controls on Confidential Info Sharing With Regional Bank Directors
The Federal Reserve's inspector general found instances where regional bank board members may have received nonpublic FOMC information during meetings with presidents, prompting calls for tighter safeguards.
Fed watchdog urges tighter controls on information sharing with regional bank boards
The Federal Reserve's inspector general warned that board members at regional reserve banks may have access to confidential FOMC information through informal briefings, calling for stronger safeguards.
Here’s the latest
Further details on the latest inflation-related developments were not immediately available.
Fed Rate-Hike Odds Jump Past 50% After Warsh Jackson Hole Speech
Market pricing shifted sharply after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's keynote, with CME FedWatch showing a nearly 56% chance of a quarter-point increase at the September 16 meeting.
OECD Raises Switzerland Growth Forecast Sharply for 2026
The OECD now expects Swiss GDP to expand 2.0% in 2026, up from a 1.1% June projection, citing strong domestic demand and a resilient chemical and pharma sector.
U.S. Core CPI Rises to 337.77 in August 2026
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge edged up for a second consecutive month, reflecting continued price pressures after excluding volatile food and energy components.
Fed September Rate Decision Approaches Amid Split Market Pricing
Markets show divided expectations as the US Federal Reserve prepares to announce its September 2026 rate decision alongside pending inflation data.
U.S. Private Sector Adds 16,250 Jobs Weekly Through Late August
ADP Research said the four-week average for private hiring rose to 16,250 jobs through Aug. 29, marking a second consecutive weekly gain.
Markets Price Near-Certain Rate Hike Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Meeting
Futures traders see a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point increase as August core CPI eases only slightly and oil surges, testing the Fed's credibility.
US 10-year yield forecast to hit 24-year high of 5.2% by year-end
Standard Bank's Steven Barrow sees the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 5.2% by year-end and 5.3% in Q1 2027, after it rose to 5.01% on Monday.
French industrial output drops unexpectedly in July
Seasonally adjusted production fell 0.4% MoM, contrasting analyst expectations of growth and signaling potential weakness in the second quarter.
Euro bonds pressured as oil tops $100 before ECB decision
European bond yields stayed elevated as Brent crude crossed $100 and U.S. Treasury yields rose, with markets weighing inflation risks ahead of the ECB's rate decision.
China services PMI climbs to 51.4 in August on stronger domestic demand
Private-sector services PMI rose to 51.4 in August, up from 50.4 in July, as firms added staff for a fourth straight month and new business rebounded on stronger domestic demand.
UK Mortgage Rates Expected to Rise as Bond Sell-Off Pushes Swaps to 3-Year High
UK five-year swap rates climbed above 4.52%, their highest since October 2023, as a global bond sell-off driven by oil prices and inflation fears threatens to raise borrowing costs for mortgagors.
Citi Sees BoE Rate Hikes After Rate-Cut Cycle, Revises Inflation Up
Citi Research warns the Bank of England could resume raising rates in November 2026 and February 2027, revising its inflation outlook higher as Middle East tensions push energy prices up.
Morgan Stanley turns hawkish, sees two Fed hikes and an ECB move
Morgan Stanley has shifted to a more hawkish stance, forecasting two upcoming Federal Reserve rate hikes and a move by the European Central Bank.
German Bund Yields Edge Lower as ECB Hike Path Weighs on Sovereign Debt
Traders price in three more ECB rate increases through early 2027 after last week's 25-basis-point hike, pressuring European sovereign debt even as Germany's 10-year Bund eased from multi-decade highs.
Russian frigate fires warning flares at Danish military helicopter off Danish coast
A Russian frigate launched two pyrotechnic warning flares at a Danish NATO helicopter in international waters on Monday; the flares missed and Denmark plans to summon the Russian ambassador.
U.S. Stock Futures Flat as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Clash With AI Slowdown Fears
Wall Street held steady ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting despite a 5% tumble in semiconductors on slowing-AI concerns, while markets price in a 25-basis-point rate hike.
UK unemployment stays at 4.9% as job vacancies hit decade low
The unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months to July, below forecasts, while vacancies fell to 702,000 – the lowest level outside the pandemic for more than ten years.
UK firms shed jobs as wage growth slows to 3.9%
Payrolled employee numbers fell 26,000 in August, while total pay growth eased to a near six-year low. State pension set to rise 3.9% under triple lock.
NEF: Rising Oil and Gas Prices Are Germany's Top Inflation Risk
A Brussels think-tank study finds a 50% rise in oil and gas prices could add 1.8 points to European inflation and recommends separate ECB rates for green investment.
China's retail sales rise only 0.4% in August, industrial output beats expectations
Weak consumer spending and continued investment drag contrast with stronger factory output, keeping pressure on policymakers to meet the full‑year growth target of 4.5‑5.0%.
German self-employed optimism rises fourth straight month
Ifo sentiment index for solo self-employed and micro-enterprises climbed from -22.6 to -19.7 in August, driven by improving expectations despite ongoing challenges.
Macro calendar: ZEW, ADP, Empire State among key data releases Monday
The German ZEW survey, UK jobs data, French consumer prices, and US ADP and Empire State manufacturing reports round out the Monday schedule.
Swiss Economic Calendar: Data Releases, Earnings Due Sept 15-22
Switzerland’s weekly financial calendar features Austrian and Swiss inflation data, SNB balance-of-payments figures, and H1 earnings from Addex, Curatis, Newron and others.
Trump approval rises from record low as Democrats widen lead
A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval at 35% after a record 33% low, while Democrats lead Republicans 44% to 37% ahead of US midterms.
Canada Seeks C$1 Trillion in Foreign Investment as US Tariff Threat Looms
PM Mark Carney hosts an investor summit targeting 160+ projects in mining, energy, tech and infrastructure, aiming to offset 50% US tariff threats with C$1 trillion in five-year inflows.
Democrats send counteroffer to Republicans over Clarity Act provisions
Democratic senators have sent a counteroffer to Republicans on Clarity Act provisions and are meeting to discuss a draft text.
Swiss Economic Calendar: Earnings, Inflation Data and Industry Events, Sept 9–16
Swiss economic output over the week includes H1 earnings from Bioversys, Medacta, Mobiliar and others, plus BAFU inflation data and an SNB government-bond result.
US bans Canadian motorcycles, dairy and alcohol amid escalating trade war
The White House confirmed new import restrictions on Canadian beer, wine and whisky take effect Sept 29, as Trump threatens further tariff hikes and orders Canadian goods removed from federal procurement.
China inflation accelerates to 0.8% in August, above expectations
Chinese consumer prices rose 0.8% year-on-year in August, meeting forecasts, while monthly growth of 0.4% beat analyst expectations of 0.3%.
Federal Reserve expected to raise rates under Chairman Kevin Warsh as oil tops $100 a barrel
Market observers note expectations of a Fed rate increase under Chairman Kevin Warsh amid persistent inflation and oil prices above $100 a barrel.
US Treasury par yield curve rates updated for January and February 2026
The Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve rates for 2026 show 10-year yields from 4.15% to 4.30% and 30-year yields from 4.79% to 4.91% across January and February.
Fed set for two‑day policy rate decision as markets anticipate hike after inflation data and Warsh speech
The Federal Reserve will hold a two‑day policy rate meeting, with markets expecting a rate increase following hot inflation reports and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Lithuania closes Vilnius airport and NATO summons jets in response to a possible drone incident
Lithuania shut Vilnius airport and NATO called in jets after a possible drone incident.
Irish services sector expands at fastest pace since November
AIB/S&P Global data showed Ireland's services output rose to 55.4 in August, the strongest gain since November 2025, with demand, backlogs and sentiment improving.
US Housing Market Data Releases Set for Thursday Morning
August housing starts and pending home sales figures will be published Thursday, according to scheduled economic calendar listings.
BCA Warns of 2028 Policy Shifts if Trump’s Tariffs Resume
Trump’s potential revival of reciprocal tariffs through 2027 raises concerns about retaliatory global trade actions and a possible shift toward Democratic-leaning economic policies by 2028.
UBS: Central Banks Should Focus on Market Inflation Expectations
Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues that central banks should prioritize financial market inflation expectations over consumer and corporate surveys when setting policy.
Bessent Faces Pressure as Treasury Yields Approach 5%
Yields surged nearly 19 basis points this week, pressing Secretary Bessent to deploy larger bond buybacks as the Fed prepares for a quarter-point rate hike.
U.S. inflation data remains pivotal for upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions after surprise hiring jump
U.S. inflation data is viewed as pivotal for upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions after a surprise jump in hiring.
Trump criticizes Ukrainian attacks on Russian diesel infrastructure, says they hurt global economy
Former President Donald Trump said Ukrainian strikes on Russian diesel facilities are damaging the global economy.
Discussion Raised Over Ireland's Impact on Eurozone GDP Accuracy
Analysts are debating whether Ireland's economic output distorts headline Eurozone GDP figures, raising questions about the reliability of regional macro data.
Fed Rate-Hike Odds Rise to 59% Ahead of August CPI
August CPI data due Friday could decide whether the Fed hikes on Sept. 16, after strong jobs data lifted 25bp move odds to 59% from about 50%.
Fed rate decision focus on inflation after employment reports
The Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision is expected to be guided by inflation data following recent employment reports.
Fed Survey: Inflation Expectations Ease, Unemployment Woes Deepen
The New York Fed's August consumer survey shows three-year inflation expectations slipping to 3.2%, while the probability of rising unemployment hit a post-April 2020 high of 44.4%, signaling deteriorating labor-market sentiment.
US Treasury Yields Dip Before Key Inflation Data and FOMC Meeting
US Treasury yields fell slightly as investors position ahead of August consumer inflation data releases and an upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Trump Says U.S. Should Have World's Lowest Interest Rate Ahead of Fed Meeting
The U.S. president made the comments days before the Federal Reserve convenes its latest policy meeting.
HSBC says risk assets shrug off negative catalysts as market strength remains 'breathtaking'
HSBC strategist Max Kettner attributes continued equity and bond rally to earnings resilience, wealth effects and ample central‑bank support, while warning that U.S. risks could end the run.
US-Canada trade war escalates as US stocks and futures slide alongside rising oil
Escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada coincide with declining US stock futures and higher oil prices.
Swiss parliament criticises F-35 procurement overrun, cites government failure
The National Council’s oversight commission said no fixed price was agreed with the United States and criticised the defence ministry’s negotiation process, after a CHF 400 million cost overrun forced a reduction in jet numbers.
Ukrainian central bank sees inflation near 10% in 2026 on Russian attacks
The Ukrainian central bank expects attacks and the Black Sea blockade to add 0.4-0.6 percentage points to this year's inflation and leave it around 10% by end-2026.
UK pays record 5.82% on 30-year bond
Britain sold £4.25bn of 30-year bonds at 5.8168%, the highest comparable yield since 1998, as inflation and oil-price concerns raised long-term borrowing costs.
Canada Explores Closer EU Ties Amid Worsening US Relations
Canadian PM Mark Carney is examining an associated EU partnership, seeking deeper cooperation in energy, AI, defence and critical minerals as a counterweight to escalating trade tensions with Washington.
White House pressures Fed on rate decisions amid Wall Street hike expectations
The White House is applying pressure on the Federal Reserve as Wall Street prices in expectations for interest rate hikes.
Fed rate hike is about Wall Street, not inflation, says economist
An economist says the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate increase is motivated by Wall Street concerns rather than inflation.
Citi expects BOJ rate hike to 1.25%; political votes and Fed key to yen
Citi Research expects the BOJ to lift its policy rate to 1.25%, while USD/JPY near 154.52 and the Fed's next decision could determine near-term yen direction.
Citi Sees BOJ Raising Policy Rate to 1.25%, Cites Political Alignments and Fed Path
Citi Research projects the Bank of Japan will lift its key rate to 1.25%, with the Federal Reserve’s stance and appointments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi shaping the path forward.
U.S. Bond Yields Approach 5% Milestone as Debt Tops $40 Trillion
The 10-year Treasury yield nears 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, while U.S. government debt surpasses $40 trillion and real rates climb to fresh highs.
Marktvolatilität vorerst gebremst, aber Risiken für September und Oktober steigen
Finanzmärkte zeigen nach ruhigem August Anzeichen von Spannungen durch Zinsentscheidungen, US-Wahlen und geopolitische Faktoren.
Surging Inflation Tests US, UK and Japan Central Banks as Rate Decisions Loom
Resurgent energy costs and persistent price pressures converge as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare policy moves this week.
Swiss favor capital-and-annuity blend for retirement, study finds
A sixth survey by Lucerne University shows half of respondents prefer mixing lump-sum payouts and annuities, while only 60% income replacement falls short of what most deem adequate.
Euro yields rise as crude nears $100 and ECB hike looms
European bond yields climbed as Brent crude approached $98 and an ECB rate hike loomed, while U.S. Treasuries firmed ahead of Fed and CPI data.
Thousands rally in Berlin against Germany's far right
Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Berlin to protest against Germany's far right, according to a Reuters video report.
Bank of Canada holds key rate at 2.25% as tariffs and oil prices cloud outlook
The central bank kept its overnight rate at 2.25% and warned that new U.S. tariffs and volatile oil prices increase inflation risks despite a strong Q2 rebound.
Citi Flags Five Market Worries Investors Should Watch
Citi strategists maintain a long-risk stance while outlining five key threats: a hawkish Fed, rising bond yields, Japan carry unwind, oil disruption, and European gas pricing.
China's August Exports Jump 25%, Trade Surplus Hits $119.1 Billion
China's trade surplus swelled as exports rose 25% year-on-year, driven by auto and AI shipments, while imports grew 28.2% — slightly behind forecasts.
UK Budget Faces Oil Shock, Gilt Sell-Off and Trump Policy Headwinds
Healey’s October budget may be constrained by higher borrowing costs, an oil-price spike and fiscal headroom that could shrink if the OBR uses current market conditions.
Kanada setzt Gegenzölle auf US-Stahl, Aluminium und andere Importe ab 8. September
Kanada führt ab Dienstag Gegenzölle im Wert von bis zu 27,6 Mrd. USD auf US-Importe ein, nachdem die USA zuvor 20 Mrd. USD kanadischer Waren mit Strafzöllen belegt hatten.
Economic Calendar: Germany, France, U.S. Trade Data on Sept. 8
Germany and France release July trade balance figures, while the U.S. reports consumer credit and China posts its August trade surplus data.
Swiss Economic Calendar: Key Events Sep 8-15
Federal bond results, BFS inflation and hotel data, Repower and Sandoz updates top a Swiss week packed with earnings and policy releases.
SMI Lower Before Trading, Asian Markets Mixed on Yen Strength
Switzerland's SMI futures point lower after Monday's decline, while Asian equities show mixed results as speculation builds around further Bank of Japan rate hikes.
AI Boom Creates Next Bottleneck: Energy Demand Surges
New AI data centers require gigawatts of power, sparking a global race for electricity supplies and pushing energy stocks into focus.
Robust US payrolls data reinforces rate‑hike expectations, prompting gold to ease while markets await inflation prints
Strong US jobs numbers have bolstered expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing gold lower as investors await upcoming inflation data.
Robust US payrolls data reinforces expectations for higher rates, impacting gold ahead of inflation data
Strong US payrolls data has heightened expectations for higher interest rates, influencing gold as the market awaits upcoming US inflation figures.
Indian rupee and bond markets navigate RBI dollar-selling intervention and liquidity actions
The Indian rupee and bond markets are responding to the Reserve Bank of India's dollar-selling intervention and associated liquidity measures.
US stocks fall after hot jobs report
US equities declined after a stronger‑than‑expected employment report raised expectations for Federal Reserve rate moves.
Eurostat: Eurozone Q2 GDP rises 0.6%, employment up 0.1%
Eurostat's second estimate shows euro-area growth accelerating from a flat first quarter, with exports and household spending offsetting inventory declines.
ECB Widely Expected to Raise Interest Rates Ahead of Thursday Decision
Markets broadly anticipate the European Central Bank will implement another interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting.
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank Offer Credit Baskets on French Election Outcome
Banks are marketing AT1 bond baskets and total-return swaps tied to France's April presidential vote, as political risk and a budget deficit above 5% weigh on French credit spreads.
Markets prepare for US inflation data after mixed Asian session, tech rally
Global markets are looking ahead to upcoming US inflation figures, following a day of varied performance in Asian equities and strength in technology shares.
BLS revises NY employment up, Buffalo job growth weaker
Preliminary BLS employment data indicates an upward revision to New York statewide employment, while Buffalo job growth appears weaker than earlier estimates.
US manufacturing employment rises to 12,638 in August 2026
FRED data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show seasonally adjusted manufacturing payrolls increased from 12,622 in July to 12,638 in August 2026.
UBS forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 following a strong jobs report
UBS forecasts two US Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 after a strong jobs report.
UBS expects Fed to lift rates twice by end-2026
UBS analysts expect quarter-point Fed hikes in September and December 2026, but say the forecast is not high conviction and depends on CPI and labor data.
SNB Foreign-Currency Reserves Rise to CHF 770.1 Billion in August as Growth Slows
The Swiss National Bank reported that its foreign-currency reserves increased to CHF 770.1 billion in August, up CHF 1.9 billion from July, marking the third straight monthly gain but showing a slowdown after a larger summer surge. Gold holdings also rose sharply, while official reserve assets excluding gold edged higher.
European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hike interest rates on Thursday
The European Central Bank plans to raise interest rates on Thursday, according to the latest information.
ECB Highlights Diversity Progress Since 2010
Dublin-based ECB outlines gender and broader inclusion milestones, research on promotion gaps, and institutional frameworks to align with Lagarde’s 2020 mandate.
Fed's Warsh says inflation is top focus, lifting September hike odds
Warsh told Jackson Hole that prices remain too high and the Fed may need to tighten if underlying inflation does not clearly move toward 2%.
Bank of England Governor Warns AI Could Trigger Global Financial Downturn
Andrew Bailey told G20 finance ministers that frontier AI poses cyber-risk and amplifies leverage concerns, urging international safeguards on model deployment.
Bond Sell-Off Deepens as US-Iran Tensions Fuel Inflation Fears
UK 10-year gilt yields surge to their highest since mid-2008 as renewed Middle East fighting pushes oil toward $95 and raises the cost of sovereign borrowing worldwide.
Lagarde defends ECB rate hike as euro area inflation hits 3.3%
The ECB president said the rate increase is needed to contain inflation, which is 3.3% in the euro area, citing a longer-lasting energy shock and warning about AI valuations.
ECB raises key rates by 25 basis points as inflation risks remain elevated
The ECB lifted its three key rates by 25 basis points, citing Middle East conflict-driven energy inflation. Staff projections keep inflation above target until 2027 while growth is revised up.
US August jobs beat forecasts, unemployment steady at 4.1%; oil explorer stocks slide on Argentina sanctions threat
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far above the 56,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Shares of Falklands oil firms fell after Argentina warned of sanctions.
US Jobs Report Preview: Potential Impact on Fed Rate Decision
Investing.com analysts expect the August NFP to show 55K jobs, 0.3% earnings growth and 4.1% unemployment, with leading indicators pointing to 75‑125K jobs, influencing a roughly 60% chance of a Fed hike.
European bond yields rise as ECB hike odds climb, oil prices surge
Bund yields near 3.36% as markets price a 25‑basis‑point ECB hike; Eurozone inflation hits 3.3% and oil benchmarks break $90 a barrel.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumps to 4.823% after strong payrolls
The 10‑year yield rose from 4.746% to 4.823% following an August nonfarm payrolls report that added 162,000 jobs, reviving expectations of a September Fed rate hike.
European bond yields rise, ending two‑day rally ahead of ECB meeting
German 10‑year Bund yields nudged up to around 3.36% as markets priced in a 25‑bp ECB rate hike, while euro‑zone inflation hit 3.3% in August and oil prices stayed above $90 a barrel.
Proposed SEC Rules Would Limit Company Disclosures to Investors
New SEC proposals could reduce audit and disclosure requirements, lowering costs but raising concerns about hidden fraud or financial stress.
Scott Bessent Accuses China of Flooding World with Cheap Exports at G20
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China is flooding the world with cheap exports during a G20 meeting.
Dutch Central Bank Cuts Gold Reserves in U.S. Amid Geopolitical Unrest
The Netherlands moved some 90 tons of gold from the New York Federal Reserve, citing geopolitical unrest, becoming the second European nation this year to reduce U.S. gold holdings.
Jobs report may affect shaky bond market
A forthcoming jobs report could influence the currently unstable bond market.
Job market outlook for 2035 shows rise in nurses, decline in secretaries
A projection suggests the 2035 employment landscape will feature increased demand for nurses and reduced demand for secretaries.
Robust Hiring Reinforces Strength of the U.S. Economy
Employers added 162,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.1% last month, suggesting stability despite high inflation.
Trump Threatens to Halt Trade With Deficit Nations Unless Fed Cuts Rates
President Donald Trump said he could stop trade with countries where the U.S. runs a deficit if the central bank does not lower rates.
What to know about the report
A new inflation report has been released, though details are currently limited.
China’s new graduates face a dire job market and AI challenges
A record 12.7 million recent graduates in China are seeking employment as AI adoption reshapes the labor market.
US 30‑Year Mortgage Rate Hits 14‑Month High, Dampening Housing Demand
The average rate on a 30‑year fixed mortgage rose to 6.71% from 6.66% last week, the highest level since July 2025, while pending home sales slipped 0.2% in August, the first YoY decline since November 2025.
Swiss unemployment stable as short‑time work declines
Unemployment held at 3.0% in August while youth joblessness rose seasonally; short‑time work fell 16% from April to May, signaling a resilient labour market.
Trump pushes Fed for rate cut, Turkey warns of risks
Analysis links President Trump's demand for lower Federal Reserve rates to Turkey's costly rate‑cut episode, highlighting potential credibility risks for U.S. monetary policy.
Eurozone Q2 GDP revised to 0.6% QoQ, outpacing US 0.4% growth
Eurostat lifted the euro area’s second‑quarter GDP growth to 0.6% from 0.4%, driven by a 10.2% surge in Ireland, while the United States posted 0.4% growth. Spain, Germany and Italy also posted modest gains.
Dutch central bank shifts 86 tonnes of gold to London to boost liquidity
The Netherlands moved about 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to the Bank of England, raising its London holdings to 32% of total reserves while keeping overall reserves at 612.4 tonnes.
Key data and earnings to watch this week: US CPI, ECB rate hike, Oracle and Adobe results
US consumer price index is forecast at 3.4% YoY, the ECB is expected to lift rates by a quarter point, while Oracle and Adobe are set to report earnings and strategic financing plans.
Sentix eurozone confidence index rises to +5.1 in September, highest since Feb 2022
Sentix's September survey showed the eurozone business climate index jumped 4.2 points to +5.1, marking a fifth straight monthly gain and beating forecasts for a modest rise.
Germany to Deploy Anti‑Sabotage Shield After Failed Drone Attack
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced a package of police, cyber and AI measures to protect airports, transport hubs and critical infrastructure from drone and sabotage threats.
Citi's 'Warsh Shadow Rate' gauges Fed hike risk ahead of September meeting
Citi research has built a 'Warsh Shadow Rate' using indicators from former Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks. The metric, near historic highs, signals a potential September rate hike and could pressure Treasury yields.
Europe's sovereign yields diverge as France and Germany face higher deficits
Ten‑year bond yields in France and Germany are nearing 2007 highs, while Spain and Italy remain below 2023 peaks, reflecting differing fiscal outlooks across the euro area.
Warsh shadow rate gauges Fed stance, Citi says
Citi Research's Warsh shadow rate, built from Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, tracks core inflation, money supply and jobless claims to anticipate 2‑year Treasury yields and Fed moves.
Iran security chief denies alleged plot to assassinate Barron Trump
Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei rejected claims of a plan to kill President Donald Trump's youngest son, while also outlining Tehran's conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz.
Moody's downgrades Senegal to Caa2 as default risk rises
Moody's cuts Senegal's long‑term foreign and local currency ratings to Caa2, keeps a negative outlook and lowers country ceilings amid rising financing needs and fiscal strain.
JPMorgan projects ECB third rate hike to 2.75% in December
JPMorgan forecasts a third ECB rate increase in December to 2.75%, a near‑certain second hike to 2.5% next week, and a policy pause through 2027, with cuts unlikely before 2028.
UK Debt Management Office to auction £5bn of 4⅝% Treasury Gilt 2030 on Sep 10
The UK DMO will sell £5bn of 4⅝% Treasury Gilt 2030 in a one‑hour auction on Sep 10, with settlement on Sep 11 and a post‑auction option for up to 25% additional allocation.
Bank of England’s Pill warns higher rates may be needed to curb inflation
Chief Economist Huw Pill signals a prompt rate hike could pre-empt persistent inflation risks, as markets price a 15% chance of a move this month and over 70% by November.
Canada 10-year yield falls as global bonds rebound
Canadian government bond yields eased after a broad recovery in global debt markets, with the 10-year yield slipping below 3.8% amid shifting rate expectations.
ECB's Schnabel in talks to take IMF role, may leave early
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel is negotiating to head the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, potentially departing before her term ends. A departure would trigger a reshuffle of the ECB's leadership.
ECB seen raising rates once more in September before pausing: poll
Economists in a Reuters survey expect the European Central Bank to hike its deposit rate to 2.50% next week, marking its second increase in a brief tightening cycle. No further moves are anticipated through mid-2025.
Sweden's Riksbank flags uncertain inflation risks despite growth pickup
Sweden’s central bank governor says inflation pressures remain unclear even as GDP data points to a stabilizing recovery. The Riksbank will assess incoming data to guide policy decisions.
Putin says Russia’s budget deficit remains manageable despite 40% rise
Russian president cites low debt levels as justification for deficit expansion to 2.8% of GDP in January-July, despite war-related spending pressures.
HSBC lifts U.S. Treasury yield forecasts on shifting Fed expectations
Bank raises two-year and ten-year yield projections for 2026 and 2027, citing rising odds of a September rate hike and persistent fiscal deficits.
U.S. labor data, yen surge and oil steadiness in focus
Markets await Friday's jobs report as yen strengthens on intervention bets and oil prices stabilize after natural gas surges. Broadcom shares slip on cautious outlook despite earnings beat.
U.S. 30-year mortgage rate hits highest since July 2025 at 6.71%
Average rate rises 5 basis points week-on-week as energy-driven inflation pressures persist. Freddie Mac data shows mortgage costs climbing amid broader economic uncertainty.
U.S. trade deficit widens 24.4% in July to $88.6 bln
Goods trade deficit climbs 17.3% as imports surge to record $140.3 bln in capital goods. Oil and industrial supplies weigh on exports.
U.S. trade deficit widens to $88.6 billion in July as capital goods imports surge
The U.S. trade gap expanded by 24.4% last month, driven by a record $140.3 billion in capital goods imports. The deficit subtracted 1.14 percentage points from Q2 GDP growth.
U.S. services sector growth accelerates as ISM non-manufacturing PMI beats forecasts
ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 in August, exceeding expectations and signaling expansion in the U.S. services sector for the 12th straight month.
U.S. services sector activity rises to 55.4 in August as demand strengthens
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI climbs to highest since February 2023, led by new orders surge; Fed rate hike odds rise ahead of September meeting.
Fed's Waller signals September rate pause if inflation cools further
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could hold rates steady in September if disinflation continues, while market odds of a hike have swung. Treasury yields and inflation expectations adjust.
Fed's Waller signals openness to holding rates steady if inflation cools
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping interest rates unchanged at the September meeting if inflation data continues to trend toward the 2% target. Traders now price a roughly 50% chance of a hike.
White House urges Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, Vance says
Vice President JD Vance states administration seeks lower borrowing costs, citing supportive inflation data. Comments come as markets assess Fed policy outlook.
Brazil services activity rebounds in August as PMI rises above 50
Brazil's services sector returned to growth in August, with the PMI climbing to 50.5 from 49.7 in July, offsetting continued weakness in manufacturing. Employment remained flat after prior declines.
Fed’s Waller signals September rate pause if disinflation continues
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a September rate hike remains possible but is not guaranteed, as policymakers await fresh inflation data. Treasury yields and equities reacted to his remarks.
Canada's trade surplus shrinks to C$769 mln in July as exports drop
Exports fell 2.3% in the first decline since January, while imports rose 2.2%, pushing the surplus to its lowest level in five months. Energy and metals led the decline.
Senegal transfers funds for 2048 bond coupon amid IMF deal
Government initiates payment for century-long dollar bond as IMF approves $2.2 billion loan package. Bond prices rise on announcement.
U.S. services PMI slips to 56.5, misses forecast as growth slows
The ISM services index fell short of expectations in September, with the PMI declining to 56.5 from 54.6 a month earlier. A reading above 50 still signals expansion.
Poland’s central bank seen holding rates through 2026
Monetary Policy Council member signals benchmark rate of 3.75% will remain unchanged at least through year-end, with no cuts expected in 2025. Inflation rose to 3.4% in August.
Magnitude 5 earthquake strikes Tibet: GFZ
A 5.0-magnitude quake hit the Tibetan plateau Thursday, the German Research Centre for Geosciences reported. No immediate damage or casualties were cited.
HSBC raises U.S. Treasury yield forecasts on hawkish Fed shift
Bank lifts 2-year and 10-year yield projections for 2026-27, citing rising odds of a September rate hike and risks to the Fed’s dual mandate. Curve seen steepening amid fiscal deficits.
Canada’s services PMI falls to six-month low amid trade tensions
The decline in Canada’s services PMI reflects growing trade-related pressures, though further details were not immediately available.
Swiss inflation hits two-year high, SNB rate hike odds rise
August CPI surge to 0.8% exceeds forecasts, lifting expectations for a potential Swiss National Bank rate increase by late 2027. Energy prices drive the jump while core inflation remains subdued.
ECB’s Schnabel seen leaving early for IMF role, report says
Executive board member Isabel Schnabel may step down before her 2027 term ends to join the IMF. Bundesbank’s Nagel would be Germany’s sole candidate to replace Lagarde.
ECB's Schnabel may leave early for IMF role, Handelsblatt reports
Isabel Schnabel, ECB executive board member, is in talks to head the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, potentially leaving her post before her 2027 mandate ends. A reshuffle at the ECB board could follow.
Malaysia holds benchmark rate at 2.75% as growth remains strong
Central bank cites resilient economy and stable inflation as reasons for maintaining policy rate unchanged. Survey of 31 economists showed broad consensus on decision.
Eurozone business activity growth slows in August as services PMI falls
Eurozone composite PMI held near long-term average at 52.0 in August, while services activity slipped to a two-month low of 51.6. Export orders rose for the first time in 4.5 years, led by manufacturing demand.
India’s GDP growth of 7.8% sparks skepticism over methodology
Analysts question the robustness of India’s latest quarterly growth figure amid concerns over data revisions and deflator assumptions. High-frequency indicators show mixed signals.
UK services growth accelerates in August as cost pressures rise
S&P Global PMI shows services activity at its strongest since April, but firms report intensifying price pressures amid Middle East energy risks. Composite index also climbs to five-month high.
Global bond rout pauses as European, Aussie yields retreat from peaks
German and Australian 10-year yields fall from multi-year highs after a week of aggressive selling, while U.S. labor data tempers rate-hike bets ahead of ECB meeting.
Global bond sell-off pauses as European, Australian yields retreat
European and Australian government bond yields fell on Thursday, halting a global sell-off amid mixed U.S. labor data and ahead of key economic reports.
Germany's services sector contracts in August as costs weigh
S&P Global PMI shows slight decline to 49.7, while composite measure rises to 51.8 amid mixed signals in demand and hiring. Cost pressures remain a key constraint.
Italy's services PMI hits 3.5-year high, composite growth accelerates
Italy's services sector expanded at the fastest pace since April 2023 in August, with the composite PMI rising to its second-highest level in over three years, driven by domestic demand and new business growth.
France services activity contracts faster in August amid weak demand
The latest data indicates a sharper decline in French services sector activity during August.
Germany's services PMI edges up as sector nears stabilization
Services activity contracted marginally in August, but new business and employment showed improvement, while composite output rose to a five-month high. Input price pressures accelerated.
Swiss inflation accelerates to 0.8% in August on energy price gains
August CPI rose from 0.4% in July, driven by higher energy and rental costs, reversing months of cooling price growth.
Eurozone business activity steady in August as services slow
Eurozone composite PMI held at 52.0 in August, matching July’s eight-month high, while services activity slipped to a two-month low. Germany led regional growth, France remained in contraction.
European and Aussie bond yields retreat from multi-year highs
Germany and France saw two- and 10-year yields ease after seven-session climb; Australia’s 10-year yield slips from 15-year peak. U.S. private payrolls miss forecasts.
Swiss inflation rises to 0.8% in August on energy cost surge
Consumer prices increased from 0.4% in July, driven by higher gasoline, diesel and heating oil costs amid Middle East tensions. Residential rents also climbed.
Italy's services sector posts fastest growth in 3.5 years in August
S&P Global Italy Services PMI rose to 55.2 in August, the highest since April 2023, as domestic demand surged while export growth remained modest. Input costs accelerated amid energy and commodity price pressures.
French services sector contracts for second month in August as PMI falls to 48.0
French service-sector activity shrank at an accelerated pace in August, with the PMI declining to 48.0 from 49.6 in July. New orders and employment also declined, while input costs rose sharply.
Germany's services sector edges closer to growth in August
Germany's services PMI rose to 49.7 in August, while composite output PMI climbed to a five-month high of 51.8, signaling tentative recovery amid rising costs and export gains.
Swiss Q2 GDP growth fastest in nearly five years at 1.5%
Swiss economic expansion accelerated to 1.5% in Q2 2026, driven by a surge in pharmaceutical exports, while services saw broad-based but modest gains. Inflation pressures and geopolitical risks remain key concerns.
ECB’s Vujčić highlights role of household expectations in monetary policy
Vice-President cites ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey as critical tool for tracking inflation perceptions, spending plans and policy transmission amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes Papua New Guinea, GFZ reports
Shallow quake hits eastern Papua New Guinea, according to German Research Centre for Geosciences. No immediate tsunami warning issued.
JPMorgan strategist links bond yield rise to AI-driven productivity gains
AI investment surge boosts corporate borrowing and long-term yields, JPMorgan's U.S. head of investment strategy says. Semiconductor sector correction masks underlying growth potential.
Boston Fed's Collins flags 'mixed' U.S. inflation readings at Jackson Hole
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins says July PCE data shows uneven price pressures, with some signs of easing but lingering risks. Fed policy remains data-dependent as officials assess disinflation progress.
Boston Fed's Collins flags mixed inflation, keeps rate hike option open
U.S. inflation data showed divergent trends in July, with headline PCE rising 3.7% while core pressures eased toward the Fed's 2% target. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said policy remains data-dependent amid rising Treasury yields.
Brazil central government posts R$10.78 bln primary surplus in July
Surplus exceeds July 2025 deficit and matches median Reuters poll forecast; central government accounts include Treasury, Central Bank and Social Security.
Michigan sentiment, Jackson Hole to headline Friday's data docket
Consumer confidence and the annual Fed symposium in Wyoming headline a busy Friday for U.S. economic data and policy signals.
Fed’s Hammack sees inflation easing slowly, rate hike still likely
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack forecasts U.S. inflation at around 3% by year-end, with limited progress toward the 2% target in 2025. She signals a rate hike remains on the table to address price pressures.
Brazil DI rates pare after jobs data but curve rises on hawkish Fed tone
Short-term Brazilian interbank deposit rates slipped after July job creation undershot forecasts, but the curve steepened as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a hawkish stance at Jackson Hole.
ECB faces dilemma as rate hike risks fueling market turmoil
A 25-basis-point hike expected next week tests the ECB's balancing act between persistent inflation and financial stability amid rising bond yields and debt concerns.
AI-driven borrowing fuels bond market optimism, JPMorgan says
Rising long-term yields may reflect expectations of AI productivity gains rather than inflation concerns, as AI-related debt issuance surges to $220 billion. JPMorgan Private Bank favors shorter-duration credit amid hawkish rate pricing.
Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech to scrutinize Trump-era inflation legacy
Former Fed chief Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole remarks may reframe the debate over U.S. inflation under President Donald Trump, as markets weigh policy credibility and election-year pressures.
Fed’s Hammack sees inflation at 3% by end-2026, gradual decline in 2027
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack projects U.S. inflation will ease to around 3% by year-end 2026, with limited further progress toward the 2% target in 2027.
Fed’s Warsh signals resolve on inflation but leaves rate path unclear
Investors welcomed clearer inflation guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, though uncertainty persists over whether the central bank will raise rates in September. Treasury yields and rate-hike odds rose after his Jackson Hole remarks.
ECB’s Kocher says euro zone economy showing signs of momentum
Austrian central bank chief cites resilience in growth despite inflation pressures and geopolitical drags. ECB policy path remains data-dependent amid Jackson Hole remarks.
Warsh signals subtle shift in Fed guidance at Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh outlines a more measured approach to policy communication while emphasizing inflation progress. Markets parse signals ahead of September decision.
HSBC sees 5% Treasury yield as key threshold for equities
HSBC warns sustained rise in 10-year Treasury yield above 5% could pressure stock valuations, though current levels remain below that level. Financials, energy and industrials favored if rates stay elevated.
U.S. debt tops $40 trillion under Trump amid rising borrowing costs
National debt surpasses $40 trillion in Trump's second term as tax cuts and spending outpace revenue growth, with yields on U.S. bonds near two-decade highs.
Bank of Canada poised to hold rates as growth, trade risks collide
Strong second-quarter expansion and 3% inflation pressure the central bank to maintain its 2.25% policy rate, despite escalating U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures.
Brazil's central bank weighs measures to curb rising household debt
Authorities examine limits on credit card and unsecured loan exposure before imposing a debt-to-income ceiling amid record household debt-service commitments.
Swiss couples face trade-offs in delaying state pension claims
Delaying Swiss AHV pension claims can boost payouts by up to 31.5%, but married couples face unique constraints due to the 150% cap on combined benefits.
Swiss Federal Council appoints Christoph Ammann as SNB Bank Council President
Ammann will succeed Barbara Janom Steiner in May 2027; Marc Mächler named Vice President. Appointments follow statutory term limits.
Citrini Research forecasts bond rally as U.S. shifts debt strategy
Firm sees 30-year Treasuries outperforming amid coordinated Treasury-Fed policy to reduce long-dated supply. Recommendation targets narrowing yield gap by November.
ECB's Kocher says European economy gaining momentum
European Central Bank council member Martin Kocher flags resilience and improving growth in the euro area, while warning inflation remains a concern ahead of September policy decisions.
Brazil weighs lending curbs as household debt ratio hits record 26.6%
Central bank considers lender-side restrictions to curb rising consumer leverage after household debt service-to-income ratio climbs to highest level in June. IMF urges stricter rules.
German economy seen on cusp of growth rebound through 2028
DIW and Bundesbank raise 2026 GDP forecasts to 1.2% and 1.0% respectively, citing stronger exports and reduced energy shock impact. Fragile recovery hinges on public spending as private investment lags.
China regrets G20 finance meeting failed to issue joint statement
Spokesperson cites divergent views on key issues as reason for absence of consensus during Wednesday's G20 finance leaders' meeting.
Fed’s Williams: Rising yields reflect strong economy, not inflation pressure
New York Fed chief attributes higher bond yields to robust growth and AI investment rather than price pressures, as tariffs and geopolitics keep inflation elevated.
Swiss banks face CHF 12-24 bln mortgage funding gap under Basel III
New Basel III rules could leave a CHF 12-24 billion annual financing shortfall for Swiss real estate and development projects, while owner-occupied housing benefits from lower capital requirements.
ECB policymaker signals readiness for further rate hikes if inflation rises
ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf warns the central bank must remain prepared to tighten policy further amid inflation risks. Upcoming decision next week seen as data-dependent.
Fed’s Williams says U.S. bond yield rise reflects strong economy
New York Fed chief cites AI and data center investment as drivers of higher long-term Treasury yields, dismisses inflation concerns. Labor market remains stable, he adds.
BofA trims UK 2027 growth forecast on energy price surge
Brokerage lowers 2027 GDP outlook to 1.2% as higher oil and gas costs weigh on outlook; inflation forecasts raised across 2026-27.
U.S. private payrolls rise 38,000 in September, missing forecasts
ADP report shows smallest gain in six months as hiring slows below expectations of 47,000. Economists eye government payroll data for broader labor market trends.
US private payrolls rise 38,000 in August, ADP report shows
Private employment growth slowed last month, missing economists' forecasts as the labor market shows signs of cooling. The report precedes Friday's official jobs data from the BLS.
China denies deliberate pursuit of trade surplus
The country’s central bank governor stated that China does not aim to maintain a trade surplus.
Brazil central bank to tighten household credit risk rules
Measures target high-cost loans as household debt risks rise; central bank cites need for sustainable credit provision and capital accumulation.
Fed’s Hammack expects inflation near 3% by year-end, mid-2s in 2027
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack projects inflation will remain above target through 2026 before easing toward the mid-2% range in 2027. She reiterates the case for further rate hikes to curb price pressures.
Fed officials warn inflation remains sticky ahead of Jackson Hole meeting
Kansas City and Chicago Fed presidents flag persistent price pressures as the annual symposium convenes in Wyoming. Upcoming policy decision looms amid five-year stretch above target.
Fed officials Hammack, Schmid call for higher rates amid inflation concerns
Cleveland Fed's Hammack and Kansas City Fed's Schmid urge rate hikes, citing persistent inflation and lack of policy restraint. Second Fed call for hikes in a single day.
BofA cuts UK 2027 growth forecast on energy shock
Bank of America reduces UK growth outlook for 2027 to 1.2% due to higher energy prices and pre-Budget uncertainty, while lifting 2026 estimate to 1.2%.
ECB’s hawkish stance lifts real rates, UBS says, as bond yields rise
UBS argues the ECB’s shift toward tighter policy since March is driving real rate expectations higher, with limited impact on euro-area term premia. The bank sees scope for further tightening into 2027.
JPMorgan sets 30K-70K jobs range as ideal for Fed meeting
Bank says nonfarm payrolls in the 30,000 to 70,000 range would align with a 'goldilocks' scenario ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 16 policy meeting.
Tesla’s China-made EV sales extend growth streak
Sales of China-made Tesla electric vehicles continue to rise, though the pace of growth has slowed.
Liz Truss warns UK bond rout may force spending cuts
Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss cautions that a bond market selloff could lead to emergency fiscal adjustments.
ECB September rate hike odds rise after July minutes, ING says
ING cites stronger-than-expected eurozone data and July meeting minutes as evidence mounting for a September rate increase by the European Central Bank.
Kansas City Fed’s Schmid says inflation remains persistent, rates not restrictive
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president Jeffrey Schmid signals support for higher rates to curb stubborn price pressures amid 2% inflation target.
Six EU net contributors push for deep cuts to €2 trillion budget plan
Germany, Austria and four other net contributors demand reductions of several hundred billion euros to the EU's 2028-2034 budget, citing national consolidation needs and rejecting further joint borrowing.
U.S. manufacturing data, Treasury auctions set for Monday
Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed index releases, along with 3- and 6-month Treasury bill auctions, will provide fresh signals on U.S. industrial activity and short-term borrowing costs.
Canadian bond yields steady as global rates swing
Canada's government debt yields held firm while U.S. Treasuries gyrated on auctions and inflation data. No domestic catalysts drove movement.
Brazil adds 58,568 jobs in July, misses forecasts
Net job creation fell short of expectations as labor market growth slowed to the weakest pace in 2026. Year-to-date hiring also declined 21% from 2025 levels.
Brazil central bank sells $2 bln in spot and swap auctions
Central Bank of Brazil conducts simultaneous $1 billion spot sale and $1 billion reverse currency swap auction to provide dollar liquidity.
U.S. jobless claims fall to 203,000; trade deficit widens in July
Initial jobless claims declined as the goods trade deficit expanded to $118.8 billion amid rising imports and falling exports. Continued claims also decreased, aligning with the August nonfarm payrolls period.
Global bond selloff deepens as yields hit multi-decade highs
Rising inflation bets, soaring debt loads and central bank hawkishness have driven global bond yields to levels not seen in decades, with Japan's 10-year yield at 3% for the first time since 1996.
US Treasury Secretary urges G20 to prioritize growth over debt reduction
Scott Bessent tells G20 financial leaders in Asheville that economic expansion is the primary solution to global debt burdens amid post-crisis and pandemic-era obligations.
Fed’s Schmid says current rates not restricting growth, flags rate hike risk
Kansas City Fed chief says policy stance is not yet restrictive enough to curb inflation, signaling potential hikes despite economic resilience. Remarks made at Jackson Hole conference.
Brazil's industrial confidence posts steepest monthly drop in a year
August reading falls 3.5 points to 93.7, driven by weaker demand and rising inventories; current conditions index hits lowest since December 2025.
Fed's Warsh to deliver pivotal speech at Jackson Hole symposium
Investors await signals on U.S. monetary policy and inflation strategy as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addresses the annual Kansas City Fed gathering in Wyoming. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and debt sustainability concerns add urgency to the remarks.
ECB minutes show oil price swings, inflation risks remain
Governing Council’s July meeting minutes highlight persistent energy price volatility, upward pressure on food costs and rising medium-term inflation expectations despite recent oil price declines.
U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above Fed target ahead of Warsh speech
July data shows consumer prices rising at a 3.7% annual pace, defying the Fed's 2% target. Markets price in a September rate hike as policymakers debate the inflation outlook.
Australia 10-year yields hit 15-year high on strong GDP, inflation concerns
Ten-year government bond yield climbs to 5.223% as economic growth and inflation data outpace forecasts, lifting rate hike expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Chicago PMI drops to 47.1, signaling manufacturing contraction
Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index falls sharply to 47.1 in August, well below forecasts of 57.8 and prior month's 57.6, indicating a downturn in regional manufacturing activity.
Brazil formal job creation slows sharply in July, misses forecasts
Net formal employment gains fell to 58,568 in July, the weakest monthly increase of 2024 and below all economist estimates. Year-to-date hiring lags 21% behind 2023 pace.
Morning Bid: Who will police the bond vigilantes?
Markets await clarity on oversight of investor-driven bond market pressures.
Chicago Fed chief says no conflict with Treasury on debt policy
Austan Goolsbee says Treasury’s debt actions align with broader U.S. economic goals and won’t clash with Fed policy decisions.
Brazil adds 58,568 formal jobs in July, below expectations
Net job creation fell short of forecasts as 2.26 million hires offset 2.20 million dismissals. Caged data released by the Labor Ministry showed weaker-than-anticipated labor market momentum.
U.S. Treasury Secretary urges G20 to prioritize growth over debt reduction
Scott Bessent tells finance leaders that economic expansion is the primary solution to unsustainable global debt levels, citing post-crisis and pandemic-era borrowing. G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, begins Monday.
Canada's GDP growth accelerates to 3.3% annualized rate
Quarterly expansion of 0.3% outpaces major European economies and Japan, with current account swinging to an $8.8 billion surplus.
German consumer confidence rises to -26.6 in September: GfK
Index climbs for fourth straight month as income and economic expectations improve, though outlook remains subdued amid persistent uncertainties.
Brazil's 2027 budget projects primary surplus of 0.1% of GDP
Draft budget targets a 0.1% primary surplus next year, below the 0.5% target but within the allowed tolerance range. Minister Moretti confirmed the projection in an interview.
White House restricts large-scale foreign electrical equipment imports
Order targets equipment above 69kV, barring imports from entities linked to covered foreign jurisdictions. Citi sees moderate upside for Siemens Energy.
Swiss mortgage reference rate held at 1.25% in September
The Swiss Federal Office for Housing left the key mortgage reference rate unchanged at 1.25% as widely anticipated, with no near-term decline expected under current conditions.
UBS warns Swiss bank capital rules could add $13 bln in costs
Swiss bank regulator proposals would increase Tier-1 capital requirements by $13 billion, on top of existing burdens, UBS says. Industry and authorities criticize the plan as excessive and impractical.
UBS warns Swiss AT1 capital demands could rise $13 bln under WAK-S proposal
Bank estimates 13 billion USD in additional Tier-1 capital if WAK-S commission’s draft rules are enacted, atop 30 billion USD already required post-Credit Suisse takeover.
Bundesbank chief flags possible ECB rate hike, warns on Germany’s AAA rating
Joachim Nagel signals markets may be right on an ECB rate increase next week, citing persistent inflation, while urging Berlin to preserve Germany’s top credit rating amid a widening fiscal deficit.
U.S. ISM manufacturing index falls to 54.6 in August as new orders weaken
U.S. factory activity slowed more than expected last month, with the ISM index dropping to 54.6 from 55.6 in July. New orders and employment both declined, while prices paid remained steady.
Israel’s central bank cuts rates for third time as global tightening trend persists
The Bank of Israel reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the lowest since 2022, citing easing inflation and a strong shekel. Analysts had expected no change.
Fed's Barr signals readiness to hike rates if inflation fails to ease
Federal Reserve Director Michael Barr states the central bank remains prepared to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting if inflation does not show sufficient moderation. Markets price in a 0.25% increase.
U.S. job openings fall short of forecasts in July JOLTS report
U.S. job openings declined to 7.27 million in July, below the 7.33 million expected and down from a revised 7.18 million in June, signaling a cooling labor market.
Brazil keeps 2026 GDP growth forecast at 2.3% after Q2 slowdown
Ministry of Finance maintains 2026 growth outlook despite 0.5% quarterly expansion in Q2, citing policy effects fading and credit cost reductions. First-quarter growth revised to 1.1%.
U.S. factory activity slows in August as input costs remain elevated
ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, while input prices held at 71.1, signaling persistent inflation pressures despite easing demand.
Brazil Q2 GDP growth beats forecasts as consumption weakens
Second-quarter expansion of 0.5% exceeds expectations, but household consumption falls 0.4% as policymakers eye gradual Selic cuts.
U.S. job openings rise in July as June data revised lower
Openings increased by 89,000 to 7.27 million, while June figures were cut to 7.18 million. Manufacturing sector saw a 79,000 rise in unfilled positions.
Brazil Q2 GDP growth beats forecasts, but outlook trimmed on credit risks
Second-quarter expansion of 0.5% exceeded expectations, but economists downgrade growth projections for H2 2026 and 2027 citing tight credit conditions and policy uncertainty ahead of October elections.
G20 backs measures to curb trade surplus distortions, excluding China
Ministers agree to eliminate non-market policies worsening imbalances, while China opposes key clauses. Meeting held in Asheville, North Carolina.
South Korea inflation rises 3.1% in August, below forecasts
Consumer prices accelerated from July but missed expectations as energy and telecom costs remained elevated. Core inflation climbed to 3.4%.
Global bond rout deepens as U.S. 2-year yield hits 2025 high
Treasury yields surge to multi-year peaks as Middle East tensions and inflation concerns drive a broad sell-off. European and Japanese yields also climb to decade-plus highs.
Global bond selloff deepens as 2-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2025
Treasury yields surge to multi-year peaks amid Middle East tensions and inflation concerns, while European and Japanese debt markets follow. Upcoming U.S. jobs data and ECB meeting add to market focus.
Norway's mainland GDP grows 0.3% in Q2, misses forecasts
Mainland economy expands below expected 0.4% pace as Statistics Norway reports modest expansion for April-June 2026.
BIS chief says stablecoins lack credibility as mass-payment tool
Bank for International Settlements' Pablo Hernandez de Cos argues tokenized deposits are a more viable path for blockchain-based payments than stablecoins, citing risks to monetary sovereignty and banking stability.
Euro zone lending growth accelerates in July, ECB data shows
Corporate loan growth rose to 4.4% annually while household lending increased to 3.1%, signaling modest expansion in credit demand after the ECB's June rate hike.
UK rate hike expectations pushed to early 2027 as bond yields ease
Market pricing shows no full quarter-point increase expected until February 2027, with 10-year gilt yields falling to a two-week low before reversing gains. BoE Governor cites geopolitical risks as a key driver.
Sweden producer prices rise 0.1% in July, annual gain slows to 6.4%
Swedish producer prices increased 0.1% month-on-month in July, following June's identical rise, while the annual rate eased to 6.4% from 7.4%.
ANZ flags November RBA hike risk as Australia inflation proves sticky
Trimmed mean CPI rose 0.5% in July, exceeding expectations and prompting ANZ to warn of a potential November rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Australia's persistent inflation raises odds of November rate hike
Trimmed mean CPI rose 0.5% in July, exceeding forecasts and pushing the annualized three-month measure to a record 4.7%. Markets price in a 40% chance of a hike next month.
U.S. inflation cools market sentiment ahead of Jackson Hole
July PCE data shows sticky prices, stocks mixed as dollar strengthens and copper hits record high. Fed’s Warsh speech awaited.
ECB’s Schnabel says further rate hikes needed amid inflation risks
ECB board member warns policy rate is insufficient to return inflation to target, citing strong eurozone growth and geopolitical pressures.
Indonesia's Destry Damayanti backs growth policies if named central bank chief
Destry Damayanti, interim central bank governor and sole nominee for the top post, told lawmakers she would prioritise policies supporting economic expansion and rupiah stability if confirmed.
European yields rise after Schnabel warns on rates
German Bund yields climb from two-week lows as ECB's Schnabel signals further hikes may be needed. U.S. Treasury yields also advance ahead of Jackson Hole remarks.
ECB seen poised for September rate hike amid persistent inflation pressures
Eurozone central bankers may raise benchmark rate to 2.5% next month to curb inflation near 3%, while markets expect one or two additional hikes. Robust growth outlook limits further tightening.
UK entry-level jobs plummet 36% as AI, automation reshape labor market
Survey finds nearly half of large UK firms cut entry roles last year, citing AI and automation; youth unemployment hits decade high. Government warned of 'lost generation' risk.
German inflation rises to 2.9% in August, below expectations
German consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year in August, up from 2.8% in July but below the 3.1% forecast. Energy inflation accelerated to 10.5% amid regional supply pressures.
Eurozone growth accelerates, ECB rate hike bets firm up
Eurozone GDP rose 0.45% in Q2, led by exports, while inflation pressures persist. Traders price in a September ECB rate hike as officials warn of prolonged energy risks.
Warsh signals Fed policy shift in Jackson Hole speech
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole reaffirmed the central bank’s 2% PCE inflation target and aligned his stance with FOMC consensus. Markets reassess September rate hike odds.
German inflation rises to 2.9% in August as energy costs surge
Consumer prices accelerated on higher energy costs, exceeding analyst estimates, while core inflation held steady. Euro zone data due Tuesday may show a similar trend.
India report warns higher food inflation may curb non‑food spending
The government's August monthly economic report says rising food prices could limit household expenditure on discretionary items, while noting uncertainty from an intensifying El Niño and monitoring bond‑market risks.
German inflation rises to 2.9% in August, nearing 3% mark
Consumer prices in Germany accelerated for a second straight month in August, driven by energy costs amid Middle East supply risks. Economists expect further upward pressure on core inflation.
Brazil’s Focus survey shows lower inflation, growth forecasts for 2026
Weekly central bank survey of economists cuts 2026 GDP and inflation expectations as Selic rate cut expectations firm for September. USD/BRL outlook remains steady.
German inflation rises to 2.9% on energy, low Rhine water
Consumer prices in Germany accelerated in August, driven by surging energy costs and disruptions to shipping on the Rhine due to drought. Core inflation held steady at 2.4%.
Fed's Warsh signals shift toward traditional policy stance at Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to align his communication with conventional central banking, reiterating the 2.0% inflation target and detailing his data-driven approach. Markets responded with expectations of tighter policy.
Brazil's gross debt rises to 82.5% of GDP in July
Gross public debt increased to 82.5% of GDP in July from 81.9% in June, exceeding market expectations. Primary surplus fell short of forecasts amid state deficits.
Portugal’s GDP grows 0.8% in Q2, matching initial estimate
Second-quarter expansion driven by net exports and private consumption, offsetting weaker investment. Year-on-year growth accelerates to 2.5%.
India's Q1 GDP growth slows to 7.8% from 8.6% in prior quarter
Growth in Asia's third-largest economy decelerated in the three months to June as domestic demand cooled, government data showed on Monday. The expansion still outpaced most major peers.
Greece's unemployment falls to 7.9% in July, ELSTAT reports
ELSTAT said the seasonally adjusted jobless rate dropped to 7.9% in July from 8.1% in June, with 376,508 people unemployed. Female unemployment stood at 10.4%, male at 5.9%.
Czech government targets 2027 deficit of 389 billion crowns
Finance Minister Alena Schillerova said the 2027 central government budget will run a 389 billion‑crown deficit, up from 310 billion crowns planned for this year, while meeting NATO's 2% defence spending floor.
India's April-July fiscal deficit narrows to $47.8 billion
Shortfall at 4.55 trillion rupees, or 26.8% of annual target, as revenue rises and spending increases. Deficit target remains 4.3% of GDP for FY27.
India's GDP growth slows to 7.8% in Q2, down from 8.6% in Q1
Quarterly expansion misses expectations as manufacturing and services growth moderates, with full-year target of 6.5-7.0% maintained. Government data released Monday.
India's April-July fiscal deficit at 26.8% of FY27 target
Deficit widens to 4.55 trillion rupees in the first four months of the fiscal year, driven by higher capital spending. Target for full year remains 4.3% of GDP.
U.S. Treasury urges G20 to rethink ties with China, escalate pressure on Iran
Finance chief Scott Bessent calls for G20 review of China’s $1.2 trillion trade surplus and $73.9 billion U.S. deficit, as Washington steps up tariffs and prepares talks with Beijing. New Iran sanctions to target banks weekly.
Qatar’s economy contracts 7% in first quarter amid energy decline
The contraction marks the first decline in over a decade as energy sector output falls.
Brazil runoff poll shows Lula, Bolsonaro in technical tie
Latest survey puts President Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% ahead of October election, within margin of error for second-round runoff.
Central bankers at Jackson Hole weigh AI risks to monetary policy
AI-driven market manipulation and opaque policy responses were key themes as global policymakers grappled with the financial dominance of autonomous agents.
Polymarket prepares for misconduct scrutiny ahead of US midterms
The intelligence chief highlights potential integrity risks for prediction markets as the US midterm elections approach.
China's manufacturing PMI edges up but services slump signals uneven recovery
Official factory activity improved slightly in August, yet a persistent decline in services underscores weak domestic demand and a patchy rebound in the world's second-largest economy.
Eurozone growth accelerates, reinforcing ECB rate hike case
Barclays upgrades euro area GDP outlook as sentiment improves, while inflation pressures persist ahead of September ECB meeting.
TSX futures rise ahead of Bank of Canada rate decision
Canadian benchmark index futures climb 0.2% as traders await Wednesday’s policy announcement amid steady inflation and geopolitical oil-price risks.
BOJ's Ueda skips Jackson Hole; Tamura to attend Fed gathering
Japan's central bank governor will miss the annual Fed symposium as focus shifts to the U.S. Treasury Secretary's remarks and next week's G20 finance talks in North Carolina.
Australia's July inflation exceeds forecasts, raises rate hike odds
Consumer prices rose 3.5% year-on-year in July, outpacing projections and keeping pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten policy. Markets now price a 27% chance of a hike in September.
Australia's July inflation exceeds forecasts, fuels RBA rate hike bets
Consumer prices rose 1.0% month-on-month, outpacing expectations and keeping annual inflation at 3.5%. Traders boost September rate hike odds to 38% amid rising core pressures.
German bond yields hit multi-year highs after hawkish Fed signals
Eurozone sovereign debt selloff accelerates after U.S. Treasury yields surge on remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh. ECB rate decision looms.
German yields surge to multi-year peaks after Fed's Warsh signals hawkish stance
Germany's 10-year Bund yield climbs to 12-year high as money markets price near-60% chance of a September U.S. rate hike. ECB decision looms amid rising inflation pressures.
Fed’s Warsh signals hawkish tilt on inflation but leaves rate path unclear
Investors welcomed clearer inflation guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, yet uncertainty persists over the timing and scale of potential rate hikes. Treasury yields and dollar gains reflect shifting expectations.
Canada's Q2 current account surplus surges to record C$8.84 billion
Surplus of C$8.84 billion far exceeds economist forecasts of C$3.9 billion, driven by energy exports amid elevated oil prices. Foreign bond holdings hit a record C$80.8 billion.
Japan’s corporate services inflation accelerates to 3.6% in July
Corporate services price index rose above forecasts, signaling persistent inflation pressures as firms pass on costs. Bank of Japan rate hike bets intensify.
Tokenized deposits may raise U.S. credit costs, Dallas Fed economists warn
Research from Dallas Fed economists suggests programmable deposit tokens could destabilize bank funding, increasing borrowing costs for households and businesses. Banks are already building shared networks to support the technology.
Barclays expects two more Fed rate hikes this year
Barclays projects two additional Federal Reserve rate increases in 2024 following a speech by Fed Governor Christopher J. Warsh.
U.S. Treasury's Bessent dismisses bond market turmoil concerns
Secretary Bessent says longer-dated debt buybacks aim to curb volatility, not distort markets, as 30-year borrowing costs hit 19-year highs.
Japan's corporate services inflation hits 3.6% in July, fastest since 2023
Service-sector producer prices rose 3.6% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in June, as firms pass on rising costs amid a tight labor market and weak yen. Bank of Japan seen hiking rates in September.
U.S. judge rebukes postal service over mail-voting rule but declines to block it
Federal judge in Boston finds USPS violated court order with new mail-in voting requirements, but defers immediate suspension as agency says it cannot implement the changes while her injunction stands.
Brazil unemployment rate falls to 5.3% as wage mass hits record
Jobless rate drops to lowest level since 2012, but robust wage growth keeps central bank policy cautious ahead of September rate decision.
BOJ seen accelerating tightening with 1.25% rate hike in September: poll
A Reuters survey of economists shows 57% expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key rate next month to 1.25%, up from 1% in June, as yen pressure and inflation concerns mount.
IMF chief says global economy holding up to energy shock, flags fiscal risks
Kristalina Georgieva warns of a 'tug of war' between energy supply disruptions and AI-driven growth, as fiscal pressures mount ahead of G20 talks.
UK inflation expectations rise to 3.9% in August, survey shows
Public expectations for price growth over the next year and longer term increased after months of decline, complicating the Bank of England’s inflation outlook.
Brazil DI rates end little changed after IPCA-15, U.S. data
Brazilian interest rate swaps for 2028 and 2035 ended flat to slightly lower as inflation data and U.S. yields offset modestly. IPCA-15 surprised to the downside while core services firmed.
Brazil DI rates fall as U.S. yields, oil decline
Brazilian interbank deposit rates eased Tuesday as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and Brent crude retreated, while Copom rate-cut expectations firmed. DI Jan-2028 fell 8 bps to 13.80%.
Mexico's central bank lifts 2026 growth forecast, extends inflation target timeline
Banxico raises its 2026 GDP growth outlook to 1.5% from 1.1% while pushing back the timeline for headline inflation to hit its 3% target to Q4 2027. Core inflation forecast for Q4 2026 adjusted to 3.5%.
ECB seen raising rates in September as Iran war fuels inflation risks
Central bank officials plan a 25-basis-point hike to 2.50% next month, citing energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict and resilient economic activity.
U.A.E. to Review Banque Misr Over Iran Sanctions Allegations
The U.A.E. central bank will examine Banque Misr’s branches following U.S. Treasury accusations of Iran-related activities.
ECB seen hiking rates in September without forward guidance
Central bank expected to raise deposit rate to 2.50% next month as inflation nears 3%, but policymakers unlikely to signal additional tightening. Next week’s data release may influence decision.
ECB poised to hike rates in September as Iran war stokes inflation risks
European Central Bank expected to lift borrowing costs to 2.50% next month amid energy price pressures tied to regional conflicts. Inflation remains near 3%, while policymakers signal limited scope for further tightening.
Euro yields rebound after Schnabel warns on inflation fight
German two-year Bund yield rises to two-week high as ECB policymaker signals further rate hikes may be needed. U.S. Treasury yields also climb ahead of Jackson Hole symposium.
Bank of Korea lifts rates by 25 bps to 3.0% in second straight hike
South Korea’s central bank raised its key rate to the highest since early 2025 as demand-driven inflation persisted. Only one more 25 bps increase is expected by 2027.
Brazil raises floating-rate debt share forecast to record high
Treasury revises annual financing plan, lifting floating-rate debt projection to 49%-53% of total as borrowing costs remain elevated. Gross debt reaches 81.9% of GDP.
Brazil's IPCA-15 inflation slows further but services pressure keeps Copom cautious
August's IPCA-15 fell 0.40% on the month, exceeding expectations, while core services inflation accelerated. Policy makers face a delicate balance ahead of the September 16 meeting.
IMF warns global economy faces persistent energy risks amid fiscal strains
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the world economy has weathered recent energy disruptions better than expected, but warns of lingering inflation risks and rising fiscal pressures ahead of the G20 meeting.
Boston Fed's Collins signals possible rate hike if inflation stalls
Fed policymaker warns rates may need to rise soon if upcoming data fails to show sustained disinflation, as core PCE inflation holds near 3.3% annually.
Brazil’s election rivals clash over fixing long-term borrowing costs
Presidential rivals propose opposing strategies to lower Brazil’s 7.5% real interest rates amid rising debt levels. Lula’s camp favors bond buybacks, while the opposition insists on spending cuts.
IMF says global economy weathered Iran-linked energy shock better than feared
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cites drawdowns in oil and gas reserves, AI-driven growth and lower energy demand as key buffers against the Strait of Hormuz closure. Risks remain tilted to the downside.
Four regional Fed boards pushed for July rate hike, minutes show
Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis and Kansas City Fed directors voted to raise the primary credit rate by 25 basis points ahead of the July FOMC meeting, but were overruled in the central bank's 9-3 decision.
Brazil’s Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro camps split on tackling high long-term rates
Divergent policy proposals from President Lula’s campaign and Flávio Bolsonaro’s team highlight competing strategies to reduce Brazil’s elevated real borrowing costs, amid rising debt levels.
U.S. economic data dump Wednesday: GDP, durable goods and oil inventories in focus
GDP growth, durable goods orders and EIA crude stockpiles headline a busy U.S. data calendar. Markets await signals on inflation and economic momentum.
Brazil posts record July tax revenue as economic activity strengthens
Federal tax intake hit R$289.3bn, up 9.0% in real terms from a year earlier, as corporate and investment-related levies surged. Year-to-date receipts rose 7.0% to R$1.88tn.
SNB’s Martin says strong bank capital buffers not a competitive drawback
Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman argues robust capital levels help domestic banks weather downturns and gain market share from weaker peers.
U.S. jobless claims, Kansas Fed data headline Thursday's economic calendar
Initial jobless claims forecast at 208K, Kansas Fed composite index among data due before the Jackson Hole symposium. Natural gas storage, retail inventories also on tap.
Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro proposes public debt ceiling if elected
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign plans to introduce a constitutional debt ceiling that would trigger spending caps if gross public debt exceeds 65% of GDP. Adviser Adolfo Sachsida outlines the proposal amid Brazil’s rising debt burden.
ECB officials alarmed by U.S. policy shifts at Jackson Hole
European central bankers cite U.S. Treasury interventions and debt strategy changes as signs of rising transatlantic policy friction. Fed swap lines remain secure, officials say.
Brazil’s IPCA-15 seen at -0.31% in August on Itaipu bonus
Deflation forecast driven by temporary electricity discount; 12-month inflation slows to 4.34% as regulated prices fall. IPCA-15 release slated for Aug. 26.
Brazil's July federal tax revenue rises 8.97% in real terms, hits record
Federal tax collection reached R$289.3 billion, a record for July, driven by oil-related gains and broader economic activity. Adjusted growth excluding one-off oil taxes stood at 6.44%.
Wall Street banks clash over Fed’s GSIB capital surcharge reform
JPMorgan and Bank of America warn of $22 billion in lost capital relief as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley stand to gain. Fed faces mounting pressure ahead of 2027 House oversight shift.
U.S. new home sales fall 10.5% in July as mortgage rates weigh
Sales pace drops to 607,000 units, the lowest since January, while median price falls to $393,800. Consumer buying plans decline to five-year low.
U.S. July PCE inflation data meets expectations, Fed rate path in focus
Core PCE rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in July, aligning with forecasts as markets await Fed commentary. Analysts see steady rates in September, with December hike odds rising.
Italy extends diesel tax cut through early September
Cabinet approves €130 million revenue loss to sustain €17 per liter duty reduction until September 5. Government signals potential targeted aid for lower-income households after expiry.
Colombia struck by 5.1-magnitude quake, no damage reported
A tremor near Los Santos in Santander province registered 5.1 on the Richter scale Wednesday morning, prompting evacuations in Bogotá. Authorities reported no structural damage.
U.S. mortgage rates steady near 6.66% as housing market cools
30-year fixed mortgage averages 6.66% for the week ended Aug. 27, unchanged from the prior week, while 15-year rates rise to 5.98%. Freddie Mac chief economist cites resilient economy and improving supply.
UAE probes Banque Misr UAE after U.S. blocks dollar clearing over Iran ties
Central Bank of UAE launches urgent review of Egypt’s state-owned lender’s Emirati operations following U.S. action citing alleged Iranian financial channel links. Investigation covers transactions over the past two years.
Warsh at Jackson Hole: Fed keeps September rate hike in play, prioritizes inflation
Fed policymaker Kevin Warsh signals readiness to raise rates if inflation fails to cool, while Truist Wealth warns of shifting market dynamics. Treasury yields flatten on hawkish tone.
Mexico posts $8.93 bln current account surplus in Q2, central bank says
Second-quarter surplus contrasts sharply with a revised $18.23 bln deficit in Q1, driven by trade and remittance flows. Central bank data released Tuesday.
Boston Fed's Collins signals near-term rate hike if inflation progress stalls
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins warns rates may need to rise soon if sustained disinflation evidence fails to materialize. Her remarks precede a key Fed symposium.
Boston Fed's Collins signals near-term U.S. rate hike unless inflation keeps falling
Fed official warns rates may need to rise soon if sustained disinflation evidence fails to materialize despite recent progress.
Swiss lawmakers propose restricting 13th pension to domestic retirees
Motion would exclude foreign-based recipients from the supplemental December payment, citing cost-of-living disparities and limited savings potential. Federal council opposes proposal on legal grounds.
Mexico reports $8.93 billion current account surplus in Q2
Surplus reverses Q1 deficit as inflows strengthen; surplus equals 1.65% of GDP, central bank data shows.
U.S. consumer confidence falls to 89.4 in August, lowest since January
Index drops to 89.4 from revised 90.2 in July, with inflation expectations rising to 5.8% over the next year. Conference Board cites deteriorating labor market and business outlook.
U.S. consumer confidence hits seven-month low in August: Conference Board
Index falls to 89.4 as inflation outlook worsens and labor market sentiment sours, according to the Conference Board's latest survey.
U.S. new single-family home sales drop 10.5% in July to 607,000 units
Decline follows June's downward revision and exceeds Reuters' 620,000-unit consensus estimate as high mortgage rates and elevated prices curb demand.
U.S. consumer confidence falls for second straight month in August
Conference Board index drops to 89.4 from downwardly revised 90.2 in July, as persistent inflation and elevated energy costs weigh on sentiment.
Jackson Hole focus shifts to who bears the cost of rising U.S. deficits
Annual Fed gathering examines fiscal dominance risks as budget gaps exceed 4% of GDP for five straight years. Central bank independence and inflation history frame the debate.
Bessent warns disorderly yen moves could destabilize global markets
A senior executive cautions that sharp, unmanaged fluctuations in the yen could disrupt international financial stability.
Druckenmiller criticizes US Treasury plan to suppress bond yields
Investor Stanley Druckenmiller argues that government efforts to artificially lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields will fail, citing a long-standing principle that markets ultimately prevail. The criticism comes as yields hit multi-decade highs amid rising debt and investor demand for higher compensation.
Brazil’s central bank to auction $1 bln spot FX and reverse swap on Thursday
The Banco Central will conduct two simultaneous auctions totaling up to $2 billion, aiming to tighten dollar liquidity and stabilize the exchange rate.
U.S. mortgage delinquencies fall in July, foreclosures rise
National delinquency rate drops to 3.39% as serious delinquencies and foreclosure starts increase year-over-year. Louisiana reports highest non-current rate, Idaho the lowest.
What UK households expect from the Budget
The upcoming UK Budget will be scrutinised for measures addressing household finances amid cost-of-living pressures.
U.S. consumer confidence falls to 89.4 as uncertainty weighs
Index declines from 90.2 to 89.4 in August, missing forecasts of 90.3 and signaling caution amid persistent inflation and growth concerns.
U.S. new home sales drop to 607,000 in July, missing forecasts
July new home sales fell 10.5% to 607,000 units, missing expectations of 620,000, as rising mortgage rates and construction costs weighed on demand.
SNB official urges expansion of countercyclical capital buffer for banks
Antoine Martin, SNB vice president, highlights the need for higher capital reserves to bolster financial stability amid debates over tighter bank oversight in Switzerland.
Hungary reaffirms 2030 euro adoption target despite higher deficit
Finance Minister András Kármán says Hungary remains committed to joining the eurozone by 2030 despite the government projecting a 7.5% budget deficit for 2026, up from earlier forecasts.
US private payrolls rise by 11,750 jobs weekly in late summer
ADP’s NER Pulse shows hiring momentum slowing to a four-week average of 11,750 jobs through August 8, down from peaks in May. Report is preliminary and seasonally adjusted.
Hungary’s central bank cuts key rate to 5.5% in third consecutive move
The National Bank of Hungary lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, citing a decade-low inflation reading of 1.2% in July. Governor Mihaly Varga signaled scope for further quarter-point reductions.
U.S. private payrolls rise 11,750 weekly in four weeks to Aug 8: ADP
Weekly private payroll growth averaged 11,750 jobs in the four weeks to Aug. 8, ADP data shows, up from 9,500 the prior week, as labor market momentum remains subdued.
Hungary’s central bank cuts key rate to 5.5% in third straight move
National Bank of Hungary reduces benchmark rate by 25 bps amid slowing inflation and currency appreciation. Governor Mihaly Varga to hold briefing on policy outlook.
U.S. building permits rise 4.3% in August, below expectations
Permits issued increased for the first time in two months, signaling tentative recovery in construction activity despite missing forecasts.
Brazil consumer confidence falls to lowest since late 2022 in August
FGV's consumer confidence index dropped for a fourth straight month, hitting 84.7 points as households grow more pessimistic on finances and durable goods purchases.
U.S. Treasury buybacks near $4 bln fuel bond rally, CTA short squeeze seen
Long-term Treasury purchases by Scott Bessent's team coincided with a 10-basis-point drop in 30-year yields after a 19-year high. Analysts warn of potential financial repression and fiscal risk compensation.
Japan seeks record $230 billion for debt servicing in FY2027 budget
Finance Ministry requests ¥36.6 trillion to cover interest payments and redemptions, a 17% rise from the current fiscal year's initial allocation. The provisional budget surpasses ¥130 trillion for the first time.
UK Chancellor Healey to unveil cautious budget amid £9 bln fiscal headroom loss
John Healey faces narrowing fiscal headroom as higher debt costs and spending commitments erode £23.6 bln buffer ahead of October 28 budget. Defense spending targets and windfall taxes on banks and energy firms under review.
Australia household spending rises 1.1% in July, fastest since 2023
Monthly household spending in Australia increased for a third straight month in July, supported by gains in recreation, food and health services, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed.
U.S. debt surge reshapes bond market expectations amid rising rates
Total U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion as deficits near 6% of GDP, prompting bond investors to reassess long-term borrowing costs and fiscal sustainability.
U.S. core PCE inflation holds at 3.3% in July, matching forecasts
Analysts see sticky services inflation as a key risk, with Fed policy focus shifting to Jackson Hole and September FOMC meeting. Consumer spending growth adjusted for inflation flat.
Wolfe Research forecasts August payrolls growth of 65,000 jobs
Nonfarm payrolls seen rising by 65,000 in August, outpacing consensus, while unemployment rate edges up to 4.16%. Wolfe also expects annual revisions to add 180,000 jobs.
China’s industrial profit growth slows to 11.2% in July amid AI sector surge
July industrial profit growth cooled to 11.2% year-on-year, down from 15.1% in June, as AI-linked sectors surged while domestic demand lagged. Cumulative growth over seven months eased to 17.6%.
German consumer sentiment improves for fourth straight month in August
Index rises to -26.6 in September from -29.4 in August, outpacing analyst forecasts as economic and income expectations rebound.
German Ifo business climate index rises more than expected in August
The Ifo Business Climate Index climbed to 88.8 in August, its fourth consecutive monthly gain, as uncertainty eased despite rising energy costs and geopolitical risks.
Norway’s mainland GDP growth misses forecasts at 0.3% in Q2
Mainland GDP rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, below the 0.4% consensus. Data excludes volatile oil and gas output, Statistics Norway reports.
German business confidence exceeds forecasts in August
Ifo Institute's business climate index rose to 88.8 in August from a revised 86.7 in July, surpassing economists' median estimate of 87.2. Germany's Q2 GDP growth revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
German business sentiment jumps to 88.8 in August, Ifo survey shows
Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 88.8 from 86.7 in July, beating forecasts of 87.2, as all sectors reported improvement amid energy price pressures.
Global yields steady as U.S. Treasury liquidity plan eases debt supply
Benchmark borrowing costs retreated after Washington's plan to use $940 billion in cash reserves to fund bond buybacks eased oversupply concerns. Brent crude fell as sanctions on Tehran underwhelmed.
Global bond yields ease as sanctions threat fizzles and Treasury cash plan gains traction
U.S. and European sovereign yields retreated as a widely anticipated sanctions package against Tehran failed to materialize, while a potential Treasury cash drawdown to fund bond buybacks eased supply concerns.
Swiss GDP growth revised up to 1.6% in 2025, BFS reports
Revised data shows Switzerland’s economy expanded 1.6% last year, exceeding prior estimates, while 2024 growth was also adjusted higher to 1.5%.
ECB’s Schnabel urges blockchain adoption to preserve monetary policy role
ECB board member Isabel Schnabel argues at Jackson Hole that tokenized central bank money could enhance policy flexibility and counter private digital currencies. Two ECB projects, Pontes and Appia, are cited as steps toward integration.
BoE’s Bailey says second-round inflation effects remain subdued
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signals limited domestic inflation pressure despite energy market volatility. Markets price one rate hike by year-end.
ECB's Schnabel urges central banks to adopt blockchain for tokenized finance
Isabel Schnabel argues central bank money must underpin tokenized finance to ensure stability, reduce fragmentation in euro area markets and modernize monetary policy.
Canada's fiscal deficit narrows sharply in Q1 2026/27 to C$370 mln
Canada recorded a C$370 million budget deficit for the first three months of fiscal 2026/27, down from C$6.28 billion a year earlier. Program spending rose 4.3%, while revenues increased 9.8%.
Smaller Revision Points to More Accurate Jobs Numbers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' 2026 revisions adjust total workforce figures by 0.1 percent.
Canada posts C$370 million Q1 deficit as revenues rise 9.8%
First-quarter budget gap narrows sharply from C$6.28 billion year-ago shortfall amid 4.3% spending growth and 9.8% revenue increase.
Brazilian DI rates rise as Warsh signals Fed inflation vigilance
DI futures climb after Federal Reserve’s Warsh says ‘work remains’ on U.S. inflation, lifting bets on tighter policy. Producer prices in Brazil fall 0.83% in July.
Warsh opens keynote at Jackson Hole symposium amid policy debate
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals Fed’s evolving stance on financial innovation and payments policy as core inflation remains above target. Regional Fed presidents dissent on interest-rate stance.
Warsh warns Fed must act if inflation stays above target
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals potential rate hikes if inflation remains elevated, as PCE data shows little progress toward 2% target.
Rate-hike expectations rise on Warsh speech at Jackson Hole
Comments from a Federal Reserve official at the Jackson Hole symposium have shifted market expectations regarding future interest rate moves.
Germany's Q2 GDP growth revised up to 0.3% as exports rebound
Second-quarter expansion exceeds preliminary estimate, driven by stronger exports and modest household spending. Ifo business climate index rises in August as recovery gains traction.
Fed rate hike odds rise after July PCE inflation uptick
Probability of a September hike increases to 44% as core PCE holds steady at 3.3% while headline PCE climbs to 3.7%.
Treasury bond buyback plan draws billionaire critique
Stanley Druckenmiller warns the U.S. Treasury’s bond buyback initiative undermines market discipline and fiscal oversight.
Swiss economic calendar: Aug 25–Sep 1, 2026
Half-year earnings reports from Swiss companies alongside key macroeconomic data releases and industry events next week.
Brazilian DI rates hold steady as IPCA-15 inflation cools but services accelerate
Short-term DI contracts remain flat near prior session levels, while long-end rates ease modestly. Inflation data shows mixed signals with services inflation still running hot despite headline IPCA-15 easing.
Factors that could prompt a Federal Reserve rate hike
The Federal Reserve has not signaled an imminent change, but several economic conditions could lead to a rate hike.
US consumer spending rises 0.2% in July despite sticky inflation
Personal consumption increased more than forecast as inflation pressures persist. PCE inflation held at 3.7% in July, underscoring the Fed's challenge ahead of Jackson Hole.
Brazil’s inflation cools with first monthly drop in a year, IPCA-15 at 4.24% y/y
Consumer prices fell 0.40% on the month, the first decline since August 2025, while annual inflation eased to 4.24%. Central bank’s next policy meeting set for Sept. 15–16.
RBA minutes reveal August debate on rate hike amid inflation risks
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting show policymakers considered a 25-basis-point hike as inflation pressures persisted, despite leaving rates unchanged at 4.35%. September meeting pricing now reflects a 67% chance of a hike by February.
RBA minutes show debate over rate hike amid inflation risks
Minutes from the August RBA meeting reveal a discussion on raising interest rates by 25 bps, as inflation remains above target. Market pricing reflects a 13% chance of a hike by September.
US inflation holds at 3.7% in July; Q2 GDP growth confirmed at 1.5%
Sticky price pressures persist as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge remains above target for 65 straight months. Second-quarter GDP growth was left unchanged in a government revision.
Brazil inflation falls to 4.24% in early August, within target band
Consumer prices declined 0.4% month-on-month, undershooting forecasts as the central bank's fourth straight Selic cut takes effect ahead of September policy meeting.
Italy seeks €8 bln from EU defence fund, eligible for up to €14.9 bln
Rome files request under the EU's SAFE instrument as coalition tensions persist over defence spending amid fiscal constraints and energy cost pressures.
RBA says reserves exceed demand as it shifts to ample liquidity system
Australia’s central bank transitions to a new liquidity framework while noting reserves remain above system needs. Head of Domestic Markets cites uncertainty over timing to reach ample levels.
France's August inflation accelerates to 2.7% year-on-year
Harmonized consumer prices rose from 2.4% in July, driven by higher energy costs, according to preliminary data from France's statistics agency.
Czech lower house overrides veto to relax budget deficit rules
Legislation allowing higher spending flexibility passes despite objections over fiscal sustainability risks. Defense and infrastructure projects exempted from deficit calculations.
Trump may get up to four chances to shape U.S. Federal Reserve board
Former U.S. President Donald Trump could influence up to four appointments to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors before his potential second term ends in 2028. The board's staggered terms limit direct political control.
U.S. durable goods orders rise 1.1% in July, outpacing forecasts
Orders for U.S. durable goods increased 1.1% last month, surpassing expectations as demand for transportation equipment offset broader weakness in core categories.
U.S. personal income rises 0.4% in July, outpacing forecasts
Private consumption and PCE inflation both exceed expectations as U.S. economic data signals resilient spending and sticky price pressures.
U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.5% in Q2, matching forecasts
Annualized expansion undershoots prior quarter’s 2.1% pace as preliminary estimate aligns with economist projections. Data subject to two subsequent revisions.
U.S. core PCE inflation rises 0.2% in August, matching forecasts
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose in line with expectations, signaling steady but contained price pressures. The dollar held gains after the data.
Germany posts stronger-than-expected Q2 growth, Q2 deficit hits record €71.3bn
German GDP rose 0.3% in Q2, beating prior estimates, while the state deficit widened to €71.3bn in H1 due to defense and infrastructure spending. Analysts warn of rising debt costs amid weak tax revenues.
U.S. inflation holds at 3.7% in July, GDP growth steady at 1.5%
Annual PCE inflation matched June’s 3.7% pace as core services and energy prices offset monthly declines. Second-quarter GDP growth was unrevised at 1.5% amid steady Fed policy.
Erste Bank warns of widening corporate credit spreads amid ECB rate hike bets
Austrian lender Erste Group flags rising pressure on corporate credit spreads as energy costs and ECB rate expectations drive bond market volatility. Volkswagen’s stock slump highlights sector strain.
Three major Australian banks predict RBA rate hike this year
CBA, NAB and ANZ anticipate another increase after inflation rebound; Westpac holds steady. Markets price 50% chance of September hike.
South Korea raises interest rates to 3.00% in back-to-back hike
The Bank of Korea increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as inflation remains above target. The move follows a prior hike and aligns with expectations from most economists surveyed.
BOJ’s Himino signals ‘timely’ rate hike amid inflation pressures
Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino warns of upside inflation risks and calls for gradual but prompt policy tightening, with September seen as a potential meeting for action.
South Korea hikes rates to 3.00% as inflation pressures persist
Bank of Korea raises benchmark rate for second straight meeting, projects gradual tightening into 2027 amid price stability concerns. Treasury bond futures gain 0.2 points.
Bank of Japan's Ueda skips Jackson Hole; focus shifts to G20 meeting
BOJ President Kazuo Ueda will not attend the annual Fed symposium, sending board member Naoki Tamura instead. G20 financial leaders' gathering next week now draws increased attention.
Brazil's IPCA-15 inflation drops 0.40% in August, 12-month rate falls to 4.24%
The consumer price index IPCA-15 declined for the first time since August 2025, while the 12-month reading eased below the central bank's target ceiling. Food, housing and transport costs drove the monthly decrease.
Investors await Fed's Warsh to clarify Jackson Hole policy stance
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's debut speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium faces scrutiny as markets seek clarity on his inflation and rate guidance approach.
German Q2 GDP rises 0.3% on export rebound, beats forecasts
Second-quarter growth exceeded expectations as exports climbed 2%, though capital investment declined. Year-on-year GDP growth matched 1% after historical revisions.
RBA board split on rate hike in August amid inflation risks
Minutes show several members favored a hike to 4.6% but majority opted to hold at 4.35% as inflation pressures eased. Next decision due Sept. 28-29.
Taurus integrates banks with Swift’s blockchain-based tokenized deposit ledger
Taurus links its tokenization and custody tools to Swift’s shared blockchain ledger, enabling member banks to issue and settle tokenized deposits without building new infrastructure. First transactions expected within weeks.
Nevada challenges Trump administration’s Colorado River water cuts plan
State files federal lawsuit to block Interior Department’s 21% water reduction plan for lower basin states, citing legal and environmental violations. Cuts set to begin in 2027.
Druckenmiller calls U.S. Treasury bond buybacks a credibility risk
Billionaire investor warns expanded Treasury buybacks risk undermining market trust and distort long-term yields. Move comes as 30-year yield nears two-decade high.
Brazil's jobless rate falls to 5.3% as employment hits record high
Unemployment in the three months to July dropped to 5.3%, the lowest since 2012, while the number of employed reached a record 103.3 million, IBGE data shows.
ECB signals September rate hike after July pause, cites inflation risks
Accounts from the July 22-23 meeting show policymakers prepared for a 25-basis-point increase in September, while corporate lending growth accelerated to 4.4% in July.
Brazil’s current account deficit widens to $8.11 bln in July
Current account shortfall exceeds forecasts as foreign direct investment falls below expectations. 12-month deficit holds at 2.49% of GDP.
U.S. wholesale inventories jump 1.3% vs 0.2% forecast, stoking growth concerns
Unexpected surge in wholesale stockpiles signals potential demand weakness and risks to economic expansion, overshooting forecasts by a wide margin.
Six EU nations push for €400 billion cut to 2028-2034 budget plan
Germany, Denmark, Netherlands and three others seek 'balanced' reductions to the bloc's €2 trillion long-term budget proposal ahead of 2026 agreement deadline.
ECB minutes signal likely September rate hike amid persistent inflation
Minutes from July’s ECB meeting indicate further tightening may be required if inflation remains elevated. Markets price in a near-certain rate increase on Sept. 10.
Fed’s Hammack says time may be right for rate hike amid inflation concerns
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack signals support for a rate increase, citing persistent inflation above target. Next policy meeting remains weeks away.
Citrini Research forecasts bond rally as U.S. fiscal, Fed policies align
Research firm anticipates a narrowing yield spread between 5-year and 30-year Treasuries by November as Treasury and Fed coordinate debt strategy. Policy shift could drive long-dated bond outperformance.
Sweden lifts 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% ahead of September election
Centre-right coalition raises growth outlook on policy support, citing stronger household finances and lower inflation. Opposition leads in latest polls.
ECB minutes signal stronger case for September rate hike
July meeting minutes and recent data point to growing support among policymakers for a rate increase next month, with risks to inflation remaining tilted to the upside.
ECB signals likely July rate hike after July meeting pause
Minutes show officials prepared to raise benchmark rate to 2.5% from 2.25% as inflation nears 3% and corporate lending surges 4.4%.
Kansas City Fed's Schmid signals further rate hikes despite limited restraint on economy
Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, stated that current policy rates do not appear to be restricting economic activity, while reiterating support for additional hikes to achieve the 2% inflation target.
Fed’s Warsh faces inflation test as U.S. prices rise again
U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above target ahead of the September Fed meeting, with auto, housing and leisure costs accelerating. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh must weigh data against political pressures.
Brazil posts largest July current account deficit in 7 years at $8.11 bln
Current account gap widens to $8.11 billion, exceeding analyst forecasts and hitting the highest level for July since 2019. Foreign direct investment also declines.
UK proposes Bank of England mandate to support stablecoin innovation
HM Treasury plans to add a secondary objective for the BoE to foster digital payment innovation, including stablecoins, while maintaining financial stability as its primary goal. The proposal will be debated in Parliament next month.
China says it will monitor US tariff measures and reserves right to act
China's Ministry of Commerce will watch a possible 7.5% US tariff on Chinese goods and said Beijing reserves the right to take all necessary measures.
Eurozone bank credit growth accelerates in July after ECB rate hike
Lending to companies and households in the euro area rose to 4.4% and 3.1% respectively, the fastest pace since early 2023. The increase followed the ECB's first rate increase in nearly three years.
Euro zone bank lending growth accelerates in July after ECB rate hike
Corporate loan growth rose to 4.4% annually while household lending increased to 3.1%, data from the European Central Bank showed. The pickup followed the ECB's first rate increase in nearly three years.
SNB insists on stricter capital rules for UBS despite parliamentary pushback
Swiss National Bank vice chair rejects compromise proposal to ease CET1 capital requirements for UBS, citing financial stability risks. Parliamentary committee expected to rule next week.
UK proposes new Bank of England objective for stablecoins
The Bank of England would maintain financial stability as its core duty while adding a formal objective for stablecoins.
Germany's Q2 GDP grows 0.3% as exports drive rebound
Germany's economy expanded 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, beating expectations, while exports surged 2.6% and manufacturing added 0.9% to growth. Annual revision adds 0.8 percentage point to 2011-2021 GDP data.
France’s 2027 budget battle: key risks as deficit pressures mount
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces a minority government and tight deadlines to pass France’s 2027 budget amid weak growth, emergency spending, and constitutional constraints. A failure to legislate could trigger unprecedented fiscal paralysis.
U.S. Treasury and Fed chiefs clash over who should set the price of money
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh differ sharply on monetary policy, with Bessent expanding debt buybacks while Warsh advocates letting markets dictate yields. Investors weigh the implications as 30-year rates hit 19-year highs.
Global economic calendar: Key events for Aug 27, 2026
Earnings season continues with German, French and U.S. companies reporting quarterly figures while central bank data and labor indicators take center stage in Europe and the U.S.
Swiss economic calendar: Key events for Aug 27-Sep 3, 2026
Swiss companies report first-half results while macro data on employment, retail sales and inflation are due. Regulatory and sector events also feature in the week's agenda.
ECB’s Schnabel says rates may need to rise further amid inflation risks
ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel warns borrowing costs may need to increase further to bring inflation back to target as energy-driven price pressures persist. Markets seen as aligned with policy guidance.
U.S. Treasury to maintain debt auction schedule despite expanded buybacks
Secretary Scott Bessent says the department will proceed with planned auctions while doubling quarterly bond repurchases starting next month. Buybacks to target 10- and 20-year securities.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook's lawyer rejects Trump's dismissal bid
Attorney for U.S. central bank official argues allegations lack legal merit as White House weighs removal over mortgage contract disputes.
Fed’s Cook’s lawyer rejects White House bid to dismiss her over mortgage fraud claims
Attorney for Lisa Cook says allegations of mortgage fraud lack legal merit as Trump administration seeks her removal. Supreme Court previously blocked similar efforts.
Colombia’s central bank sees inflation near 3% target by mid-2028
Projections indicate inflation will ease to 4.3% by end-2027, still above the 3% target, as domestic demand outpaces supply. Fiscal rule compliance remains suspended through 2027.
ECB’s Cipollone urges integrated European tokenised finance market
ECB executive outlines progress on digital-asset ecosystem, warns fragmentation risks could undermine euro’s global role.
Trump explores Fed reshuffle as Cook case stalls policy influence
White House seeks alternatives to replace Fed Governor Lisa Cook as legal and political hurdles stall removal efforts. Regional bank vacancies and vice chair decisions add to the reshuffle calculus.
Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech awaited as investors seek Fed clarity
Traders look for signals on rate path amid rising bond yields and uncertainty over new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s policy stance at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium.
UBS-CFA indicator rises but uncertainty over Swiss economy grows
Swiss economic sentiment improves for second month, yet expectations diverge sharply; U.S. outlook darkens while SNB seen holding rates at zero. Euro seen above 0.90 CHF with 79% probability.
ECB's Schnabel signals further rate hikes, lifts euro outlook
Isabel Schnabel warns current ECB rates are insufficient to tame inflation, suggesting a prolonged tightening cycle may follow the September move. EUR/USD gains technical momentum as markets reassess policy path.
Thailand holds benchmark rate at 1.00% as growth weakens
Bank of Thailand keeps policy rate unchanged amid second-quarter GDP contraction and slowing annual expansion. Decision aligns with 30 of 32 economist forecasts.
Brazil’s October vote pits divergent fiscal paths but debt targets align
Opposing presidential and congressional candidates offer starkly different fiscal strategies, yet both aim to stabilize Brazil’s debt by 2031 amid widening deficits and rising debt ratios.
Chinese workers in EU see Brussels as tensions rise
Workers in China express growing support for EU institutions amid escalating trade disputes.
Thailand central bank leaves benchmark rate at 1.00% as growth weakens
Bank of Thailand holds key rate unchanged amid 0.2% quarterly GDP contraction and annual growth slowdown to 1.9%. Decision aligns with 30 of 32 economist forecasts.
Swiss analyst confidence rises for second straight month: UBS CFA survey
The UBS CFA Indicator climbed 2.1 points to +12.1 in August, marking the second consecutive positive reading since geopolitical tensions flared. Analysts remain split on Swiss growth, while SNB rate expectations stay anchored near zero through mid-2027.
Swiss real estate risk index falls to lowest in three years, Moneypark says
Moneypark's Real Estate Risk Index dropped to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, driven by stronger PMI, low SNB rates and a slowdown in real price growth, though unemployment and migration weakness remain risks.
U.S. housing, confidence data due Tuesday as markets eye Fed outlook
Building permits and new home sales forecasts point to a modest rebound in construction, while consumer confidence is expected to slip slightly. Richmond Fed’s Barkin also scheduled to speak.
Brazil’s Galípolo flags credit growth risks amid rising household debt
Central bank chief acknowledges debt expansion as credit stimulus broadens access but warns of rising unsecured borrowing costs and defaults. Private payroll loans a key driver.
Poland’s July retail sales rise 3.9%, below expectations
Polish retail sales grew 3.9% year-on-year in July, undershooting forecasts of 4.5% growth. Annual growth slowed from June’s 6.2% as fuel sales declined and clothing demand fell.
Swiss industry warns U.S. tariffs could erode export competitiveness
Swiss manufacturers face rising costs and shrinking margins as a 12.5% U.S. tariff gap widens against EU competitors. Survey shows 42% of firms passing costs to clients, while 5.3% decline in U.S.-bound exports deepens concerns.
Trump Threatens Higher Tariffs on Canadian Exports After Talks Fail
Renewed threats follow the collapse of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada.
ECB's Cipollone sees no eurozone stagflation despite Hormuz tensions
European Central Bank director Piero Cipollone says the eurozone economy remains resilient despite Iran-U.S. tensions disrupting a key oil transit route. Inflation projections align with ECB forecasts through 2028.
German finance minister ties bond yield surge to Iran conflict
Lars Klingbeil links Germany’s 30-year bond yield rise to geopolitical uncertainty from U.S.-Iran tensions. The yield hit 3.79%, the highest since 2011.
Diretora do FMI diz que economia global resistiu ao choque da guerra no Irã
A diretora-geral do Fundo Monetário Internacional avaliou a capacidade de resiliência da economia global diante do conflito no Irã.
German economy grows for third straight quarter, beats expectations
Q2 GDP rises 0.3% quarter-on-quarter as exports rebound, outpacing prior estimate. Manufacturing PMI hits four-year high amid defense, infrastructure orders.
Moody’s affirms Philippines Baa2 rating on fiscal consolidation progress
Ratings agency maintains investment-grade rating with stable outlook as Manila narrows deficit and stabilizes debt burden despite near-term pressures.
Brazil’s central bank weighs steps to curb household debt surge
Central bank chief Gabriel Galipolo flags rising non-mortgage debt and delinquencies as policymakers consider macroprudential tools. Measures under review aim to balance credit access with borrower discipline.
Truflation sees July core PCE at 0.2%, rules out Fed hikes in 2025
Forecasts steady headline and core PCE inflation for July while dismissing near-term interest rate increases. Retail sales fall as consumer caution grows.
Jackson Hole preview: Rate hike bets to test gold, dollar and yields
Assets from gold to Treasuries are set to react as markets brace for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech and a key inflation report. Citi warns gold’s recent surge may be vulnerable to a hawkish surprise.
RBI buys $561 million in forex market in June amid rupee stabilization
Central bank purchases $30.89 billion and sells $30.33 billion in June, reversing prior months' net sales as inflows reach $73 billion. Rupee steadies after record low in May.
U.S. private payrolls rise to 11,750 per week, ADP data shows
Private employers added 11,750 jobs weekly in the four weeks to Aug. 8, up from 9,500, as hiring accelerated for a second straight week. Labor market data revisions show 103,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in May and June.
German GDP, business confidence beat forecasts in Q2
German GDP grew 0.3% in Q2, while the Ifo business climate index rose to 88.8 in August, both exceeding expectations. The economy has expanded for three straight quarters.
Hungary sets 7.5% budget deficit target amid drought and energy crisis
Finance Ministry cites inherited fiscal challenges and crises as it targets a wider deficit, with debt projected to rise to 77.5% of GDP in 2024.
Canada factory sales seen down 0.2% in July - Statscan flash estimate
Manufacturing output likely declined as chemical and fabricated metal sectors weighed on activity, according to Statistics Canada's advance estimate.
Germany's business confidence index rises more than expected in August
Ifo Institute's business climate index increased to 88.8 in August from 86.7 in July, surpassing forecasts of 87.2. Germany's Q2 GDP growth revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
Mexico inflation quickens to 3.26% in early August
Consumer prices rose 0.10% in the first half of August, while core inflation climbed to 3.93% year-over-year. Bank of Mexico's target remains 3% ±1 percentage point.
Truflation forecasts July core PCE at 0.2% MoM, Fed seen on hold through 2026
U.S. core inflation expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July, while Truflation projects the Federal Reserve will forgo rate hikes for the remainder of the year amid mixed economic signals.
Eurozone PMI, inflation data support ECB rate hike bet
Eurozone business activity expanded in August, while inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, reinforcing expectations for a September ECB rate hike. Barclays expects a 25 bps increase.
Brazil 2026 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.95% in latest central bank survey
Analysts trimmed Brazil's 2026 GDP growth outlook to 1.95% from 1.98% in the latest weekly central bank survey. Inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 were largely unchanged.
Brazil sets 2027 minimum wage at R$1,741, budget bill on track
The federal government has finalized the minimum wage for 2027 at R$1,741, with the 2027 budget bill set for submission by August 31. Adjustments comply with legal inflation and GDP-linked formulas.
Mexico's GDP grows 1.4% sequentially in Q2, below preliminary estimate
Latin America's second-largest economy expanded 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, rebounding from a revised 0.3% contraction in Q1, while annual growth reached 2.1%.
Citadel warns Treasury bond buybacks may weaken dollar
Citadel Securities cautions that expanded U.S. long-dated Treasury buybacks could ease financial conditions and stoke inflation by depressing the dollar.
U.S. Treasury launches quantum-readiness task force for financial sector
New public-private initiative aims to transition the financial system to quantum-safe cryptography amid rising concerns over quantum computing threats. Task force follows Trump-era executive order and G7 cybersecurity roadmap.
U.S. Treasury’s $950B cash pile seen fueling surge in long-bond buybacks
Expanded buyback program, starting Sept. 9, aims to stabilize 30-year yields near 19-year highs. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals broader toolkit amid geopolitical bond-market volatility.
UK household energy debt hits £6 billion as price cap set to rise 4%
Outstanding energy bills surge to £6 billion, with regulator Ofgem poised to lift the price cap to a three-year high. Unpaid debt adds £50 annually to household bills.
Brazil’s banks urge fiscal discipline as public debt nears 82% of GDP
Major Brazilian lenders warn of unsustainable debt trajectory amid rising deficits and call for structural reforms ahead of elections.
ECB's Cipollone sees low risk of stagflation from Strait of Hormuz crisis
European Central Bank policymaker Piero Cipollone says macroeconomic changes warrant monitoring but sees no immediate signs of stagflation despite geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Germany's social spending hits record as aging population drives costs
Social budget surged 11.5% between 2019-2025, with over 70% of outlays tied to elderly care and illness. Ifo Institute warns demographic trends will keep pressure on public finances.
Mexico’s Q2 GDP grows 1.4% QoQ as services, construction rebound
Second-quarter expansion driven by services and construction, offsetting a revised Q1 contraction of 0.3%. Annual growth slows to 2.1% as trade tensions weigh.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield draws investor scrutiny amid global bond rout
Long-end U.S. yields remain a focal point as global peers hit multi-decade highs. Analysts warn against excessive pessimism despite rising fiscal concerns.
ECB outlines privacy safeguards for digital euro amid global backlash
Central bank says Eurosystem cannot identify users in digital euro transactions, while lawmakers in the U.S. move to block CBDCs. Pilot phase slated for 2027.
Moody’s affirms Philippines’ Baa2 rating with stable outlook
Rating agency cites fiscal consolidation efforts and resilient funding access as key strengths, while warning of debt affordability pressures and climate risks.
Moody’s lifts Pakistan’s sovereign ratings to B3 from Caa1
Upgrade reflects improving external buffers and fiscal metrics amid macroeconomic stabilization, though debt affordability remains a key constraint.
Bond yields rise ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to address surging Treasury yields and inflation expectations at this week’s annual symposium.
Eurozone PMI rises as inflation pressures ECB rate path
Euro area business activity improved in August, but rising energy costs and sticky core inflation may limit the ECB's scope for further tightening beyond September.
Wolfe warns AI spending at risk as U.S. yields rise on Fed policy shifts
Analysts flag higher borrowing costs for tech firms financing AI expansion as Treasury yields climb. Nvidia earnings and Fed commentary loom.
U.S. Treasury’s buyback plan struggles to durably lower long-term yields: Barclays
Barclays warns the Treasury’s expanded long-end buybacks face an uphill battle to sustainably reduce yields amid structural pressures, including fiscal deterioration and AI-driven bond demand.
Barclays flags S&P 500 gains ahead of Fed hikes, small-caps lag
Analysis of five past rate-hike cycles shows the S&P 500 rose 2.2% in the three months before the first Fed move, while energy and industrials led sectors. Small-caps fell 7.2% in the quarter after tightening began.
UK growth outlook steady despite inflation uptick, Barclays says
Flash PMI data signals resilient activity in August, but inflation pressures and fiscal slippage weigh on outlook. Barclays lifts 2027 inflation forecast.
UK growth holds despite inflation pressures, Barclays says
Composite PMI rises to 52.5 in August as services lead; Barclays lifts 2027 inflation forecast to 2.5%.
UBS sees Swiss rents rising despite record-low reference rate
Swiss mortgage reference rate to stay at 1.25% through 2027, but new rental contracts remain 15% higher than five years ago as supply tightens.
Countries at Risk from Trump’s Iran Economic Penalties
Trump’s plan to impose penalties on nations trading with Iran raises concerns over potential economic fallout.
Jackson Hole looms as U.S. Treasury, Fed policy shift into focus
Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program frame a pivotal week for U.S. policy and markets. The dollar weakens as yields face pressure.
Poland retail sales rise 3.9% y/y in July, miss forecasts
July’s 3.9% year-on-year gain undershoots the 4.5% consensus as growth slows from June’s 6.2%. Fuel sales fell 0.2% y/y, while electronics and pharmaceuticals led gains.
ECB's Cipollone urges Single Market reforms to boost EU firms' competitiveness
Executive Board member highlights removal of internal trade barriers as key to scaling EU firms amid external shocks, while warning against over-reliance on monetary policy.
China’s netizens criticize professor over gig work remarks
Public backlash follows comments suggesting gig work functions as welfare.
Singapore core inflation slows to 2.0% in July, below forecasts
Consumer prices excluding housing and transport rose 2.0% year-on-year, undershooting market expectations as GDP growth accelerated to 5.9% in Q2.
Fed’s Kashkari says rising Treasury yields not a policy concern
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dismisses rising U.S. Treasury yields as a factor in monetary policy decisions, citing adequate market liquidity. Comments follow July dissent on rates amid persistent inflation concerns.
Turkey’s central bank to restart one-week repo auctions
The Turkish central bank will resume weekly repo operations at its 37% policy rate, ending a suspension tied to inflation risks from regional conflict. Governor Fatih Karahan said conditions had improved.
Kashkari says elevated U.S. Treasury yields not a policy concern
Minneapolis Fed chief downplays 10-year yield near 4.73% and 30-year at highest since 2007, citing ample liquidity and historical precedent.
Former UBS CEO backs Swiss regulator in dispute with bank
Oswald Grübel, ex-CEO of UBS and Credit Suisse, sides with Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter against UBS's pushback on stricter capital rules. He argues state oversight is essential to prevent systemic risk.
U.S. jobless claims fall to 206,000, below forecasts
Initial claims dipped to 206,000 last week, while continuing claims rose to 1.799 million. The data suggests a stable labor market despite July's unexpected payroll decline.
Japan factory activity accelerates in August as chip, AI demand fuels orders
Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in August, the fastest expansion in over eight years, driven by semiconductor and AI-related orders. Services and composite PMIs also strengthened, while cost pressures eased slightly.
Japan's core CPI rises to 1.8% in July, still below BOJ target
Japan's core consumer prices rose for a third straight month in July, though inflation remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, reinforcing expectations for a rate hike by September.
UK retail sales fall 0.5% in July as June surge unwinds
July decline follows June’s boost, with core sales down 0.9% and clothing volumes dropping 2.7%. Analysts cite demand pull-forward and weather effects.
BofA warns U.S. dollar could fall if Treasury bond intervention fails
Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett cautions that a failure to cap 30-year yields below 5% could weaken the dollar, while global equity inflows hit a three-week high.
U.S. services sector drives faster business activity, S&P Global PMI shows
U.S. services PMI rose to 56.8 in August, the highest since December 2024, while the composite index hit 56.0, the strongest since April 2022. Manufacturing PMI fell to a five-month low of 53.2.
U.S. services activity accelerates to 20-month high in August: S&P Global
Services PMI rose to 56.8, the fastest since late 2024, while manufacturing slowed to 53.2. Composite index climbed to 56.0, signaling broad-based expansion ahead of the third quarter.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI hits 51-month high in August flash data
Factory activity in Germany surged to its strongest level since mid-2022, offsetting a fifth straight monthly decline in services as the economy shows uneven momentum.
Eurozone business activity hits nine-month high as manufacturing surges
Eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August, driven by the strongest manufacturing growth in over four years. Services activity remained stable at 51.7.
UK private sector growth accelerates in August as services rebound
Composite PMI rises to 52.5, marking second straight month of expansion, while services sector jobs decline continues for 23rd month.
Japan's core inflation accelerates to 1.8% in July, BOJ seen hiking rates
Underlying price pressures rose for a second month as yen weakness and Middle East tensions lifted energy costs. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates in September.
Eurozone business activity growth hits highest since November as PMI rises
Eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1 in August, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest expansion since November 2025. Manufacturing led gains while services held steady, with hiring resuming after three years.
Japan PM links inflation, bond yields to economic growth
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi says rising prices and bond yields reflect Japan’s expanding economy, while vowing to prioritize wage growth and fiscal stability.
Euro zone wage growth slows in Q2, ECB data shows
Negotiated wages rose 2.44% in the three months to June, down from 2.56% in Q1, according to European Central Bank figures released Friday.
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations fall for third month in July: ECB survey
Median inflation projections for the next 12 months declined to 2.9% from 3.0%, while three-year outlook eased to 2.7%. Five-year expectations remained unchanged at 2.4%.
Magnitude 5.8 earthquake strikes off Japan's Honshu coast
Quake occurred Sunday at a depth of 78 km, according to the German Research Centre for Geosciences. No immediate damage or tsunami warnings reported.
30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, outpacing dividend stocks by 2.2 points
The gap between the 30-year Treasury yield and dividend stock yields has widened to 2.2 percentage points, the widest since 2007. History suggests divergent paths ahead for bonds and equities.
Trump says U.S., Canada close to trade deal
President Donald Trump expects a trade agreement with Canada to be finalized soon, while negotiations with Mexico have also begun. Remarks made at Joint Base Andrews.
U.S. economic data due Monday: Chicago Fed index, Treasury bill auctions
Chicago Fed activity gauge and $50 billion in 3- and 6-month Treasury bill sales headline Monday’s U.S. data slate. Previous readings show modest contraction and steady yields.
U.S. to transfer $725 million to UN amid $4 billion debt dispute
Payment covers less than 20% of Washington’s U.N. arrears, easing immediate liquidity pressure but leaving long-term obligations unresolved. Trump administration notifies Congress ahead of UNGA speech.
Euro zone bond yields steady as U.S. yields climb after volatile week
German 10-year bund yield holds near 15-year high at 3.2572% as U.S. 2-year yield rises 9 bps. U.S. Treasury intervention offers temporary relief amid global bond market turbulence.
US Treasury yields climb after services PMI hits 20-month high
2-year yield rises 3.8 bps to 4.223% as services activity accelerates; 10-year and 30-year also gain. Manufacturing slowdown persists amid geopolitical disruptions.
Eurozone consumer confidence improves unexpectedly in August
Eurozone consumer sentiment rose 0.4 points to -15.5 in August, defying forecasts for a slight decline to -16.0, as EU data shows gradual recovery from March-April lows.
UK economy grows 0.4% in Q2 as Burnham prepares first budget
Growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter, led by services and AI-related sectors, ahead of Finance Minister John Healey’s October budget. Retail sales and consumer confidence also improved.
Euro zone consumer confidence rises to -15.5 in August: EC
Consumer morale improved slightly in August, exceeding expectations despite ongoing economic uncertainty. The flash estimate from the European Commission shows a marginal uptick from July's reading.
Canada retail sales drop 0.8% in July after six-month rise
July decline ends streak of six consecutive monthly gains as gasoline prices ease and core retail sales moderate. Total sales dip to $73.7 billion.
U.S. services PMI hits 20-month high as economy accelerates to 3% growth pace
S&P Global’s August survey shows the fastest services expansion since late 2024, while manufacturing activity slows to a five-month low amid supply disruptions tied to regional conflict.
Ethiopia’s creditors back $1 bln bond deal, easing default exit
Official creditor committee approves preliminary Eurobond restructuring agreement, paving way for Ethiopia to emerge from default. Deal includes comparability clause and potential 'New Money Warrant' dispute.
Markets price sharper ECB rate hikes as hawkish bets rise
Traders lift deposit-rate wagers to near 3% by late 2027, with a September increase seen as the next step. Oil and gas markets remain elevated amid Middle East tensions.
SNB’s Tschudin says negative rates remain an option in Switzerland
Swiss National Bank director Petra Tschudin cites anchored inflation expectations and a stable CPI basket as key factors behind record-low inflation. The central bank retains all policy tools, including sub-zero rates, to meet its 0-2% inflation target.
China to tighten outbound investment rules with expanded scope
Draft revisions by the NDRC aim to enhance investor protections and reporting for cross-border deals amid rising geopolitical risks. Public feedback sought until Sept. 20.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hits 15-year high as bond selloff deepens
Yields surge past 5.3% amid rising debt costs and geopolitical risks; Treasury to expand buyback operations to $4 billion per auction.
U.S. national debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
Total public debt reaches $40.047 trillion as borrowing accelerates under Trump and Biden administrations amid rising deficits and Treasury bond yields.
U.S. judge blocks visa suspension for applicants from 75 countries
Federal judge rules State Department exceeded authority in barring immigrant visas based on nationality. Policy covered Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia.
Investors Rethink Portfolios as Inflation Fears Drive Shift to Alternatives
Traditional 60/40 allocations struggle as inflation erodes returns; advisors favor short-duration bonds, commodities and real assets to hedge purchasing power.
Barclays flags fiscal dominance as top market risk amid rising bond yields
Barclays warns of growing fiscal dominance as long-end yields climb, with French OAT spreads near post-pandemic highs and U.S. Treasury buybacks offering limited relief. Oil above $90 a barrel and euro strength underscore market jitters.
Euro zone consumer inflation expectations ease in July survey
Median perceived inflation over the past year fell to 3.5% while one-year-ahead expectations dipped to 2.9%. Income growth expectations also softened as spending growth outlook remained steady.
German business activity expands modestly in August, PMI shows
Manufacturing rebound offsets services slowdown as composite PMI falls to 51.0, remaining above the growth threshold. Economists had expected no change from July.
UK retail sales fall 0.5% in July after World Cup-driven June surge
Clothing and footwear led the decline as summer sales pulled forward demand, while annual growth slowed to 1.6%. GfK confidence hit a two-year high in August.
China to bolster slowing economy with further fiscal measures
Vice Finance Minister Liao Min outlines plans to accelerate budgeted infrastructure spending and deepen tax reforms. Central bank maintains accommodative stance without signaling rate cuts.
Global economic calendar for Aug 21, 2026: PMI, retail sales and business surveys
Key economic releases include S&P Global PMIs for the euro zone, U.S. and U.K., plus German retail sales and French business sentiment. Borussia Dortmund reports preliminary FY25/26 figures.
SNB’s Tschudin warns AI could fuel near-term inflation pressures
Swiss National Bank board member cites redirected investment flows and chip shortages as potential short-term drivers of price gains, though long-term impact remains uncertain.
Bank of Korea signals cautious approach to upcoming policy decisions
Senior Deputy Governor Kwon Min-soo emphasizes flexible, careful monetary policy amid inflation pressures and won strength. Next decision due August 27.
IMF’s Tenreyro warns AI-driven productivity may not ease inflation
Research suggests early AI investments could fuel demand-driven inflation before productivity gains materialize, complicating central bank policy.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumps to 47.4 in August, far above forecast
U.S. factory activity growth surged in August, with the Philadelphia Fed’s gauge rising to 47.4 from 41.4 the prior month, handily beating expectations of 24.1. The rebound signals resilient manufacturing momentum amid broader economic expansion.
UK services PMI rises to six-month high in August, composite index beats forecasts
S&P Global’s flash PMI data show the UK services sector expanded at the fastest pace since February, while manufacturing cooled to a five-month low. Composite reading signals 0.3% quarterly GDP growth.
Argentina’s economic activity rises 2.7% in June, outpacing forecasts
June’s 2.7% year-on-year expansion exceeded market expectations of 1.9%, reversing May’s 0.4% gain as Latin America’s third-largest economy shows tentative recovery signs.
Argentina’s June economic activity rises 2.7%, outpacing forecasts
Latin America’s third-largest economy expanded 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding the 1.9% consensus and reversing May’s 0.4% gain, official data shows.
Brazil to keep fiscal framework if Lula wins second term
Finance Minister Dario Durigan says spending controls and revenue recovery will continue under current framework if President Lula da Silva secures reelection in October. Central bank holds rates at 14%.
U.S. national debt tops $40 trillion as servicing costs near $1.4 trillion
Crossing the $40 trillion mark, the U.S. faces rising debt servicing expenses and elevated Treasury yields, with projections pointing to $50 trillion by 2029. Market intervention has done little to curb structural pressures.
Bank of America warns of market fallout if U.S. bond plan fails
BofA strategist Hartnett sees dollar weakness and increased short bets on risk assets if 30-year Treasury yields stay above 5%. S&P 500 drops 1.9% amid bond-market volatility.
Trump denies directing bond market intervention
The former president stated he did not instruct an aide to influence U.S. Treasury yields.
UK factory orders hit highest since Nov 2024 in August CBI survey
Manufacturing activity gauge rose to -25 from -45 in July, the sharpest improvement in over five years. Export orders turned positive for first time since mid-2022.
BOJ’s July 2027 meeting timing fuels speculation on rate hike timing
The Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting, scheduled for July 21-22, 2027, coincides with the expiration of two hawkish board members’ terms, raising questions about the central bank’s normalization strategy.
Senate Democrats demand answers from USDA over data errors, staff cuts
Six Senate Democrats, led by Amy Klobuchar, question the USDA about revisions to beef export sales and corn acreage data, citing staff losses and potential market impacts.
U.S. Treasury's Bessent to outline Iran sanctions plan on Monday
Secretary Scott Bessent will detail planned measures against Iran and Treasury bond buybacks at a press conference. Bond yields surged before partially reversing after Wednesday's support announcement.
UK consumer confidence hits two-year high in August: GfK
GfK’s index rose to -14 from -17 in July, beating economist forecasts of -18. All but one sub-index improved, with major purchase sentiment at its highest since late 2021.
Japan manufacturing PMI rises to 55.1 as orders expand at fastest pace since 2018
Flash survey shows factory activity accelerating for a second straight month, led by semiconductor and AI-linked demand. Composite index at eight-month high.
US-Anleihe-Rückkäufe bremsen Zinsanstieg, doch Schuldenängste bleiben
Die US-Regierung verdoppelt Rückkäufe langlaufender Anleihen auf mindestens vier Milliarden Dollar, um den Anstieg der Renditen zu dämpfen. Analysten erwarten jedoch nur eine vorübergehende Wirkung, da strukturelle Schuldenprobleme fortbestehen.
U.S. manufacturing, services PMI due Friday alongside rig count data
S&P Global’s August 22 releases will show whether the manufacturing and services sectors maintained growth momentum. Baker Hughes rig counts follow at noon ET.
WEF seeks ECB’s Lagarde as next chair amid leadership transition
Christine Lagarde is reportedly open to leading the World Economic Forum after tensions with founder Klaus Schwab eased. The ECB has no comment on the speculation.
Global bond yields ease from multi-decade highs after U.S. Treasury buyback boost
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield pulled back from overnight lows while Japanese and European sovereign bonds rallied after Treasury expanded long-end buyback capacity. Brent crude held above $91 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions.
U.S. debt tops $40 trillion as Fed minutes, Iran tensions lift markets
Fed minutes show dissent on rates as U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion; Brent crude rises on geopolitical risks while Walmart's ad unit growth supports retail shares.
Sweden’s Riksbank holds key rate at 1.75%, flags possible hike
Central bank leaves benchmark rate unchanged but warns it may tighten policy before year-end if inflation pressures persist. Decision aligns with market expectations.
Poland's corporate wages rise 6.8% in July, outpace forecasts
Average corporate wages in Poland increased 6.8% year-on-year to 9,509.02 zlotys, exceeding expectations, while employment fell 0.8% amid mixed labor market signals.
Euro zone business activity growth accelerates to 10-month high in August
Composite PMI rises to 52.1, led by manufacturing rebound and export recovery. Services growth steady at 51.7 as inflation pressures ease.
Trump widens beef imports to ease prices
Imports are increased as domestic cattle herds shrink due to drought and reduced margins.
Eurozone PMI rises to nine-month high on manufacturing rebound
Flash eurozone composite PMI climbs to 52.1 in August, led by a 54-month high in manufacturing output, while services growth remains subdued. GDP seen expanding 0.3% in Q3.
US economic growth accelerates as services sector surges to 2022 high
Composite PMI rises 1.5 points to 56.0 in August, with services activity hitting the strongest level since late 2024, while manufacturing slows to a five-month low.
U.S. services PMI jumps to 56.8, far above forecasts
Markit’s latest survey shows the U.S. service sector expanded at the fastest pace since early 2024, outpacing expectations as business activity and demand strengthened.
German producer prices rise 3.0% in July, fastest since 2023
Manufacturers' prices increased 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding forecasts and driven by intermediate goods and energy costs. The gain marks the strongest rise since April 2023.
UK consumer confidence rises to highest since Iran conflict start, survey shows
Consumer sentiment improves for third straight month, offering a boost to Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government. Brent crude edges higher on geopolitical tensions.
U.S. Treasury doubles buyback operations as Fed policy focus shifts
Upsized Treasury buybacks for 10-30 year debt may test the Fed's dominance in shaping long-term borrowing costs amid inflation and fiscal pressures.
Fed minutes signal bias toward rate hike as Trump urges cut
Minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting show growing support for higher rates amid persistent inflation, while President Trump reiterates calls for a reduction to ease U.S. debt costs.
U.S. Treasury doubles bond buyback program to $4 billion amid rising yields
Program expansion targets 10- to 30-year Treasuries as borrowing costs climb. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals potential further increases.
U.S. Treasury doubles buybacks as Bessent signals discomfort with yields
U.S. debt tops $40 trillion as Treasury expands buyback program to $4 billion per operation, while Japan and U.S. intervene in currency markets amid bond selloff concerns.
Global economic calendar: August 20, 2026 — earnings, inflation and central bank updates
AEGON, Alibaba and Walmart among companies reporting quarterly results; Germany releases producer prices and trade data alongside Sweden’s Riksbank rate decision.
U.S. bond yields ease on Treasury buybacks but rebound quickly
Long-end Treasury yields slipped after the U.S. doubled buyback operations to $4 billion, yet 30-year yields remain near 19-year highs as debt costs remain elevated.
France private sector activity contracts faster in August
The latest data indicates a sharper decline in France's private sector activity for August.
Germany’s August PMI shows manufacturing rebound, services slowdown
Flash PMI data points to a two-month low for the composite index at 51.0, with manufacturing output surging to a 51-month high of 54.1, while services activity contracted for a fifth straight month.
UK posts unexpected budget deficit in July as spending rises
Public sector net borrowing exceeded forecasts for July amid higher-than-anticipated government spending.
India's private sector growth accelerates in August as services rebound
HSBC's composite PMI rose to 54.6, driven by a pickup in services activity, while manufacturing growth slowed to a five-year low. Employment gains remained concentrated in services, with factory hiring declining.
Swiss poll shows 12-point lead for rejection of neutrality initiative
Survey by gfs.bern for SRG finds 54% opposed to neutrality proposal, with strongest support from SVP voters. Regional and demographic divides highlighted.
South Korea to launch $72 bln chip windfall fund for youth, AI
Government proposes Future Response Fund to channel semiconductor tax revenue into youth employment, housing and AI investment. Legislation to be submitted with 2027 budget.
Treasury’s bond-buying plan fails to calm long-dated yields
Thirty-year Treasury yields rose toward 5.30% after remarks on potential intervention by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drew little market response.
Japan's core inflation steady at 1.8% in July, BOJ rate hike odds rise
Consumer prices rose 1.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts, while service inflation edged up.
30-year U.S. mortgage rate falls to 6.65%: Freddie Mac
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined for a second straight week, easing to 6.65% from 6.67% a week earlier. The 15-year rate also dipped slightly.
Japan's July exports rise 23.2% y/y, trade deficit widens to $4.01bn
Exports grew for an 11th straight month, outpacing forecasts, while imports surged 27.8% and the trade gap expanded to 634.5 billion yen.
China holds benchmark lending rates steady for 15th month in August
The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, as policymakers prioritize fiscal support over further monetary easing amid weak July economic data.
Global bond yields surge to multi-decade highs on US turmoil
US long-term borrowing costs hit 2007 highs, dragging G7 yields higher amid Iran war, inflation fears and political uncertainty. Central bank responses remain uncertain.
St. Louis Fed’s Musalem keeps September rate call open
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he will not prejudge his view ahead of the September FOMC meeting, citing dependence on incoming data.
Fed's Musalem signals data-dependent stance ahead of September meeting
St. Louis Fed President says September rate decision hinges on incoming data, with inflation still above target. Comments underscore cautious approach to policy amid mixed economic signals.
Mexico’s central bank holds rates at 6.5% amid inflation concerns
Banxico signals prolonged pause as services inflation remains sticky, while peso gains 6% in 2026.
China holds loan prime rates steady for 15th month in August
The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, as weak domestic demand and banking sector constraints limited policy options.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield jumps 5.4 bps after debt buyback plan
Long-dated U.S. bond yields rose after the Treasury announced a larger debt buyback program, while global stocks edged higher following four straight sessions of declines.
Switzerland adopts EU’s 20th Russia sanctions package
New measures include asset freezes on 115 entities and a ban on Russian crypto platforms and digital ruble support. Implementation begins August 20.
U.S. Treasury may expand bond buyback program beyond $4 bln per issue
Secretary Bessent signals potential increase in Treasury bond repurchases to stabilize markets and address yield distortions. Update follows surprise doubling of buyback size announced Wednesday.
Swiss borrowers overpay by CHF 18,000/year on long-term mortgages
Households refinancing into decade-long fixed-rate loans during 2023’s brief high-rate window now face annual overpayments of up to CHF 18,000 versus Saron-linked or short-term options, data shows.
U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
Total public debt hits $40.047 trillion as Treasury ramps up long-dated bond buybacks to ease yields amid rising term premiums.
U.S. Treasury doubles long-dated bond buybacks after yield surge
Long-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell 10 bps after the government doubled planned bond buybacks. Stocks rose, gold and bitcoin gained, while the dollar weakened sharply against the Swiss franc.
Fed minutes signal potential rate hikes if inflation persists
July FOMC minutes show most policymakers favored holding rates but saw upside inflation risks. Three dissenters pushed for a 25-basis-point hike as oil prices and geopolitics cloud the outlook.
Fed minutes show growing inflation worries at July meeting
Minutes from the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting reveal increased concerns over broad-based price pressures, with three policymakers dissenting in favor of a rate hike. The benchmark rate remained at 3.50%-3.75%.
U.S. jobless claims and Philly Fed index due Thursday
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge and weekly unemployment figures are set for release at 7:30 a.m. ET, with forecasts pointing to modest changes in labor and business conditions.
Latin America growth seen slowing to 2.2% in 2026: UN agency
ECLAC revises down 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%, citing a more challenging global backdrop. Region expected to log five straight years of ~2.3% average expansion by 2027.
U.S. Treasury doubles buyback sizes for 10- to 30-year debt to $4 bln
Longer-dated Treasury buybacks to rise to at least $4 billion per operation from September, as yields on 30-year bonds hit 19-year highs. Maximum repurchases could reach $83 billion through November.
Euro zone current account surplus widens to €35.1 bln in June
Primary income gains lift the bloc’s surplus to the highest since March, while the 12-month surplus narrows to 1.7% of GDP.
South Africa's July inflation slows to 4.3%, below forecasts
Consumer prices rose 4.3% year-on-year in July, easing from 5.0% in June and below the 4.5% estimate. Food inflation hit a 16-year low as fuel prices fell sharply.
Extreme weather costs Europe billions as droughts and heatwaves strain economies
Record temperatures and low water levels disrupt shipping, power generation and agriculture, with Allianz estimating a 0.3 percentage point hit to euro zone GDP this year. Southern Europe faces prolonged growth losses and fiscal strain.
FOMC minutes, Target and Analog Devices earnings in focus
U.S. stock futures edge higher ahead of Fed minutes while retailers and chipmakers report earnings. Oil prices rise on Iran tensions, tariffs on Canadian goods paused.
Japan's wholesale inflation spikes in July, raising rate‑hike odds
July wholesale price inflation in Japan surged, boosting expectations that the Bank of Japan may move toward a rate increase.
Egypt’s central bank holds key rates steady at 19%, 20%
The Monetary Policy Committee maintained overnight deposit and lending rates as inflation pressures remain elevated in the North African economy.
Egypt’s central bank leaves key rates at 19-20% as inflation cools
Monetary policy committee holds overnight deposit and lending rates steady amid easing price pressures. Decision follows July inflation slowdown to 33.6% year-on-year.
U.S. accused of interest-rate manipulation after doubling bond buybacks
Criticism of the Swiss National Bank’s currency interventions highlights parallels with Washington’s bond-market interventions, which similarly distort market pricing. Analysis of policy overlap and unintended consequences.
US weekly jobless claims fall to 206,000, below forecasts
Initial unemployment claims declined by 6,000 to 206,000 in the week ended Aug. 15, while continuing claims rose to 1.799 million. The labor market remains tight with the jobless rate at 4.1%.
India’s infrastructure output growth slows to 5.4% in July
India’s infrastructure output rose 5.4% year-on-year in July, down from 6% in June, as iron ore and electricity production moderated. The expansion reflects a revised series with 2022-23 as the base year.
Fed’s Daly says Treasury actions not yet a focus amid inflation mandate
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly signals the central bank remains concentrated on its 2% inflation target, downplaying immediate impact of Treasury’s debt management steps.
IMF hails Lebanon bank law changes as ‘major step’ amid crisis
Parliament passes amendments to bank resolution framework, meeting 99% of IMF demands, but president’s approval and Constitutional Council review still pending.
Fed’s Daly says bond market reflects well-positioned policy stance
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly cites Treasury market signals as evidence that current monetary policy is appropriately calibrated, while dismissing urgency for preemptive rate adjustments.
Canada industrial prices rise 0.6% in July on energy gains
Industrial producer prices increased for the first time in two months, led by energy and petroleum products, while core measures excluding energy softened. Annual gain remains elevated at 12.4%.
G7 government debt pressures mount as borrowing costs surge
U.S. debt tops $40 trillion while Japanese and German yields hit multi-decade highs. OECD interest payments overtake defense spending.
UK statistics office raises 2023 and 2024 growth estimates
The UK's official statistics body has upwardly revised its estimates for economic growth in 2023 and 2024.
Nigeria’s reforms averted economic collapse, finance minister says
Subsidy cuts and currency devaluation generated $11.7bn in savings while shrinking the official-parallel FX gap to under 5%.
Japan’s bond rout threatens fiscal plans as 10-year yield nears 3%
Surge in JGB yields to three-decade highs risks derailing Japan’s fiscal strategy, with debt-servicing costs projected to rise by over 30% by fiscal 2029. Policy makers face limited options amid persistent inflation pressures.
U.S. Treasury expands buybacks as long-dated yields retreat from 19-year highs
Expanded liquidity operations target 10-30 year Treasuries as 30-year yield drops 14 bps from peak. Policy shift follows two-day global bond rout.
UK inflation rises to 2.9% in July, exceeding BoE target
Consumer prices climb 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.6% in June, driven by housing and household services costs. Core inflation remains steady at 2.6%.
ECB's Lagarde warns Europe's post-war growth model is eroding
ECB President Christine Lagarde highlights the weakening of Europe's three historical growth pillars—global trade, mid-tech manufacturing, and a stable rules-based order—while outlining domestic resilience and policy responses.
Swiss industrial output rises 5.5% in Q2, reversing Q1 slump
Switzerland’s manufacturing sector rebounds with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in Q2, while industrial sales fall 0.3%. Construction excluded from data.
China set to hold loan prime rates steady in August amid weak economy
All 25 surveyed banks expect the one-year and five-year loan prime rates to remain at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, as policymakers prioritize fiscal measures over monetary easing.
Slovakia’s July inflation slows to 3.2% y/y from 3.5%
Slovak consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in July, while annual inflation eased to 3.2% from 3.6% in June, defying expectations for a monthly decline.
ECB’s Rehn says wage growth stays moderate, inflation risks limited
Finland’s central bank chief cites anchored expectations as key to preventing second-round effects amid steady wage trends.
UK CPI accelerates to 2.9% on energy costs, matching forecasts
Headline inflation rose to a four-month high as Ofgem's energy price cap reset lifted household bills by £221. Analysts see limited second-round effects but warn of further upside.
UK inflation rises to 2.9% in July on higher gas costs; oil climbs after Iran ceasefire lapse
Consumer prices increased more than expected as gas bills surged 14.7%, while Brent crude approached $92 a barrel amid renewed Middle East supply risks. Bank of England policy outlook hinges on jobs data.
UK inflation rises to 2.9% in July, energy costs lift pace
Consumer prices increased as household energy bills surged following Ofgem’s 13% price cap hike. Economists had broadly anticipated the pickup.
RBI flags inflation risks, leaves door open to future rate hikes
India's central bank maintained its policy rate at 5.25% but warned that rising oil prices and broadening price pressures could require tighter policy. Policy stance remains neutral.
China youth unemployment rises to 17.9% in July, highest in 11 months
Urban youth jobless rate climbs to 17.9% amid persistent labor market pressures, while broader unemployment trends show mixed signals across age groups.
RBI signals potential rate hikes as inflation risks rise
Minutes from the August policy meeting show the Reserve Bank of India's rate panel remains watchful on inflation, with a hike possible later this year. Growth forecast lifted to 6.7%.
Iceland to vote on EU accession talks amid Montenegro parallel track
Referendum on restarting EU membership negotiations may influence bloc's enlargement strategy and Montenegro's 2028 accession prospects. Polls show deadlock among Icelandic voters.
Global economic calendar for Aug 19, 2026: earnings, inflation and oil data
Carlsberg and Analog Devices to report quarterly results alongside UK and euro zone inflation data, producer prices and the latest EIA oil inventory report.
Swiss polls show strong rejection of neutrality and food supply initiatives
Leewas survey finds 62% oppose neutrality initiative and 65% reject food supply proposal ahead of Sept. 27 vote. SVP remains sole major party backing neutrality plan.
RBA signals potential rate hike as inflation risks rise
Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady but warns of further tightening if upside inflation risks materialize, citing Middle East tensions and AI-driven demand.
U.S. mortgage applications fall 0.4% as rates remain elevated
Purchase activity declined while refinance applications edged higher, with the 30-year fixed rate holding near 6.77%. The MBA's latest data shows mixed trends in loan demand.
RBA’s Hauser signals possible rate hike if inflation risks materialize
Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warns that Australia’s central bank may resume tightening if upside inflation risks, including geopolitical tensions and the AI-driven productivity gap, escalate.
Japan bond yields surge toward 3% amid fiscal and inflation concerns
Benchmark 10-year JGB yield hits 2.945%, nearing a 30-year high as debt levels and inflation pressures weigh on markets. Analysts warn of further upside risk.
Bolivia’s Congress censures economy minister, threatens reform agenda
Lower house votes to remove Jose Gabriel Espinoza after failure to appear before lawmakers; President Paz’s government calls vote unconstitutional and plans legal challenge.
UK pay awards fall to 10-month low as employers tighten budgets
Median pay rise drops to 3.2% in three months to July, with 71% of settlements between 2% and 3.99%. Brightmine data shows 35% of awards lower than last year.
U.S. Treasury yields surge to two-decade high amid rising borrowing costs
A sell-off in long-dated U.S. government bonds pushes the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007, driven by heavy issuance, economic resilience, and inflation risks. The move raises borrowing costs for consumers, companies, and the federal government.
Euro zone bond yields surge to two-decade highs amid debt concerns
German 10-year yield hits 15-year peak as France and Italy follow; ECB tightening bets rise to 45 bps. Oil climbs above $92 a barrel on geopolitical risks.
U.S. appeals court upholds limits on immigration enforcement at houses of worship
Fourth Circuit panel rules Trump-era policy likely violates Religious Freedom Restoration Act; eight faith-based sites protected from enforcement actions.
South Africa’s June retail sales rise 1.6% y/y, slow from May
Annual retail sales growth slowed to 1.6% in June from 2.2% in May, while seasonally adjusted sales fell 0.6% month-on-month. Data released by Statistics South Africa showed sales measured at constant prices.
Germany's borrowing costs surge to 15-year high amid defense spending surge
German 10-year and 30-year bond yields hit multi-decade peaks as geopolitical tensions and fiscal pressures drive borrowing costs higher. U.S. and Japanese yields also climb to multi-year highs.
UK to auction £4bn of 2033 gilts in August 2026
The UK Debt Management Office plans to sell £4 billion of 4.125% Treasury gilts maturing in March 2033, with bidding open via the Bloomberg system next month.
US Treasury boosts liquidity support, 10-year yields fall 4.9 bps
Treasury doubles buyback operations for longer-dated bonds as benchmark yields decline. Fed minutes and 20-year auction awaited.
Boston Fed study finds productivity offset tariff inflation effects
Research from the Boston Fed indicates higher productivity reduced the inflationary impact of recent tariffs.
Fed research finds productivity gains limited tariff inflation
A Federal Reserve study examines the impact of tariffs on inflation amid productivity constraints.
Watchdog Accuses Dominican Sugar Importer of Labor Violations
A report alleges a Dominican sugar importer, previously subject to an import ban, has continued to violate labor standards despite policy changes.
U.S. and India fuel exporters profit amid wartime supply uncertainty
Fuel exporters in the U.S. and India have seen increased earnings as global supply disruptions persist.
Yardeni sees no cause for panic as U.S. yields climb toward 5%
Veteran strategist Edward Yardeni argues rising U.S. Treasury yields remain within a normal range, though he warns of potential pressure from 'Bond Vigilantes' amid fiscal concerns and oil price risks.
Eurozone inflation accelerates to 2.9% in July as ECB weighs next move
Consumer prices rose 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.8% in June, while core inflation edged higher to 2.5%. ECB policymakers will scrutinize the data ahead of their September meeting.
Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July on energy surge
Harmonized inflation accelerated from 2.8% in June as energy costs surged 10.3% year-over-year, while ECB policymaker Olli Rehn sees no second-round effects yet.
South Africa’s July inflation slows to 4.3%, SARB target still in sight
Annual inflation eased to 4.3% in July, below forecasts, but remains just above the central bank’s 3%-4% target range. Policy outlook hinges on temporary factors.
U.S. pending home sales fall 2.3% in July, missing expectations
Contract signings dropped for a second straight month as higher mortgage rates and limited inventory weighed on buyer activity, data from the National Association of Realtors showed.
Dollar, euro lose nearly half their purchasing power since 2000
U.S. dollar and euro purchasing power halved over 25 years, while Swiss franc held value better amid divergent central bank policies. Inflation trends and wage dynamics compared.
US Treasury yields rise as Iran tensions fuel bond selloff
Benchmark 10-year yield approaches two-year high amid geopolitical risk and global debt market rout. Industrial output growth slows to 0.2% in July.
Chile’s GDP flat in Q2, copper drags as mining sector weighs
Chile’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, missing forecasts for a 0.3% rebound as copper output fell. Annual GDP contracted 0.2%, reversing expectations for modest growth.
U.S. industrial output growth slows to 0.2% in August, below forecast
Factory, mining and utility output rose 0.2% last month, missing expectations for 0.3% and matching July's pace. Analysts cite persistent supply chain pressures and uneven demand.
US import prices fall 0.4% in July, easing inflation pressure
Crude oil costs drove the unexpected decline, while economists had projected a modest rise. Fed rate-cut expectations gain traction ahead of September meeting.
U.S. single-family home starts fall 9.9% in July as rates weigh
Single-family housing starts dropped to 808,000 units amid high mortgage rates, while permits for future construction rose 2.5%. Total residential starts declined 12.4% as affordability pressures persist.
ECB’s Lane warns 3% euro zone inflation still exceeds target
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane signals policy caution as inflation remains one percentage point above the 2% target.
U.S. building permits rise 5% in latest data, reversing prior slump
Permits for new residential construction jumped to a 5% gain, sharply rebounding from a 2.6% decline and signaling stronger momentum in the housing sector.
Japan’s 30-year JGB yield surge signals end of ultra-loose policy era
Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield hit a 30-year high, ending decades of near-zero rates and reshaping global debt markets amid policy shifts and inflation pressures.
U.S. private payrolls rise by 9,500 weekly in early August: ADP
Weekly private-sector hiring rebounded to 9,500 jobs in the four weeks to Aug. 1, reversing seven straight weeks of declines, ADP data shows.
Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs as US-Iran ceasefire collapses
US, UK, Germany, France and Japan see borrowing costs surge after failed negotiations and renewed geopolitical tensions. Investors brace for prolonged inflation pressures.
UK Sells £4 Billion of 10-Year Gilts at 5.156% Yield
The United Kingdom has issued £4 billion in 10-year government bonds, achieving a yield of 5.156%.
German Investor Morale Beats Expectations in August, ZEW Survey Shows
Economic sentiment in Germany improved more than anticipated in August, according to the latest ZEW economic research institute survey.
Bitcoin Pauses at $64,000 as Equities Slip on Yields and Oil
Bitcoin eased 0.6% alongside declining equity futures as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and a White House crypto summit.
German Investor Sentiment Exceeds Forecasts in August
Economic sentiment among investors in Germany improved more than anticipated in August, according to survey data.
US Debt Expansion Prompts Investors to Demand Higher Yields
Rising United States debt levels are leading investors to demand higher returns for purchasing government debt.
Azerbaijan Raises 2026 Inflation Forecast to 5.7%
Azerbaijan's authorities have revised their consumer price growth projection upward for 2026, setting the new inflation forecast at 5.7%.
Bank of England Expected to Hold Rates for Remainder of Year, Reuters Poll Shows
A recent Reuters poll indicates the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates through the rest of the year despite ongoing inflation risks.
Global Stocks Slide and Yields Hold High Amid Mideast Tensions
Equities declined and bond yields remained elevated as escalating conflict concerns in the Middle East rattled financial markets.
Canadian Home Sales Rise for Fourth Consecutive Month in July
Canadian housing market activity expands further as home sales record their fourth straight month of gains in July.
Macau Aims for 60% Non-Gaming GDP Share by 2030
The special administrative region has outlined a target to derive 60% of its gross domestic product from non-gaming sectors by the end of the decade.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment Rises Unexpectedly Despite Lower Water Levels
Financial experts express increased optimism regarding Germany's economic outlook despite new burdens from low river water levels.
German Economic Sentiment Rises Despite Low Water Levels
Financial experts express increased optimism regarding the German economy, despite ongoing economic strains caused by persistent low water levels.
Swiss Unemployment Rate Eases Slightly in Quarterly Comparison
Switzerland's labor market has seen a slight easing recently, according to quarterly comparisons.
Markets Monitor Mideast Tensions as Canada Faces New U.S. Tariffs
Global markets track escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East alongside trade developments involving new U.S. tariffs on Canada.
Bitcoin holds $64,000 as surging yields and oil pressure risk assets
Bitcoin maintained its range near $64,000 even as rising oil prices and surging 30-year Treasury yields weighed on broader risk appetite.
Bond Markets Sell Off Globally on Inflation and Fiscal Concerns
Global bond markets experienced a broad sell-off spanning from the United States to Japan as persistent inflation and fiscal concerns weighed on investor sentiment.
China Grapples With Economic Legacy of Reformer Zhu Rongji
Beijing marks the passing and legacy of former premier Zhu Rongji, renowned for his sweeping market-oriented reforms during the 1990s.
German 10-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2011 Amid Global Bond Sell-Off
Germany's 10-year sovereign bond yield surged to its highest level since 2011 as a broader international debt sell-off escalated.
UK Grocery Inflation Slows to 2.1% in Early August
UK grocery price growth decelerated to 2.1% at the beginning of August, according to market data.
US 30-Year Treasury Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2007 Amid War and Oil Concerns
Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds climbed to their highest levels since 2007, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices.
UK Grocery Inflation Eases Further, Kantar Worldpanel Reports
British grocery price inflation has declined further, according to the latest data from market research firm Worldpanel.
UK Wage Growth Steady at 3.5% Amid Labor Market Slowdown
British wage growth held steady at 3.5%, reflecting a broader cooling in the nation's labor market.
Bond Yields Retreat as Global Markets Adjust
Global bond yields drifted lower in early trading, drawing attention from fixed-income investors as markets reassessed the macroeconomic outlook.
US Government Intervenes in Markets via Equity Stakes and Pricing Incentives
Under President Donald Trump, the US government is utilizing corporate equity stakes, pricing incentives, and market access controls to secure its influence.
Climate Damage Poses Mounting Threat to European Public Finances
Escalating climate-related losses present a growing fiscal risk for European governments, potentially straining public finances.
Bond Investors Push Back as Iran Threatens Escalation
Global bond markets face renewed pressure as geopolitical tensions rise following Iranian threats of a fully offensive military posture.
International Economic Calendar for August 18, 2026
Overview of key international financial and economic data releases scheduled for August 18, 2026.
Swiss Economic Calendar: August 18 to August 25, 2026
An overview of key economic and financial events scheduled in Switzerland for the week of August 18 through August 25, 2026.
Asian Equities Decline Amid Renewed Oil and Bond Yield Inflation Pressures
Asian stock markets retreated as rising oil prices and higher bond yields rekindled investor concerns regarding persistent inflation.
Trump Reports Communication from North Korea's Kim Jong Un
Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has responded to his diplomatic outreach.
Pending Home Sales and Building Permits Head Tuesday Economic Docket
Markets look to upcoming housing data releases on Tuesday for further insight into the trajectory of the broader economy.
China July Retail Sales Growth Slows to 0.6% Amid Weak Demand
China's retail sales growth decelerated to 0.6% in July, drawing analysis from Macquarie analysts on broader economic conditions.
Federal Reserve Policy Stance Remains Accommodative, Paper Suggests
A recent research paper indicates that a specific neutral rate estimate points to an ongoing accommodative stance by the Federal Reserve.
US Midterm Election Betting Surpasses 2024 Congressional Total
Wagering volumes on upcoming US midterm elections have already exceeded the total recorded for the 2024 congressional races, according to recent market data.
Economists See No Near-Term US Rate Hikes Amid Cooling Labor Market
Economists expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate hikes following negative US labor market data and a slight easing of inflation.
US Beef Inflation Stalls Consumer Demand, Posing Political Risk for Trump
Steep price increases for beef across the United States are reducing consumer willingness to pay, presenting a timely challenge for the Trump administration.
Greece plans early repayment of €13 billion in debt by year-end
Athens intends to settle billions in financial obligations ahead of schedule before the end of the year, according to local reports.
Zambian President Hichilema Aims to Leverage Debt Recovery for Growth
Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema is pursuing strategies to convert national debt recovery efforts into broader economic expansion.