Macro
French Bond Sell-Off Revives Euro Crisis Fears as Yields Hit Multi-Year Highs
France's soaring borrowing costs and a proposed budget of €43 billion in cuts and tax hikes have sparked severe market turmoil, driving the Franco-German yield spread to its widest level since 2012.
Swiss analysts anticipate higher inflation and rates while keeping growth outlook positive
A UBS-CFA survey shows a sharp shift in expectations for Swiss inflation and interest rates in September, yet analysts remain upbeat on medium‑term growth and equities.
SNB Holds Rates at 0% Amid Rising Inflation and Global Uncertainty
Swiss National Bank leaves policy rate unchanged at 0% while noting elevated inflation pressures and geopolitical risks.
Euro area sovereign yields rise as French debt risk spikes
French OAT yields hit 4.5% and CDS spreads surge to 2020 highs, while German yields stay near 3.2% after the ECB lifted rates to 2.5%, raising concerns over euro‑zone fiscal health.
Switzerland Raises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.7% as Franc Weakness Helps
SECO lifts 2026 growth projection to 1.7% from 0.9%, citing stronger-than-expected Q2 data and a weaker franc boosting exports.
OECD Raises Switzerland Growth Forecast Sharply for 2026
The OECD now expects Swiss GDP to expand 2.0% in 2026, up from a 1.1% June projection, citing strong domestic demand and a resilient chemical and pharma sector.
Macro calendar: ZEW, ADP, Empire State among key data releases Monday
The German ZEW survey, UK jobs data, French consumer prices, and US ADP and Empire State manufacturing reports round out the Monday schedule.
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank Offer Credit Baskets on French Election Outcome
Banks are marketing AT1 bond baskets and total-return swaps tied to France's April presidential vote, as political risk and a budget deficit above 5% weigh on French credit spreads.
Europe's sovereign yields diverge as France and Germany face higher deficits
Ten‑year bond yields in France and Germany are nearing 2007 highs, while Spain and Italy remain below 2023 peaks, reflecting differing fiscal outlooks across the euro area.
Swiss economic calendar: Aug 25–Sep 1, 2026
Half-year earnings reports from Swiss companies alongside key macroeconomic data releases and industry events next week.
Why the Dollar’s Upcoming PCE Test Could Unsettle the Yield Curve—and What It Means for Euro‑Dollar
As core PCE looms, a retreat in long‑dated yields signals a fragile dollar rally; I argue the data will reshape expectations for Fed policy and the EUR/USD trajectory.
Swiss real estate risk index falls to lowest in three years, Moneypark says
Moneypark's Real Estate Risk Index dropped to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, driven by stronger PMI, low SNB rates and a slowdown in real price growth, though unemployment and migration weakness remain risks.
Germany’s manufacturing PMI hits 51-month high in August flash data
Factory activity in Germany surged to its strongest level since mid-2022, offsetting a fifth straight monthly decline in services as the economy shows uneven momentum.
Eurozone consumer confidence improves unexpectedly in August
Eurozone consumer sentiment rose 0.4 points to -15.5 in August, defying forecasts for a slight decline to -16.0, as EU data shows gradual recovery from March-April lows.
Global economic calendar for Aug 21, 2026: PMI, retail sales and business surveys
Key economic releases include S&P Global PMIs for the euro zone, U.S. and U.K., plus German retail sales and French business sentiment. Borussia Dortmund reports preliminary FY25/26 figures.
Swiss poll shows 12-point lead for rejection of neutrality initiative
Survey by gfs.bern for SRG finds 54% opposed to neutrality proposal, with strongest support from SVP voters. Regional and demographic divides highlighted.
Latin America growth seen slowing to 2.2% in 2026: UN agency
ECLAC revises down 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%, citing a more challenging global backdrop. Region expected to log five straight years of ~2.3% average expansion by 2027.
Why the Swiss Franc Is Poised to Re‑Emerge as the Go‑To Funding Currency
After a rare yen intervention, traders are eyeing the franc’s zero‑rate environment as the next cheap carry, a shift that could reshape EUR/CHF and USD/CHF dynamics.
Brazil's Q2 GDP growth slows to 0.6%, central bank index shows
Modest expansion follows 1.4% growth in Q1 as Brazil's economy shows signs of cooling. Central bank data highlights mixed sectoral performance.
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Continued Weakness in China Retail Sales Growth
Goldman Sachs projects that retail sales growth in China will remain subdued moving forward.
ECB's Lane Discusses Defence Spending and Euro Area Economy
European Central Bank official Philip R. Lane addresses the economic implications of rising defence spending in the euro area.
German firms' U.S. investment falls to three-year low
Outbound direct investment from Germany to the U.S. declined sharply in Q2, driven by economic uncertainty and higher financing costs.
CFD Volume Surge Is Skewing Index Price Discovery – A Warning for All Market Participants
Retail CFD trading has reportedly jumped 40% this summer, but underlying index markets haven’t kept pace, creating a dangerous disconnect that reportedly threatens true price discovery.
AI unlikely to trigger mass job losses, study finds
Research suggests AI will disrupt but not devastate labor markets, with productivity gains offsetting displacement risks.