Un portefeuille axé sur les crises de croissance et les hausse de taux d'intérêt

The coming week in financial markets will be dominated by two key themes: geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the evolution of bond yields. Experts are warning of further uncertainty that will keep investors on edge. A potential compromise between Iran and other players could reopen the Strait of Hormuz for oil transport, which could provide temporary relief for investors – but hope is quickly fading as new negotiations regularly fail. This dynamic is weighing on the markets, particularly in the oil sector, where the Brent crude oil price fell by around 1.5% on Friday, but remained above the $100 mark and showed a slight weekly recovery of around 1%. At the same time, the Swiss Stock Exchange SMI rose in recent trading sessions, but only temporarily reached the 14'000-point mark. The German DAX, on the other hand, remained adrift, with a slight increase of around 0.5% on Friday. Bond markets, by contrast, are experiencing a yield shock: the yields on 10-year US Treasuries exceeded the 5% mark, a value that has not been reached since July 2007. The Fed will continue to examine its monetary policy in order to curb inflation and stabilise the labour markets. The US labour market statistics for September will be released on Friday, which could provide further indications on the Fed’s monetary policy stance. Investors are particularly monitoring how the US is managing the implications of oil price shocks and tariff policies, with the healthcare sector growing particularly strongly. In addition to the labour market, there are data on consumer confidence in the Eurozone and the US, inflation in Germany, and US growth and PCE inflation data. The Swiss market remains less active: Roche will be presenting itself on a pharmacy day in London on Monday, while Sika will be holding its investor day on Thursday. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China remain a key risk factor, although a direct diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely. The debate on AI security will also continue to dominate, weighing on technology stocks. A new approach by Meta could support prices in the short term, but in the long term, uncertainty remains regarding regulatory and security challenges. Experts expect higher fluctuations in the coming weeks, as markets continue to focus on these issues.