Interest Rates
UBS shares hit 18-year high ahead of Swiss capital rules vote
UBS stock rose 4.8% last week to CHF 44.53 as investors awaited a key Senate committee decision on stricter capital requirements. The debate centers on whether the bank must raise $20 billion in hard equity or may use cheaper AT1 bonds.
Euro yields rebound after Schnabel warns on inflation fight
German two-year Bund yield rises to two-week high as ECB policymaker signals further rate hikes may be needed. U.S. Treasury yields also climb ahead of Jackson Hole symposium.
Swiss SMI edges up 0.12% as Roche, Novartis weigh on blue chips
Amrize and Holcim lead gains in the SMI, while Stadler Rail surges 22% on strong half-year results. US PCE inflation ticks up to 3.7%, lifting September Fed hike odds to 40%.
U.S. core PCE inflation holds at 3.3% in July, matching forecasts
Analysts see sticky services inflation as a key risk, with Fed policy focus shifting to Jackson Hole and September FOMC meeting. Consumer spending growth adjusted for inflation flat.
UBS pushes for softer AT1 capital rules amid Swiss bank reform debate
Swiss lawmakers weigh compromise on Additional-Tier-1 debt as UBS-backed study argues for earlier loss-absorption triggers. Next vote set for Aug. 31.
German DAX hits record high after Fed’s Warsh signals rate hike risk
German blue-chip index climbs 0.77% to fresh peak after US central bank chief warns of inflation fight; automakers and chemicals lead gains. Euro Stoxx 50 advances 0.95% as risk appetite persists.
Why the Dollar’s Upcoming PCE Test Could Unsettle the Yield Curve—and What It Means for Euro‑Dollar
As core PCE looms, a retreat in long‑dated yields signals a fragile dollar rally; I argue the data will reshape expectations for Fed policy and the EUR/USD trajectory.
Erste Bank warns of widening corporate credit spreads amid ECB rate hike bets
Austrian lender Erste Group flags rising pressure on corporate credit spreads as energy costs and ECB rate expectations drive bond market volatility. Volkswagen’s stock slump highlights sector strain.
Swiss SMI dips 1% as Nestlé, Novartis, Roche weigh; Gurit surges 10%
Heavyweights drag Switzerland’s blue-chip index lower while Gurit jumps on strong earnings. Investors eye Jackson Hole for Fed clues amid elevated inflation and geopolitical risks.
European stocks edge up as Geberit surges on earnings
DAX flat at 26,126 as chip stocks lag; Geberit jumps 8.4% on Q2 beat; ten-year Bund yields hit 11-year high of 3.25%.
UBS-CFA indicator rises but uncertainty over Swiss economy grows
Swiss economic sentiment improves for second month, yet expectations diverge sharply; U.S. outlook darkens while SNB seen holding rates at zero. Euro seen above 0.90 CHF with 79% probability.
Swiss analyst confidence rises for second straight month: UBS CFA survey
The UBS CFA Indicator climbed 2.1 points to +12.1 in August, marking the second consecutive positive reading since geopolitical tensions flared. Analysts remain split on Swiss growth, while SNB rate expectations stay anchored near zero through mid-2027.
Swiss real estate risk index falls to lowest in three years, Moneypark says
Moneypark's Real Estate Risk Index dropped to 3.5 points in Q2 2026, driven by stronger PMI, low SNB rates and a slowdown in real price growth, though unemployment and migration weakness remain risks.
Rothschild & Co targets CHF 200 bln wealth AUM in Switzerland by 2027-29
Swiss unit posts record first-half net new money inflows as marquee brand and local acquisitions drive growth, despite headwinds from strong franc and weak rates.
Germany's budget deficit hits 3.1% of GDP in H1, breaches EU limit
Deficit surges to €71.3 billion as federal shortfall widens by €29 billion year-on-year, driven by defense spending and subsidies. Rising borrowing costs compound fiscal strain.
US stocks mixed as oil dips, SMI extends losses; ABB falls, Richemont rises
U.S. benchmarks diverge with Dow up 0.1%, S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 down 0.6% as Brent crude drops 1.1% to $93.10. Swiss SMI falls 0.47% with ABB leading decliners and Richemont among top gainers.
Truflation forecasts July core PCE at 0.2% MoM, Fed seen on hold through 2026
U.S. core inflation expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July, while Truflation projects the Federal Reserve will forgo rate hikes for the remainder of the year amid mixed economic signals.
Gold tests double top as bearish momentum builds amid U.S. Treasury actions
Futures briefly topped $4,738 an ounce before pulling back as sanctions announcement looms; technical resistance and Treasury bond-buying program weigh on outlook.
Swiss equities slip as SMI lags; Roche, Novartis weigh; Richemont gains
Swiss benchmark SMI falls 0.25% to 14,423 as Roche and Novartis slide, while Richemont leads gains. US futures point to a softer open after a mixed week.
Moody’s affirms Philippines’ Baa2 rating with stable outlook
Rating agency cites fiscal consolidation efforts and resilient funding access as key strengths, while warning of debt affordability pressures and climate risks.
DAX holds above 26,000 as investors await Nvidia and Fed cues
German blue-chip index steadies near 26,134 points after Friday’s rebound, but faces resistance toward record highs amid key macro and earnings events this week. Semiconductor and auto shares lag while materials gain.
EUR/USD hits 1.1700, highest since May, as dollar weakens
Euro gains ground on improving eurozone data and US Treasury bond buyback expansion, while technical levels suggest limited upside ahead of key US economic releases this week.
UBS sees Swiss rents rising despite record-low reference rate
Swiss mortgage reference rate to stay at 1.25% through 2027, but new rental contracts remain 15% higher than five years ago as supply tightens.
Ray Dalio urges 15% gold allocation as US debt policy sparks dollar, yield fears
Gold hits three-month high above $4,640/oz as Treasury yields fall and dollar weakens on surprise U.S. debt-buyback expansion. Dalio flags debt crisis hedge.