The UBS-CFA indicator rose by 2.1 points to 12.1 in August, marking the second consecutive month in positive territory and the second-highest level since January 2025, according to a UBS release. The increase follows the outbreak of the Middle East conflict at the end of February.
The overall gain masks a widening divergence in expectations. In July, 75% of respondents anticipated unchanged economic conditions in Switzerland over the next six months. By August, that share had fallen to roughly 50%, with both optimistic and pessimistic outlooks rising. About 30% now expect improvement, while 18% foresee deterioration.
Swiss economic conditions are viewed as largely normal, with 91.2% of respondents rating the current situation as such. This marks the eighth consecutive month that the share has exceeded 80%.
The outlook for the U.S. has soured again. After a brief improvement in July, 52.9% of respondents now expect worsening economic conditions over the next six months. Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, the average share of pessimistic views has been 43%.
Monetary policy expectations in Switzerland point to stability. Analysts assign an 86% probability to the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintaining its benchmark rate at 0% at its next assessment. The likelihood of a rate hike is seen at 9%, with a cut at 6%.
For 2026, over 80% of participants expect the SNB to keep rates unchanged, and the first half of 2027 is also seen as likely to hold at 0%. However, risks are shifting toward higher rates, with a cumulative 25% probability of at least one hike by June 2027. Markets are pricing in roughly a 25-basis-point increase over this period.
The euro’s valuation against the Swiss franc has shifted higher. After recent appreciation, 79% of respondents now see a fair euro value above 0.90 CHF, up from 65% in May and 67% in February. This aligns with levels last observed in August 2025.
Equity sentiment in Switzerland is cautiously optimistic, with 48.5% expecting higher prices over the next six months, 36.4% foreseeing stability, and 15.2% anticipating declines. This yields a net balance of 33.3 points. The Euro Stoxx 50 shows an identical positive balance, while the S&P 500 outlook is weaker, with 48% expecting lower prices after its recent 30% rally, resulting in a net balance of 18 points.
Long-term Swiss interest rates are expected to remain stable, with 75% of respondents predicting no change and 21.9% expecting a rise.
Commodity outlooks diverge sharply. Only 19.4% of specialists anticipate higher oil prices over the next six months, while 61.3% expect declines. Gold, by contrast, is seen rising by 54.5% of respondents, with just 12% expecting lower prices, yielding a net balance of over 42 points. Oil’s net balance stands at nearly minus 42 points.
The survey, conducted by UBS and the CFA Society Switzerland between August 13 and 20, included 34 financial analysts.
