Confidence among Swiss analysts and economists regarding the country’s economic outlook improved modestly in August, according to the UBS CFA Indicator published Wednesday.
The gauge rose 2.1 points to +12.1 from July, marking the second consecutive month in positive territory since the escalation of the Middle East conflict. The reading is also the second-highest since January 2025. Despite the uptick, UBS warned that risks to the outlook remain elevated.
The indicator, compiled monthly in partnership with CFA Society Switzerland, is based on a survey of 34 experts conducted between August 13 and 20. While the overall index edged higher, the dispersion of views among respondents increased. The share of analysts expecting stable economic conditions over the next six months fell to roughly 50% from about three-quarters previously. Optimistic projections rose to around 30%, while pessimistic outlooks climbed to approximately 18%.
Sentiment toward the U.S. economy, which had shown signs of improvement, reversed course in August. A majority of 52.9% of respondents now expect conditions to deteriorate over the next six months, up from an average of 43% since January 2025, when the current administration took office.
On monetary policy, 86% of surveyed participants do not anticipate a Swiss National Bank rate change at the September meeting. More than 80% of respondents expect the SNB to maintain its benchmark rate at 0% through year-end and likely into the first half of 2027. While the probability of a rate hike next year is seen as modest, risks are tilted toward tightening rather than easing.
The survey also reflected shifting views on the EUR/CHF exchange rate, with participants assigning a higher probability that the fair value exceeds 0.90 amid the euro’s recent appreciation against the franc.
