Moneypark, the Swiss mortgage‑service provider, reported that its Real Estate Risk Index (RERI) fell to 3.5 points in the second quarter of 2026, down from 3.7 points in the first quarter. The decline marks the first drop in the index since the third quarter of 2023, after a period of steady increases.
The improvement is attributed to a better economic outlook, a modest easing of real price pressure on owner‑occupied homes and the persistently low interest‑rate environment. The Swiss Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to an average of 56 in Q2, up from 52 in Q1 and well above the 50‑point growth threshold, indicating a noticeable pickup in industrial sentiment.
Labour market conditions, however, remain a downside risk. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 3.1% in the quarter, from 3.0% in Q1 and 2.8% a year earlier. Moneypark warned that higher unemployment could curb household affordability and dampen demand for housing.
Owner‑occupied home price growth continued to outpace inflation, but the gap narrowed. In Q2, price appreciation was 3.8 percentage points above the inflation rate, compared with 4.2 points in Q1 and 5.0 points a year earlier. The debt‑to‑wealth ratio for new mortgages stayed stable at roughly 1.5 times available wealth.
Supply constraints persisted, with limited housing inventory and strong buyer willingness preventing a broad price correction. The Swiss National Bank’s policy rate remained at 0% throughout the quarter, supporting mortgage demand. At the same time, the yield curve flattened modestly; the spread between ten‑year and two‑year swap rates fell to about 0.45 percentage points.
Mortgage pricing also showed divergence. The spread between the cheapest and most expensive ten‑year fixed‑rate mortgage offers widened to approximately 0.96 percentage points, a gap that can translate into several thousand Swiss francs in annual costs for borrowers.
Population inflows slowed sharply. The rolling twelve‑month net migration balance of permanent foreign residents dropped from roughly 83,400 at the end of 2024 to about 69,900 in May 2026, a 16.2% decline. Moneypark noted that while the absolute demand for housing from migrants remains significant, it is becoming more concentrated: 86% of projected population growth is expected to occur in just eleven cantons.
Looking ahead, Moneypark forecasts the RERI to remain flat or edge slightly lower in the coming quarters, supported by the better macro sentiment, easing real price pressure and low rates. Nevertheless, the firm cautions that a rapid relaxation is unlikely. Persistent unemployment, still‑dynamic house prices, pronounced mortgage‑provider spreads and the uncertain impact of weaker migration and rising construction activity are expected to keep the market selective. Location, property quality and financing structure are set to gain importance as the Swiss real‑estate sector stays robust but more discerning.
