Interest Rates
USD/JPY stuck in 158-159.78 range as US curve tensions persist
Yield differentials with Japan and Treasury’s efforts to cap long-end borrowing costs keep the dollar-yen pair range-bound. Fed’s Warsh faces a policy dilemma ahead of Jackson Hole.
DAX seen lower as investors eye Nvidia earnings, Iran sanctions and Jackson Hole
German blue-chip index expected to slip 0.2% at open as geopolitical risks and key U.S. events weigh on sentiment. Support at 26,000 and 21-day line in focus.
Turkey’s central bank to restart one-week repo auctions
The Turkish central bank will resume weekly repo operations at its 37% policy rate, ending a suspension tied to inflation risks from regional conflict. Governor Fatih Karahan said conditions had improved.
Dollar outlook hinges on UST buybacks and Fed credibility, BofA says
Stronger U.S. Treasury buybacks and policy credibility concerns weigh on the greenback, with gold and franc outperforming as investors reassess dollar fundamentals.
Pound seen rising as yield gap with euro widens, UBS forecasts
UBS expects sterling to strengthen against the euro to 0.85 by late 2027, citing a 1.5 percentage point yield advantage and fading risk premiums. ECB’s final hike in September may reinforce the trend.
Japan PM links inflation, bond yields to economic growth
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi says rising prices and bond yields reflect Japan’s expanding economy, while vowing to prioritize wage growth and fiscal stability.
Euro zone wage growth slows in Q2, ECB data shows
Negotiated wages rose 2.44% in the three months to June, down from 2.56% in Q1, according to European Central Bank figures released Friday.
30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, outpacing dividend stocks by 2.2 points
The gap between the 30-year Treasury yield and dividend stock yields has widened to 2.2 percentage points, the widest since 2007. History suggests divergent paths ahead for bonds and equities.
BofA flags stable CTA Treasury shorts, rising EUR/USD short-cover risk
Bank of America notes U.S. Treasury futures positioning remains heavily short with limited near-term cover risk, while slower-moving trend followers face pressure to reduce stretched EUR/USD short bets as the dollar weakens.
U.S. economic data due Monday: Chicago Fed index, Treasury bill auctions
Chicago Fed activity gauge and $50 billion in 3- and 6-month Treasury bill sales headline Monday’s U.S. data slate. Previous readings show modest contraction and steady yields.
SNB’s Tschudin says negative rates remain an option in Switzerland
Swiss National Bank director Petra Tschudin cites anchored inflation expectations and a stable CPI basket as key factors behind record-low inflation. The central bank retains all policy tools, including sub-zero rates, to meet its 0-2% inflation target.
U.S. national debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
Total public debt reaches $40.047 trillion as borrowing accelerates under Trump and Biden administrations amid rising deficits and Treasury bond yields.
Swiss franc overtakes yen in carry trade as SNB cheers shift
The Swiss franc has become the preferred funding currency for new carry trades, displacing the yen as global investors seek lower volatility and stable yields. The shift benefits the SNB and Swiss exporters amid a fragile market backdrop.
German DAX falls below 26,000 points amid energy and rate pressures
The German blue-chip index slipped 0.65% to 25,921 points, extending losses as rising oil prices and bond yields weighed on sentiment. The Euro Stoxx 50 and MDax also declined.
U.S. national debt tops $40 trillion as servicing costs near $1.4 trillion
Crossing the $40 trillion mark, the U.S. faces rising debt servicing expenses and elevated Treasury yields, with projections pointing to $50 trillion by 2029. Market intervention has done little to curb structural pressures.
Bank of America warns of market fallout if U.S. bond plan fails
BofA strategist Hartnett sees dollar weakness and increased short bets on risk assets if 30-year Treasury yields stay above 5%. S&P 500 drops 1.9% amid bond-market volatility.
BOJ’s July 2027 meeting timing fuels speculation on rate hike timing
The Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting, scheduled for July 21-22, 2027, coincides with the expiration of two hawkish board members’ terms, raising questions about the central bank’s normalization strategy.
Gold rises as Trump escalates economic pressure on Iran
U.S. sanctions threat against Iran lifts gold, oil prices; Fed rate-hike odds remain low ahead of Jackson Hole. Analysis flags technical resistance and profit-taking risks.
U.S. Treasury's Bessent to outline Iran sanctions plan on Monday
Secretary Scott Bessent will detail planned measures against Iran and Treasury bond buybacks at a press conference. Bond yields surged before partially reversing after Wednesday's support announcement.
U.S. debt tops $40 trillion as Fed minutes, Iran tensions lift markets
Fed minutes show dissent on rates as U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion; Brent crude rises on geopolitical risks while Walmart's ad unit growth supports retail shares.
German DAX slips 0.34% in early trade as oil, yields weigh
European stocks opened lower Thursday as rising oil prices and bond yields pressured the DAX, while gains in Continental and Sartorius were offset by losses in Brenntag and Ströer.
European stocks hit August lows as bond yields surge, central banks stay hawkish
Stoxx Europe 600 extends losing streak to seven sessions amid rising long-term yields and hawkish central bank signals. Novonesis leads gains after strong earnings.
German DAX seen little changed as energy costs, yields weigh
Outlook for Frankfurt stocks points to muted trading as higher oil prices and rising bond yields offset regional tech rebounds. Sartorius gains on UBS upgrade.
Analysis: US Treasury buybacks seen supporting softer dollar, risk appetite
Analysts argue the latest US Treasury intervention signals concern over high bond yields rather than a policy credibility crisis, potentially aiding high-beta and emerging market currencies.