Macro

Japan manufacturing PMI rises to 55.1 as orders expand at fastest pace since 2018
Flash survey shows factory activity accelerating for a second straight month, led by semiconductor and AI-linked demand. Composite index at eight-month high.

U.S. manufacturing, services PMI due Friday alongside rig count data
S&P Global’s August 22 releases will show whether the manufacturing and services sectors maintained growth momentum. Baker Hughes rig counts follow at noon ET.

U.S. debt tops $40 trillion as Fed minutes, Iran tensions lift markets
Fed minutes show dissent on rates as U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion; Brent crude rises on geopolitical risks while Walmart's ad unit growth supports retail shares.

Poland's corporate wages rise 6.8% in July, outpace forecasts
Average corporate wages in Poland increased 6.8% year-on-year to 9,509.02 zlotys, exceeding expectations, while employment fell 0.8% amid mixed labor market signals.

Euro zone business activity growth accelerates to 10-month high in August
Composite PMI rises to 52.1, led by manufacturing rebound and export recovery. Services growth steady at 51.7 as inflation pressures ease.

Eurozone PMI rises to nine-month high on manufacturing rebound
Flash eurozone composite PMI climbs to 52.1 in August, led by a 54-month high in manufacturing output, while services growth remains subdued. GDP seen expanding 0.3% in Q3.

U.S. services PMI jumps to 56.8, far above forecasts
Markit’s latest survey shows the U.S. service sector expanded at the fastest pace since early 2024, outpacing expectations as business activity and demand strengthened.

UK consumer confidence rises to highest since Iran conflict start, survey shows
Consumer sentiment improves for third straight month, offering a boost to Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government. Brent crude edges higher on geopolitical tensions.

Global economic calendar: August 20, 2026 — earnings, inflation and central bank updates
AEGON, Alibaba and Walmart among companies reporting quarterly results; Germany releases producer prices and trade data alongside Sweden’s Riksbank rate decision.

France private sector activity contracts faster in August
The latest data indicates a sharper decline in France's private sector activity for August.

Germany’s August PMI shows manufacturing rebound, services slowdown
Flash PMI data points to a two-month low for the composite index at 51.0, with manufacturing output surging to a 51-month high of 54.1, while services activity contracted for a fifth straight month.

UK posts unexpected budget deficit in July as spending rises
Public sector net borrowing exceeded forecasts for July amid higher-than-anticipated government spending.

India's private sector growth accelerates in August as services rebound
HSBC's composite PMI rose to 54.6, driven by a pickup in services activity, while manufacturing growth slowed to a five-year low. Employment gains remained concentrated in services, with factory hiring declining.

Swiss poll shows 12-point lead for rejection of neutrality initiative
Survey by gfs.bern for SRG finds 54% opposed to neutrality proposal, with strongest support from SVP voters. Regional and demographic divides highlighted.

Japan's July exports rise 23.2% y/y, trade deficit widens to $4.01bn
Exports grew for an 11th straight month, outpacing forecasts, while imports surged 27.8% and the trade gap expanded to 634.5 billion yen.

Swiss borrowers overpay by CHF 18,000/year on long-term mortgages
Households refinancing into decade-long fixed-rate loans during 2023’s brief high-rate window now face annual overpayments of up to CHF 18,000 versus Saron-linked or short-term options, data shows.

U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion for first time
Total public debt hits $40.047 trillion as Treasury ramps up long-dated bond buybacks to ease yields amid rising term premiums.

U.S. jobless claims and Philly Fed index due Thursday
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge and weekly unemployment figures are set for release at 7:30 a.m. ET, with forecasts pointing to modest changes in labor and business conditions.

Latin America growth seen slowing to 2.2% in 2026: UN agency
ECLAC revises down 2026 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%, citing a more challenging global backdrop. Region expected to log five straight years of ~2.3% average expansion by 2027.

Euro zone current account surplus widens to €35.1 bln in June
Primary income gains lift the bloc’s surplus to the highest since March, while the 12-month surplus narrows to 1.7% of GDP.

Extreme weather costs Europe billions as droughts and heatwaves strain economies
Record temperatures and low water levels disrupt shipping, power generation and agriculture, with Allianz estimating a 0.3 percentage point hit to euro zone GDP this year. Southern Europe faces prolonged growth losses and fiscal strain.

Japan's wholesale inflation spikes in July, raising rate‑hike odds
July wholesale price inflation in Japan surged, boosting expectations that the Bank of Japan may move toward a rate increase.

India’s infrastructure output growth slows to 5.4% in July
India’s infrastructure output rose 5.4% year-on-year in July, down from 6% in June, as iron ore and electricity production moderated. The expansion reflects a revised series with 2022-23 as the base year.

IMF hails Lebanon bank law changes as ‘major step’ amid crisis
Parliament passes amendments to bank resolution framework, meeting 99% of IMF demands, but president’s approval and Constitutional Council review still pending.

