A potential easing of U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminum could provide a financial boost to major producers, according to Deutsche Bank. Analysts estimate that a reduction in tariffs from 50% to 25% could increase earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by up to 3% for leading firms such as Rio Tinto Group and Alcoa Corporation.
The tariff framework, which applies to Canadian aluminum imports exceeding quota limits, has weighed on North American aluminum markets. Canada recently extended steel and aluminum tariff quotas for non-CUSMA nations until June 2027, maintaining penalties on imports above agreed thresholds. Meanwhile, Ottawa continues negotiations to renew the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) to secure more stable cross-border trade conditions for metals.
Alcoa Corporation, which expects 15.6% revenue growth next year, saw its shares decline 4% following reports that the U.S. may scale back tariffs. The company’s stock closed at $49.72, down $1.56, or 3.04%, on the news. Rio Tinto Group, forecasting 8.3% revenue growth for the coming year, has also positioned itself to benefit from improved trade dynamics. The miner is advancing gallium extraction technology in Quebec with government funding support.
Aluminum futures in India, as tracked by the Metal Bulletin Aluminum North America (MAN) contract, were last quoted at ₹238.4, up 17.1% over the past year but down 5.88% year-to-date. The contract’s 52-week range spans ₹237 to ₹239.35, reflecting limited price volatility amid fluctuating trade policy signals.
Peer performance data for the three major North American producers shows divergent market responses. Teck Resources Limited leads with a 116.6% one-year return, supported by a 46.9% EBITDA margin and debt-to-equity ratio of 35.5%. Rio Tinto Group follows with an 81.0% one-year return, a 35.2% EBITDA margin, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 38.2%. Alcoa Corporation trails with a 61.8% one-year return, a 15.1% EBITDA margin, and a higher debt-to-equity ratio of 45.0%.
