Corn and wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) climbed to multi-year highs on Wednesday, driven by deteriorating U.S. crop conditions and disruptions to Black Sea grain trade.
CBOT corn futures rose 0.8% to $5.27 3/4 per bushel by 1130 GMT, after earlier touching $5.30—a level last seen in July 2023. Wheat futures advanced 1.5% to $713.50 per bushel, reaching $7.18, its highest since May 2024. Soybean prices remained flat as gains in corn were offset by lower soyoil prices following a decline in crude oil.
U.S. corn crop conditions have deteriorated more sharply than anticipated, according to a recent USDA estimate. A widely watched Midwest field tour last week projected this year’s U.S. corn crop to fall well below USDA forecasts, reinforcing supply concerns. Meanwhile, grain loadings at Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports have "virtually stopped" amid escalating tit-for-tat attacks, further tightening global grain supply.
In Argentina, a major corn exporter, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange noted that the El Niño weather phenomenon could bring much-needed moisture to planted areas. However, pest risks and elevated production costs may limit the benefit to farmers’ planting plans. The weather pattern is expected to provide some supply relief, though its impact remains uncertain.
Analysts at Argus highlighted the combined effect of adverse weather, geopolitical trade disruptions, and weaker-than-expected crop conditions as key drivers behind the recent price surge in corn and wheat markets.
