France’s government is preparing to set a 2027 deficit target in the coming weeks as it confronts weak economic growth, emergency spending tied to heatwaves, and an energy crisis that has already pushed the deficit off course.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu leads a minority administration that must submit a budget bill to parliament by October 6. With the Fifth Republic’s constitutional tools under strain, the government has relied on Article 49.3 to enact budgets without a vote since a 2024 snap election produced a hung parliament. Opposition parties can respond with no-confidence motions, forcing concessions to avoid collapse.
If no budget is approved by year-end and Article 49.3 is not invoked, officials could pass a short emergency law to roll over the 2026 budget until after the presidential election scheduled for April-May 2027. A finance ministry report warned this scenario would cause "unprecedented budget paralysis," freezing planned increases in defense spending and investment while welfare costs continue to rise. The report also projected a potential widening of the deficit by at least half a percentage point, a move that could erode investor confidence and lift borrowing costs.
A more extreme option—passing the budget by ordinance—would bypass parliament entirely. Legal experts describe this as an unprecedented "nuclear option" for the Fifth Republic, likely to trigger a no-confidence vote. Unlike Article 49.3, the fall of the government would not automatically invalidate a budget enacted via ordinance, though political turmoil would likely follow.
Work on the 2028 budget is already scheduled to begin even as the 2027 budget remains unresolved, underscoring the broader fiscal uncertainty facing France in the run-up to next year’s election.
