BTG Pactual initiated coverage of Unipar Carbocloro SA with a neutral rating, setting a price target of R$68 per share by the end of 2027, implying a 17% upside from Tuesday’s closing price of R$58.12.
The firm acknowledged Unipar’s operational improvements but cautioned that the stock is already trading at a premium valuation. At the time of the report, shares were down 3.6% at R$56.02 in intraday trading. BTG Pactual analysts Rodrigo Almeida and Gustavo Cunha described Unipar as a "good company, but the stock is already priced in," adding that they "see a better company than a few years ago, but not yet an attractive enough stock at the current valuation."
Unipar’s chlor-alkali segment generated approximately R$280 million in EBITDA during the second quarter, while its PVC business contributed R$122 million. The company has invested heavily in plant modernization, including R$1 billion for converting the Cubatão facility to membrane technology and R$234 million at the Camaçari plant. These expenditures have shifted Unipar’s balance sheet from a net cash position of R$400 million at the end of 2020 to a net debt of R$2.3 billion in Q2.
Analysts noted that PVC’s share of EBITDA has declined from about 77% in 2021 to a projected 26% by 2026, reflecting margin compression in the segment. Chlor-alkali EBITDA margins are estimated between 40% and 50%. For 2027, BTG Pactual projects a 6% free cash flow yield and 5% dividend yield, down from historical averages of 13% and 10%, respectively.
The stock is trading at 7.2 times estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA, a 56% premium to its historical average of 4.6 times. Analysts also modeled an alternative exchange rate scenario of R$5.50 per dollar, which would lift 2027 EBITDA to R$1.48 billion from the base case of R$1.20 billion.
