Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa advanced 0.24% to 172,313 on Monday, paring earlier gains as U.S. technology stocks pulled back ahead of key economic data and Federal Reserve President Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.
The index was led by gains in Vale, which rose 0.41% to 77.45 reais, offsetting declines in Braskem, which fell 3.38% after the petrochemical giant sought an extrajudicial recovery process to renegotiate debt exceeding $10 billion. Petrobras declined 0.71% to 41.81 reais, while Itaú Unibanco and Ultrapar were among the laggards.
The dollar traded near R$5.1457, down 0.13%, consolidating within a short-term range of R$5.05 to R$5.25 as investors awaited U.S. personal consumption expenditures data and the Fed’s annual symposium in Wyoming. The currency’s movement reflected a broader pause in emerging-market currencies ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy signals.
Global markets showed mixed signals. Brent crude futures fell 2.93% to $87.82 per barrel, extending declines from Friday’s close at $92.17, as traders weighed supply dynamics and geopolitical risks. Spot gold edged 0.35% higher to $4,661.40 per troy ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.58% to $4,670.56. Bitcoin rose above $80,000, reaching a three-month high, with futures trading at $79,110.
In economic projections released Monday, Brazil’s Focus Report trimmed 2026 GDP growth estimates to 1.95% from 1.98%, while maintaining inflation and Selic rate forecasts at 5.02% and 13.75%, respectively. The report also highlighted concerns over household debt amid tighter credit conditions, a point reiterated by Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo.
Political developments in Brazil added to market caution. A BTG/Nexus poll showed President Lula leading the first-round presidential race with 41%, while Flávio Bolsonaro held 37%, indicating a technical tie in a potential runoff. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury announced fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and maritime sectors, escalating financial pressure on the Islamic Republic.
Investors also monitored U.S. economic indicators, including July building permits, the S&P/CS home price index, and the CB consumer confidence survey, all due before the Fed’s Jackson Hole event. Treasury yields remained under pressure, tempering equity gains despite recent relief in fixed-income markets.
