Bitcoin is deviating from a pattern typical of bear markets as an onchain profitability metric records its longest bullish stretch of 2026.
Data from CryptoQuant shows the spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, has remained above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19. The metric currently stands at 1.002. SOPR measures whether coins moving onchain are transacted at a higher or lower price than in the previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate that coins are generally being moved in profit, which is commonly read as bullish market momentum. The current streak has lasted three weeks, the longest period of bullish SOPR readings in 2026 so far.
Analysts say the signal may reflect a shift in market structure. SOPR can be split by wallet cohort to separate profitability among newer and older investors. Checkonchain said short-term holder SOPR readings, covering wallets holding a UTXO without selling for up to six months, resemble early bull-market recoveries. The firm noted that in bear markets, rallies back into profit are often sold, while in bull markets, brief dips below breakeven can become buying opportunities.
Despite the improved onchain signal, some analysts remain cautious. Bitcoin has held a local range around $80,000 while the SOPR streak continues, but the asset could still print new macro lows in this cycle, according to ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell. In a Sept. 4 interview with CryptoQuant, Puell, creator of the Puell multiple indicator, said more evidence was needed before concluding that the next bear-market floor has been set.
Asked how Bitcoin's 25% August rally might develop into the fourth quarter, Puell said further upside was the less likely outcome. "In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk," he said.
Puell identified sustained SOPR strength as a key condition for changing his long-term bias. He said the metric needs to remain above 1 for an extended period, with investors consistently realizing profits without Bitcoin returning to a new low. He also said the asset must begin forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, a pattern that Cointelegraph reported is still absent on weekly time frames.
The debate comes after CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said in late August that the bear market was already over, citing the latest readings from the firm's proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator.
