Macro

Brazil's 2027 budget projects primary surplus of 0.1% of GDP
Draft budget targets a 0.1% primary surplus next year, below the 0.5% target but within the allowed tolerance range. Minister Moretti confirmed the projection in an interview.

U.S. ISM manufacturing index falls to 54.6 in August as new orders weaken
U.S. factory activity slowed more than expected last month, with the ISM index dropping to 54.6 from 55.6 in July. New orders and employment both declined, while prices paid remained steady.

U.S. job openings fall short of forecasts in July JOLTS report
U.S. job openings declined to 7.27 million in July, below the 7.33 million expected and down from a revised 7.18 million in June, signaling a cooling labor market.

U.S. factory activity slows in August as input costs remain elevated
ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, while input prices held at 71.1, signaling persistent inflation pressures despite easing demand.

U.S. job openings rise in July as June data revised lower
Openings increased by 89,000 to 7.27 million, while June figures were cut to 7.18 million. Manufacturing sector saw a 79,000 rise in unfilled positions.

G20 backs measures to curb trade surplus distortions, excluding China
Ministers agree to eliminate non-market policies worsening imbalances, while China opposes key clauses. Meeting held in Asheville, North Carolina.

Euro zone lending growth accelerates in July, ECB data shows
Corporate loan growth rose to 4.4% annually while household lending increased to 3.1%, signaling modest expansion in credit demand after the ECB's June rate hike.

UK entry-level jobs plummet 36% as AI, automation reshape labor market
Survey finds nearly half of large UK firms cut entry roles last year, citing AI and automation; youth unemployment hits decade high. Government warned of 'lost generation' risk.

India report warns higher food inflation may curb non‑food spending
The government's August monthly economic report says rising food prices could limit household expenditure on discretionary items, while noting uncertainty from an intensifying El Niño and monitoring bond‑market risks.

Brazil's gross debt rises to 82.5% of GDP in July
Gross public debt increased to 82.5% of GDP in July from 81.9% in June, exceeding market expectations. Primary surplus fell short of forecasts amid state deficits.

Greece's unemployment falls to 7.9% in July, ELSTAT reports
ELSTAT said the seasonally adjusted jobless rate dropped to 7.9% in July from 8.1% in June, with 376,508 people unemployed. Female unemployment stood at 10.4%, male at 5.9%.

Czech government targets 2027 deficit of 389 billion crowns
Finance Minister Alena Schillerova said the 2027 central government budget will run a 389 billion‑crown deficit, up from 310 billion crowns planned for this year, while meeting NATO's 2% defence spending floor.

India's April-July fiscal deficit narrows to $47.8 billion
Shortfall at 4.55 trillion rupees, or 26.8% of annual target, as revenue rises and spending increases. Deficit target remains 4.3% of GDP for FY27.

India's April-July fiscal deficit at 26.8% of FY27 target
Deficit widens to 4.55 trillion rupees in the first four months of the fiscal year, driven by higher capital spending. Target for full year remains 4.3% of GDP.

U.S. Treasury urges G20 to rethink ties with China, escalate pressure on Iran
Finance chief Scott Bessent calls for G20 review of China’s $1.2 trillion trade surplus and $73.9 billion U.S. deficit, as Washington steps up tariffs and prepares talks with Beijing. New Iran sanctions to target banks weekly.

Qatar’s economy contracts 7% in first quarter amid energy decline
The contraction marks the first decline in over a decade as energy sector output falls.

Brazil runoff poll shows Lula, Bolsonaro in technical tie
Latest survey puts President Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45% ahead of October election, within margin of error for second-round runoff.

Polymarket prepares for misconduct scrutiny ahead of US midterms
The intelligence chief highlights potential integrity risks for prediction markets as the US midterm elections approach.

China's manufacturing PMI edges up but services slump signals uneven recovery
Official factory activity improved slightly in August, yet a persistent decline in services underscores weak domestic demand and a patchy rebound in the world's second-largest economy.

Canada's Q2 current account surplus surges to record C$8.84 billion
Surplus of C$8.84 billion far exceeds economist forecasts of C$3.9 billion, driven by energy exports amid elevated oil prices. Foreign bond holdings hit a record C$80.8 billion.

IMF chief says global economy holding up to energy shock, flags fiscal risks
Kristalina Georgieva warns of a 'tug of war' between energy supply disruptions and AI-driven growth, as fiscal pressures mount ahead of G20 talks.

IMF warns global economy faces persistent energy risks amid fiscal strains
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says the world economy has weathered recent energy disruptions better than expected, but warns of lingering inflation risks and rising fiscal pressures ahead of the G20 meeting.

IMF says global economy weathered Iran-linked energy shock better than feared
Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cites drawdowns in oil and gas reserves, AI-driven growth and lower energy demand as key buffers against the Strait of Hormuz closure. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

U.S. economic data dump Wednesday: GDP, durable goods and oil inventories in focus
GDP growth, durable goods orders and EIA crude stockpiles headline a busy U.S. data calendar. Markets await signals on inflation and economic momentum.

