A slate of U.S. economic indicators due Wednesday will provide fresh insight into growth, inflation and energy markets, with traders parsing figures from gross domestic product to crude inventories.
GDP data for the second quarter is expected to show a slowdown to 1.5% annualized growth from 2.1% previously, according to the Atlanta and Dallas Federal Reserve districts. The Commerce Department’s release at 7:30 a.m. ET will also include the GDP Price Index, forecast to rise to 6.3% from 3.6%, and real consumer spending, projected at 3.2% versus 0.5%.
Durable goods orders are anticipated to increase 0.4% month-over-month, up slightly from a 0.3% gain in June, while core orders excluding transportation are seen rising 0.5% after a 0.6% advance. Personal income is expected to rise 0.2%, matching the prior month’s increase, and personal spending is forecast at 0.1% following a 0.3% gain.
Inflation gauges embedded in the report include the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, projected to climb 0.2% month-over-month after a 0.1% rise, and the annual PCE gauge, seen steady at 3.3% after a 4.4% print. The broader annual PCE measure is expected to edge up to 5.1% from 4.6%.
Energy markets will watch the Energy Information Administration’s weekly crude oil inventory report at 9:30 a.m. ET, with analysts expecting a 1.9 million-barrel build following a 4.405 million-barrel increase last week. Gasoline inventories are projected to fall 1.0 million barrels after a 0.688 million-barrel rise, while distillate stocks are seen declining 1.7 million barrels versus a 1.530 million-barrel drop. Cushing, Oklahoma inventories are expected to decline 1.314 million barrels.
Additional releases include the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, holding steady at 4.0%, and the Dallas Fed’s PCE inflation measure at 1.40%. Mortgage market data from the Mortgage Bankers Association is due at 6 a.m. ET, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.77% and the purchase index at 154.8. A $36 billion 5-year Treasury note auction concludes at noon ET with a prior yield of 4.408%.
Fed officials, including Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, have signaled data dependency as the central bank assesses the path of policy amid evolving inflation and growth dynamics.
