A climate finance professor at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management said Wall Street misinterpreted the market implications of the latest U.S. solar tariff policy, noting that shares of both beneficiaries and exposed companies rose after the announcement.
Matt Roling, the expert, highlighted that investors are focusing narrowly on which firms stand to gain from the tariffs while overlooking the fact that some of the most vulnerable companies also saw stock increases. He emphasized that the policy’s effects are more nuanced than the initial market reaction suggests.
First Solar emerged as a clear beneficiary, according to Roling, because its panels are manufactured using cadmium telluride rather than silicon, exempting it from penalties targeting silicon-based supply chains. The company’s production method shields it from tariffs on imported silicon components, a structural advantage that has supported its market position.
Corning, which co-owns Hemlock Semiconductor—one of only two U.S.-based polysilicon manufacturers—was identified as another quiet winner. Roling noted that while the benefit is diluted in Corning’s financials due to its joint venture structure, the company still stands to gain from reduced reliance on foreign silicon supplies. The muted share reaction reflects the indirect nature of the gains, he added.
Sunrun, a residential solar installer, saw its shares rise despite being exposed to higher panel costs under the new tariffs. Roling attributed the rally to misplaced optimism, stating that the company purchases panels rather than producing them, meaning the policy effectively taxes its core operations. “They buy solar panels; they don’t make them. The market cheered for a policy that taxes them,” he said.
Canadian Solar, which sources heavily from China-linked supply chains, also experienced a stock increase, surprising Roling. He cautioned that the move may reflect one-time tariff refunds or the influence of its Shanghai-listed subsidiary rather than a fundamental shift in its business model. Roling expressed skepticism about the sustainability of the rally, given the company’s exposure to tariff risks.
SolarEdge and Enphase, which manufacture inverters—a component outside the polysilicon supply chain—saw initial gains that Roling dismissed as mere sector beta rather than a reaction to the policy specifics. “The moves were sector beta, not a reaction to anything in the actual policy,” he said, noting that their business models are not directly tied to the tariff’s core provisions.
