Wall Street’s initial reaction to the U.S. solar tariffs overstated the benefits for some companies and overlooked the costs for others, according to Matt Roling, a climate finance expert and professor at Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management.
First Solar was the most direct beneficiary, Roling said, as the tariffs target silicon-based supply chains while First Solar manufactures panels using cadmium telluride. This exemption means competitors must prove the origin of their polysilicon or face penalties, while First Solar faces no such constraints. Corning was identified as another structural winner due to its 50% stake in Hemlock Semiconductor, one of only two U.S.-based polysilicon producers. However, the financial benefit is diluted through Corning’s joint venture accounting, muting its immediate stock reaction.
Other companies saw gains that did not align with their exposure. Sunrun, a solar installer, rallied despite the tariffs increasing its panel costs. Roling attributed this to the market’s focus on headline winners rather than the policy’s direct impact. "They buy solar panels; they don’t make them," he said. "The market cheered for a policy that taxes them."
Canadian Solar, which relies heavily on Chinese-linked sourcing, also saw a rise, though Roling cautioned this reflected its Shanghai-listed subsidiary and a one-time tariff refund rather than fundamental strength. In contrast, inverter makers SolarEdge and Enphase moved in line with broader sector trends, not as a reaction to the policy itself, as their products fall outside the polysilicon supply chain.
Roling highlighted the disconnect between market sentiment and policy reality. "Everyone’s talking about which solar company won from the tariffs," he said. "Nobody’s talking about the fact that the losers’ stocks went up too."
