The S&P 500 is expected to finish 2026 at 7,900, according to a Reuters poll of 46 strategists, analysts and portfolio managers conducted between August 12 and 25. The median target represents a 2.9% increase from Tuesday’s close of 7,677.28, following a 12% year-to-date gain in 2026.
The latest projection marks a modest upgrade from the prior Reuters poll in May, which had set a 7,620 year-end target for 2026. Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s Sameer Samana characterized the current environment as an "investment boom," adding that the momentum is likely to persist into 2027 despite near-term election-related volatility. BofA Securities, however, maintained a more conservative outlook with a year-end 2026 target of 7,100.
Earnings growth is cited as a primary driver of optimism. S&P 500 companies are on track for a 33.5% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings, the highest since 2021, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data. The index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio stood at 20.2 on Friday, down from approximately 22 at the end of 2025, reflecting improved earnings visibility.
Geopolitical tensions have eased since the late-February escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which had briefly pushed oil prices higher. While active hostilities have subsided, peace negotiations remain stalled and the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose logistical risks. The subsequent decline in oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns and supported risk sentiment on Wall Street.
The upcoming early November U.S. midterm elections add a layer of uncertainty, with outcomes in federal, state and local contests potentially reshaping Congress. Analysts note that the balance of power in Washington could influence policy direction, though the immediate market impact is expected to be limited to short-term volatility around the vote.
The poll’s projections coincide with the conclusion of second-quarter earnings season, highlighted by chipmaker Nvidia’s results. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, a speech that will be closely monitored for signals on monetary policy amid shifting economic conditions.
