Arabica coffee futures surged 5.9% to $3.42 per pound on Monday, the highest settlement since January, as certified inventories at the Intercontinental Exchange approached a 26-year low.
The front-month contract reached $3.78 per pound during the session, reflecting tight near-term supply conditions. Certified ICE arabica stocks have steadily declined, pressuring prices despite expectations of a market surplus in the 2026/27 season. A Reuters survey projects arabica prices to fall 8.8% by year-end, citing a projected surplus increase from 1.7 million to 8.2 million bags.
Robusta coffee futures rose 5.1% to $3,802 per ton, extending gains from the prior week. Raw sugar, meanwhile, edged up 0.2% to 17.65 cents per pound, after touching a three-week high of 18.26 cents on Thursday. The advance followed India’s decision to allow duty-free imports of 1 million metric tons of raw sugar, responding to record domestic prices. Admis noted that raw sugar futures had rallied 27% over three weeks.
White sugar futures declined 2.8% to $535.90 per ton, while sugar beet yield forecasts for the European Union were revised down 11% year-over-year to 72.2 tons per hectare for 2026, according to Mars’ monitoring service.
Cocoa markets showed mixed signals. London cocoa fell 0.6% to £4,298 per ton, while New York cocoa declined 1.5% to $5,945 per ton. Analysts at StoneX highlighted uncertainty surrounding African production for the 2026/27 crop, noting that Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire advanced their harvest by one month, potentially reducing output by about 10% compared with the previous cycle.
