Shares of Alumis Inc. tumbled nearly 60% last week after the biotech company disclosed that its oral TYK2 inhibitor, envudeucitinib, failed a Phase IIb trial in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), erasing roughly $200 million in market value.
Guggenheim Securities downgraded Alumis to Neutral from Buy and removed its prior price target of $34, citing regulatory uncertainty over the clinical development path for lupus. The firm maintained a positive outlook for envudeucitinib in plaque psoriasis, describing it as a best-in-class oral TYK2 inhibitor in that indication.
The Phase IIb study enrolled 408 patients and did not meet its primary or secondary endpoints in the general population. The trial also failed to show improvements in disease activity at week 48, measured by the BILAG-based Composite Lupus Assessment index. A post-hoc subgroup analysis in patients with elevated interferon-gamma (IFNG) levels suggested potential clinical responses, which management argued could support advancing to Phase III development.
Guggenheim estimated that proceeding to Phase III would require two additional studies, likely taking two to three years to complete. The firm’s decision follows a broader reassessment of Alumis’s pipeline risk following the trial results.
Morgan Stanley reduced its price target on Alumis to $29 from $39, while Wells Fargo cut its target to $25 from $51. H.C. Wainwright maintained its Neutral rating with a $25 price target, citing the company’s focus on Sjögren’s syndrome and systemic lupus erythematosus as future indications. Stifel reiterated its Buy rating with a $44 price target, highlighting the importance of upcoming Phase 2 data for envudeucitinib.
InvestingPro analysts maintained a wide price target range of $15 to $46 for Alumis. The stock closed at $10.35 on Friday, down sharply from prior levels.
