Shares of Alumis Inc. fell nearly 60% to $10.35 after the biotech company disclosed that its experimental oral TYK2 inhibitor, envudeucitinib, failed to meet primary and secondary endpoints in a Phase IIb trial for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).
The 408-patient study, which evaluated disease activity using the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group-based Composite Lupus Assessment at Week 48, did not demonstrate statistically significant improvements in the overall population. Guggenheim Securities downgraded Alumis to Neutral from Buy and removed its prior $34 price target, citing the trial miss as a setback.
Other analysts followed with reductions to their targets. Morgan Stanley lowered its estimate to $29 from $39, while Wells Fargo cut its target to $25 from $51. H.C. Wainwright maintained its $25 target, and Stifel reiterated its $44 target. InvestingPro’s compiled range of analyst targets spans from $15 to $46.
The company indicated that its most likely path forward involves initiating two Phase III studies, though Guggenheim estimates this process could take two to three years. Further details on Phase III design, patient enrollment, dosing, and the targeting of IFNG-high patient subgroups are expected in future updates.
Alumis did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the trial results or the revised outlook.
