Gold futures rose 0.6% to $4,680.50 an ounce on Thursday, while spot gold climbed 0.7% to $4,625.83, paring earlier gains that had briefly pushed prices toward $4,650. The yellow metal had ended the prior session 1.4% lower, ending a five-day winning streak, but remains about 14% higher for August.
Silver gained 1.9% to $69.41 an ounce, and platinum advanced 1% to $1,854.30. The U.S. Dollar Index held steady at 99.12, limiting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.
The latest U.S. inflation reading showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% in the year through July, matching June’s increase and exceeding economists’ 3.6% forecast. The Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target remains out of reach, while second-quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 1.5%. Personal income rose 0.4% in July, though consumer spending was flat.
Market pricing suggests a 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, up from roughly 36% before the data, with traders also anticipating further tightening by year-end. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first major address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, a speech that will be scrutinized for signals on policy direction.
Analysts at ANZ noted that gold’s recent strength reflects a persistent "debasement trade," as investors hedge against fiscal deficits, elevated borrowing, and policies aimed at suppressing long-term Treasury yields. The U.S. Treasury’s decision to double planned buybacks of longer-dated debt has also fueled speculation about the interplay between monetary and fiscal policy.
Technical levels remain supportive, with gold holding above its 200-day moving average. Exchange-traded funds tracking gold have seen sustained inflows during the recent rally, alongside steady central bank purchases.
The Jackson Hole event is widely viewed as a key inflection point for global markets, with Warsh’s remarks expected to shape expectations for the Fed’s next policy moves.
