Gold traded above $4,500 per ounce on Friday, putting the metal on track to close higher for a third consecutive week. Safe-haven demand has strengthened amid heightened volatility in currency and debt markets, while rising oil prices have reinforced inflation concerns.
The advance follows a more than 4% surge on Wednesday after the U.S. Treasury said it would at least double the size of its long-term debt buybacks, a move aimed at easing borrowing costs. The announcement triggered a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, lifting gold’s appeal. Although bond yields later recovered, investors remained skeptical that the measures would durably lower long-term borrowing costs, sustaining gold’s upward momentum.
Additional tailwinds have come from rising oil prices, driven by U.S. preparations for new sanctions against Iran that threaten to reignite inflationary pressures. Central bank purchases, particularly by China, have also supported demand for the metal.
Technical analysis suggests further upside potential. On the H4 chart, gold broke out of a consolidation range around $4,330 and advanced toward $4,660, with a new range forming near $4,522. The local upside target remains $4,660, supported by the MACD indicator’s upward trajectory above its center line. On the H1 chart, the market cleared $4,522 and is now targeting $4,660, followed by a potential pullback to $4,500. The Stochastic oscillator’s signal line, currently above 80 and rising, aligns with this scenario.
The metal’s near-term direction will hinge on U.S. monetary policy signals, geopolitical developments, and energy price trends, according to the analysis.
