European natural gas prices rose to their highest level since mid-March on Wednesday, with the TTF month-ahead futures contract trading at €64.60 per megawatt hour on the Amsterdam exchange.
The gain marks a 20% increase over the past two weeks, driven by escalating supply concerns tied to regional instability. The price peak follows a March surge to around €70/MWh during the early phase of the Iran conflict, compared with roughly €30/MWh before the conflict began. Market participants cite persistent risks to energy shipments from the Persian Gulf, where Iran continues to demand implementation of a mid-June U.S. framework agreement before allowing transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Recent incidents have heightened supply uncertainty. The United Arab Emirates’ defense ministry reported intercepting two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, though Tehran denied involvement. Additional reports indicate renewed attacks on commercial vessels in the region.
Storage levels across Europe remain below prior-year benchmarks. According to the European Gas Infrastructure Association (GIE), regional gas reserves stood at 61.37% full as of August 17, down from 74% a year earlier. German storage levels were even lower, at 50.06%, compared with 66.9% in the same period last year.
Industry group FNB-Gas warned that meeting Germany’s legal storage mandate by November 1, 2026, appears increasingly unlikely, even at maximum observed injection rates of 1.2 terawatt hours per day. Current injection volumes are substantially lower, raising concerns over winter supply adequacy.
