BTG Pactual reduced its price target on Cogna Educacional to R$4.00 from R$5.00, while maintaining a buy recommendation on valuation grounds and strong cash generation. The adjustment reflects a 20.9% cut in the firm’s adjusted net-income estimate for 2027 to R$964 million and a 3.6% reduction in adjusted EBITDA to R$2.50 billion. Cogna’s shares were trading at R$2.14 at the time of the report, near the bottom of the 52-week range of R$2.00 to R$4.60.
The 2027 revenue projection was lowered 1.9%, though 2026 revenue is still expected to rise 1.4%. Analysts cited a tougher macro backdrop and regulatory changes, including the phase-out of several distance-learning courses, as key headwinds. Cogna secured approval for just over 100 nursing-focused distance-learning hubs under an in-person format, partially offsetting the impact.
Kroton, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of Cogna’s operating profit, reported first-half 2026 EBITDA 2.5% higher year-over-year. Provisions for doubtful accounts at Kroton remain elevated, running between 13% and 14% of revenues. Basic education and B2G segments continue to show strength, with K-12 projected to grow 12% to 13% after an above-expected first semester and B2G revenue reaching about R$400 million, expanding roughly 20% annually.
Cogna’s leverage metrics are improving, with net debt projected to fall from R$6.04 billion in 2025 to R$3.69 billion by 2028. Net-debt-to-EBITDA ratios are expected to decline from 2.3x in 2025 to 1.4x in 2028. Organic capital expenditure for 2026 is guided at approximately R$600 million, primarily directed toward technology, artificial intelligence, and laboratory infrastructure for medical courses. The company’s average debt cost stands at CDI plus 1.35%, with recent issuance priced at CDI plus 0.62%.
Dividend yield projections remain attractive, with a 12-month forecast of 5.4% and 6.1% for 2027, supported by a minimum payout ratio of 25%. Analysts retained a positive view on Cogna’s cash-flow generation and improving balance sheet, despite acknowledging increased macroeconomic risks and sector-specific challenges.
