Affirm Holdings Inc. is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after U.S. markets close on Thursday, with investors focused on whether the buy-now-pay-later company can meet its ambitious fiscal 2027 targets.
Analysts project adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $1.11 billion, according to a Refinitiv consensus compiled before the report. This would mark a sequential improvement from the May quarter, when Affirm reported earnings of $0.30 per share and revenue of $1.04 billion, beating estimates by 76% on earnings and 4.4% on revenue. Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates have edged down 0.86%, while revenue estimates have risen 0.22%, reflecting relatively stable expectations ahead of the release.
The San Francisco-based fintech has drawn attention for its growth trajectory, with a global user base of 380 million and a projected buy-now-pay-later market size of $491.79 billion by 2026. Default rates in the sector remain low, ranging between 1.8% and 2%, supporting Affirm’s lending model. The company’s merchant partners include brands such as Bed Bath & Beyond and Royal Caribbean, contributing to its gross merchandise value (GMV) growth.
Affirm’s stock, trading at $76.46, carries a mean price target of $91.67 among analysts, implying nearly 20% upside from current levels. Of the 34 analysts covering the stock, 25 recommend buying, nine rate it a hold, and none suggest selling. Oppenheimer raised its target to $100 on August 24, while BMO Capital increased its target to $86 on August 12. The 52-week range for the shares is $42.10 to $100.00.
For fiscal 2027, Affirm has guided toward annual GMV growth exceeding 25%, revenue as a percentage of GMV in the 7.5% to 8.5% range, and adjusted operating margins of 30% to 35%. These targets underscore the company’s push toward profitability amid a competitive BNPL landscape.
