Economy
Investors Rethink Portfolios as Inflation Fears Drive Shift to Alternatives
Traditional 60/40 allocations struggle as inflation erodes returns; advisors favor short-duration bonds, commodities and real assets to hedge purchasing power.
Barclays flags fiscal dominance as top market risk amid rising bond yields
Barclays warns of growing fiscal dominance as long-end yields climb, with French OAT spreads near post-pandemic highs and U.S. Treasury buybacks offering limited relief. Oil above $90 a barrel and euro strength underscore market jitters.
Euro zone consumer inflation expectations ease in July survey
Median perceived inflation over the past year fell to 3.5% while one-year-ahead expectations dipped to 2.9%. Income growth expectations also softened as spending growth outlook remained steady.
German business activity expands modestly in August, PMI shows
Manufacturing rebound offsets services slowdown as composite PMI falls to 51.0, remaining above the growth threshold. Economists had expected no change from July.
UK retail sales fall 0.5% in July after World Cup-driven June surge
Clothing and footwear led the decline as summer sales pulled forward demand, while annual growth slowed to 1.6%. GfK confidence hit a two-year high in August.
China to bolster slowing economy with further fiscal measures
Vice Finance Minister Liao Min outlines plans to accelerate budgeted infrastructure spending and deepen tax reforms. Central bank maintains accommodative stance without signaling rate cuts.
Global economic calendar for Aug 21, 2026: PMI, retail sales and business surveys
Key economic releases include S&P Global PMIs for the euro zone, U.S. and U.K., plus German retail sales and French business sentiment. Borussia Dortmund reports preliminary FY25/26 figures.
SNB’s Tschudin warns AI could fuel near-term inflation pressures
Swiss National Bank board member cites redirected investment flows and chip shortages as potential short-term drivers of price gains, though long-term impact remains uncertain.
Bank of Korea signals cautious approach to upcoming policy decisions
Senior Deputy Governor Kwon Min-soo emphasizes flexible, careful monetary policy amid inflation pressures and won strength. Next decision due August 27.
IMF’s Tenreyro warns AI-driven productivity may not ease inflation
Research suggests early AI investments could fuel demand-driven inflation before productivity gains materialize, complicating central bank policy.
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumps to 47.4 in August, far above forecast
U.S. factory activity growth surged in August, with the Philadelphia Fed’s gauge rising to 47.4 from 41.4 the prior month, handily beating expectations of 24.1. The rebound signals resilient manufacturing momentum amid broader economic expansion.
UK services PMI rises to six-month high in August, composite index beats forecasts
S&P Global’s flash PMI data show the UK services sector expanded at the fastest pace since February, while manufacturing cooled to a five-month low. Composite reading signals 0.3% quarterly GDP growth.
Argentina’s economic activity rises 2.7% in June, outpacing forecasts
June’s 2.7% year-on-year expansion exceeded market expectations of 1.9%, reversing May’s 0.4% gain as Latin America’s third-largest economy shows tentative recovery signs.
Argentina’s June economic activity rises 2.7%, outpacing forecasts
Latin America’s third-largest economy expanded 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding the 1.9% consensus and reversing May’s 0.4% gain, official data shows.
Brazil to keep fiscal framework if Lula wins second term
Finance Minister Dario Durigan says spending controls and revenue recovery will continue under current framework if President Lula da Silva secures reelection in October. Central bank holds rates at 14%.
U.S. national debt tops $40 trillion as servicing costs near $1.4 trillion
Crossing the $40 trillion mark, the U.S. faces rising debt servicing expenses and elevated Treasury yields, with projections pointing to $50 trillion by 2029. Market intervention has done little to curb structural pressures.
Bank of America warns of market fallout if U.S. bond plan fails
BofA strategist Hartnett sees dollar weakness and increased short bets on risk assets if 30-year Treasury yields stay above 5%. S&P 500 drops 1.9% amid bond-market volatility.
Trump denies directing bond market intervention
The former president stated he did not instruct an aide to influence U.S. Treasury yields.
UK factory orders hit highest since Nov 2024 in August CBI survey
Manufacturing activity gauge rose to -25 from -45 in July, the sharpest improvement in over five years. Export orders turned positive for first time since mid-2022.
BOJ’s July 2027 meeting timing fuels speculation on rate hike timing
The Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting, scheduled for July 21-22, 2027, coincides with the expiration of two hawkish board members’ terms, raising questions about the central bank’s normalization strategy.
Senate Democrats demand answers from USDA over data errors, staff cuts
Six Senate Democrats, led by Amy Klobuchar, question the USDA about revisions to beef export sales and corn acreage data, citing staff losses and potential market impacts.
U.S. Treasury's Bessent to outline Iran sanctions plan on Monday
Secretary Scott Bessent will detail planned measures against Iran and Treasury bond buybacks at a press conference. Bond yields surged before partially reversing after Wednesday's support announcement.
UK consumer confidence hits two-year high in August: GfK
GfK’s index rose to -14 from -17 in July, beating economist forecasts of -18. All but one sub-index improved, with major purchase sentiment at its highest since late 2021.
Japan manufacturing PMI rises to 55.1 as orders expand at fastest pace since 2018
Flash survey shows factory activity accelerating for a second straight month, led by semiconductor and AI-linked demand. Composite index at eight-month high.
US-Anleihe-Rückkäufe bremsen Zinsanstieg, doch Schuldenängste bleiben
Die US-Regierung verdoppelt Rückkäufe langlaufender Anleihen auf mindestens vier Milliarden Dollar, um den Anstieg der Renditen zu dämpfen. Analysten erwarten jedoch nur eine vorübergehende Wirkung, da strukturelle Schuldenprobleme fortbestehen.