At Barclays' 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference, Danone management said first-half 2024 results showed a return to positive momentum, with Q2 organic growth above 4% and full-year organic growth guidance maintained at 3%-5%. The company, valued at $73.6 billion with trailing 12-month revenue of $28.4 billion, said revenue had fallen 0.88% over the prior year while it traded at a 22.3 times earnings multiple.
Chief Financial Officer Juergen said the company had built a portfolio able to resist external shocks, adding that first-half results showed resilience across regions and categories. Chief Executive Antoine framed the strategy as the next chapter of the Renew Danone plan, saying Danone's purpose is to deliver health through food to as many people as possible, anchored in science, and that the 3%-5% guidance provides flexibility to do the difficult right rather than the easy wrong.
In Europe, Activia was back to growth across all markets after repositioning around gut health, hard claims and fibers. Oikos Pro surpassed 1 billion euros in revenue and was growing quickly, while Alpro was expanding into protein, yogurt and meal replacements. Kefir, a recent European launch, was tracking toward 100 million euros or more in revenue, and Skyr benefited from naturalness and protein positioning.
In China, Essensis was described as a strong success, growing rapidly on science-based positioning and still about halfway through its distribution potential. Mizone was a drag in the second quarter and was expected to remain a drag in the third quarter because of seasonal weakness. The infant milk formula market remained worth about 20 billion euros, but annual births had fallen to 7 million-8 million from about 14 million at peak years. The top three players held about 50% share, compared with about 80% in many developed markets.
Danone said the rest-of-world infant formula business was roughly the same size as China, with the global business split about one-third China, one-third Europe and one-third elsewhere. It was growing at high single to double digit rates in most quarters, with Aptamil representing about 95% of that business. Nutricia had tested well in Hong Kong and a phased rollout was planned.
In North America, Essentials Dairy and Plant-based accounted for about 7% of total company turnover, while the global EDP business grew 3.6% in the first half. Management said North America capacity improvements were expected to come online over the next 12 to 18 months, and the Danone brand was set to return to U.S. Greek yogurt in early 2027. Silk was being reshaped around protein and renewed yogurt activity.
The company also outlined distribution and demographic context. Mass retail represented about 40% of the business, down from about 60% historically. The number of people over 60 was expected to rise from 250 million in 2023 to 300 million in 2030 and 350 million in 2040. India, with 23 million births a year, was cited as a market where critical mass and presence would be needed within the next decade.
Acquisitions and investments were part of the strategy. Kate Farms gave Danone a medical nutrition platform in North America, its first large-scale entry in the segment with a product considered superior, and access to more than 1,500 hospitals. Huel was acquired to complement Alpro with plant-based complete nutrition, digital reach and direct-to-consumer skills. The 400 million euro investment in The Made Group, pending regulatory approval, focused on Australia, New Zealand and Thailand and was described as resembling a mini-Danone.
