Wall Street is shifting focus from Nvidia’s quarterly earnings to a $200 billion potential off-balance-sheet credit exposure tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure financing, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
Morgan Stanley projects total AI-related credit liabilities could approach $200 billion by the end of 2028, driven by Nvidia’s role in arranging financing for customers building AI systems. The company recently helped establish a $500 billion financing platform with six major U.S. financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and KKR, to support AI infrastructure development.
Nvidia has also committed to guaranteeing up to $105 billion to facilitate OpenAI’s 20-year lease of a large-scale data center in Ohio. The scale of these commitments has intensified scrutiny over the company’s balance sheet strength and the risks associated with its expanding role in the AI credit market.
AI hyperscaler debt issuance surged to $220 billion in 2026 through early August, according to BNP Paribas data, marking a $207 billion increase compared with the same period in 2025. Tech credit spreads have widened to 89 basis points over Treasuries, 9 basis points above the broader investment-grade market, reflecting growing concerns about leverage in the sector.
BofA analyst Vivek Arya highlighted the need for clearer disclosure of Nvidia’s multi-year commitments, stating that quantifying these liabilities would allow the market to better price the risks. Morgan Stanley initiated credit coverage of Nvidia with a neutral rating, noting that while the company’s growth enhances its financing capabilities, it also introduces new risks.
Nvidia’s stock rose 2.2% on Tuesday, ending a seven-session losing streak, though options traders have priced in a potential 5.4% move in either direction following the upcoming earnings report, implying a roughly $280 billion swing in market capitalization. The company’s conventional leverage ratio remains low at 0.4x.
Q2 revenue is expected to nearly double year-over-year to $92.18 billion, driven by a more than twofold increase in data center sales, while Q3 consensus stands at $104.20 billion, representing an 82.8% year-over-year gain.
