UBS downgraded French reinsurer Scor from ‘neutral’ to ‘sell’ on Tuesday, citing a weaker reinsurance pricing outlook and reduced earnings forecasts.
The bank lowered its price target for Scor by 6% to €32.50 from €34.50, while forecasting a total return of -0.4% for the stock through 2027. This compares with a projected market return of 7.8%, implying an excess return of -8.2%. Scor shares were down 2.3% in early trading, extending a 28% gain for the year.
UBS also trimmed its earnings estimates for Scor, projecting €4.04 per share in 2026, €4.23 in 2027 and €4.33 in 2028. These figures fall below consensus estimates from Visible Alpha, which stand at €4.32, €4.50 and €4.85 respectively. The bank noted Scor’s net earnings are expected to trail consensus by 2.5% to 3.7% in 2027 and 2028, with per-share figures lower by 2.6% to 4.3%.
The downgrade comes ahead of the annual Monte Carlo Rendez-vous, scheduled for September 5–9, where reinsurance pricing discussions are anticipated to reflect year-on-year declines on a risk-adjusted basis. UBS views the event as a potential negative catalyst for the sector.
Scor is also expected to raise its solvency target range to 200–240% from the current 185–220% at its Capital Markets Day on December 3. A share buyback is not projected before 2028, though UBS noted benign catastrophe activity in 2026 and 2027 could bring forward the first meaningful repurchase of €200 million by 12–18 months.
