President Donald Trump escalated economic pressure on Iran, warning of “tremendous economic consequences” for any country providing financial or logistical support to Tehran. The announcement follows Ukraine’s reported strikes on a major Russian refinery in Tatarstan and an oil terminal on the Black Sea, which triggered fires and disrupted regional refining capacity.
The U.S. military has maintained a protected shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, enabling 15–20 tankers to transit nightly and moving nearly 10 million barrels of oil per day—about half of pre-war levels. Officials cited degraded Iranian surveillance capabilities from recent U.S. strikes as a factor in stabilizing flows through the critical chokepoint.
U.S. crude production rose to 13.83 million barrels per day in the week ending August 14, up 25,000 bpd from the prior week and 448,000 bpd above year-ago levels. Crude exports jumped by 1.008 million bpd to 4.066 million, while net crude imports fell to 2.527 million bpd. Commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million, though total inventories remain 101.9 million barrels below the year-ago level.
Distillate inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels to 105.6 million, leaving them 10.4 million barrels below last year’s level, while motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels to 209.4 million. Refinery crude inputs climbed by 215,000 bpd to 17.395 million, with product supplied falling by 1.097 million bpd to 19.538 million as gasoline demand softened and distillate demand increased by 495,000 bpd.
The United Arab Emirates announced it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Iran following an attack attributed to Tehran, further isolating the Islamic Republic. The combination of heightened geopolitical risk and lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields—amid the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet plans—added a premium to oil prices, though front-month futures eased slightly after recent gains.
Natural gas markets remain range-bound, with September futures trading near $2.75 after a brief rally to $2.814. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 36 billion cubic feet injection for the week ending August 14, leaving working gas storage at 3,153 billion cubic feet—198 Bcf above the five-year average but 25 Bcf below last year’s level. Analysts expect a smaller build of 13–18 Bcf this week, reflecting persistent late-summer heat across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Lower-48 gas production remains near record levels, exceeding 111 billion cubic feet per day, while liquefied natural gas feedgas holds around 17.2 billion cubic feet per day. Freeport LNG’s maintenance completion is expected to add incremental demand in the coming weeks, though ample storage and strong supply continue to cap price upside.
