TD Cowen has maintained United Airlines as its top airline pick for 2026 while lowering its price target to $192, citing the carrier’s strategic revenue initiatives and fleet management. The firm also retained a Buy rating on Delta Air Lines, reducing its target to $105, as rising jet fuel prices pressure earnings across the sector.
The recommendations come as TD Cowen revised estimates for six major U.S. airlines, including SkyWest, and introduced fiscal 2028 forecasts. Analyst Tom Fitzgerald noted that higher fuel costs are being partially offset by resilient travel demand and modest yield improvements, though price-sensitive leisure travelers may curb discretionary spending in the coming months.
United Airlines reported adjusted second-quarter earnings per share of $1.99, exceeding expectations, and raised the lower end of its full-year 2026 guidance. Fitzgerald highlighted the airline’s long-term revenue strategies, fleet initiatives, and potential upgrade to investment-grade credit as key positives. The firm estimates United’s 2027 earnings at roughly 13 times forward EPS.
Delta Air Lines remains TD Cowen’s second top pick, supported by its diversified revenue streams, including a growing maintenance and operations business, a leading loyalty program, and strong premium cabin exposure. Fitzgerald pointed to growth opportunities in Asia Pacific, Africa, the Middle East, and the emerging Austin, Texas hub. Delta is on track to meet its target of 1x gross leverage in the coming years, with TD Cowen estimating its 2027 earnings at about 14 times forward EPS.
Bernstein SocGen Group separately raised its price target on United to $162 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The contrasting views underscore the mixed outlook for airlines as fuel costs remain elevated ahead of the September conference season.
