The Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) unveiled its inaugural Swiss Banking Outlook Industry Forum on Monday, combining its annual Bankenbarometer and Swiss Banking Outlook into a single presentation for the first time. The event, held at Zürcher Kantonalbank’s atrium in Zurich, is slated to become an annual fixture.
The Bankenbarometer provides a data-driven review of the prior year’s banking performance, while the Swiss Banking Outlook aggregates consensus forecasts from chief economists and CIOs of member institutions with in-house research capabilities. Both reports are authored by Martin Hess, SBA chief economist and head of economic policy.
Swiss banks achieved their highest-ever aggregated business success in 2025, rising 5.8% year-on-year to CHF 73.8 billion. The record surpassed the previous peak in 2006, a period marked by the dot-com bubble’s irrational exuberance. Growth was driven by commission and service income, which climbed 6.5%, and other ordinary income, up 26.6%, while net interest income edged down 0.8% despite higher lending volumes.
Large banks accounted for the bulk of the gains, increasing their business success by CHF 3.3 billion, or 11.5%, to capture a 43.3% share of the total—its first share gain since 2020. They were the only banking group to post growth in net interest income, as their interest expense declined more sharply than interest revenue.
Managed client assets rose 4.8% to CHF 9.73 trillion in 2025, crossing the CHF 10 trillion threshold in the first half of 2026 at CHF 10.12 trillion. Foreign client assets grew faster than domestic holdings for the first time in years.
Employment trends diverged: domestic full-time equivalent staff fell 2.5% to 92,002 at year-end 2025, entirely due to cuts at large banks, while all other banking groups added jobs. Total personnel expenses increased by CHF 192 million, attributed to severance payments from restructuring and higher variable compensation. Domestic headcount declined a further 1.4% in H1 2026, while overseas staff dropped 3.7%, leaving the sector’s unemployment rate at 3.5%. For H2 2026, 59.4% of surveyed banks expect staffing levels to remain stable, 33.3% anticipate growth, and 7.2% foresee reductions.
Macroeconomic expectations for 2026 and 2027 point to modest growth of 1.0% and 1.4% respectively, with inflation projected at 0.6% in both years and unemployment at 3.0%. All respondents expect the Swiss National Bank’s policy rate to remain at zero through year-end 2026, with 60% still anticipating zero rates in 2027 and 40% expecting a hike.
For 2026, 53% of banks forecast higher aggregated business success, 33% expect stability, and none predict a decline. Commission and service income is expected to drive gains, with 73% of banks projecting growth, while 29% see net interest income declining.
Regulatory complexity remains the top risk, cited as very important by 53% of respondents and important by a further 40%. Other concerns include margin pressure from bank discounters and political uncertainty over future frameworks. Sixty percent warn that regulatory uncertainty could unsettle clients.
Digital customer experience ranks as the most critical opportunity, with 93% of banks rating it important or very important. Hess cited a State Secretariat for Economic Affairs study showing only 13% of SMEs have secured bank loans, citing cumbersome processes and perceived low approval odds.
On AI, banks view the technology as a data-gathering tool rather than a decision-maker. Anja Hochberg, CIO of Zürcher Kantonalbank, noted AI enabled earlier committee meetings during geopolitical events but stressed human judgment remains essential for investment decisions.
