A new study published Thursday in the Wiley journal Sustainable Development disputes the widely held belief that robusta coffee is more resilient to climate change than other coffee varieties. The research, led by Aaron Davis, senior research leader of crops and global change at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, labels the assumption as an "internet myth" that emerged roughly a decade ago.
The paper argues that earlier evaluations of robusta’s climate resilience were based on flawed methodologies, including the misclassification of irrigated farms as ideal growing conditions and the failure to account for the crop’s susceptibility to drought. These oversights have contributed to an overestimation of the variety’s ability to withstand shifting climate patterns.
Robusta coffee remains a critical component of global coffee supply, with tens of millions of bags reaching international markets annually. Demand for the variety has been rising, particularly in key producing countries such as Vietnam and Brazil, which together account for the majority of robusta exports. However, the study concludes that previous assessments of its climate resilience should be regarded as tentative at best.
The findings come as industry stakeholders increasingly prioritize climate adaptation. Earlier this month, a Vietnamese coffee official highlighted the urgency of addressing climate change to protect production levels, shifting the focus from long-term concerns to immediate action. The study’s conclusions challenge the narrative that robusta’s heat tolerance alone can safeguard the sector amid changing environmental conditions.
