Mexico’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% following its August meeting, with the governing board unanimously endorsing the decision.
The board noted that headline and core inflation are still expected to ease over the forecast horizon, though more gradually than previously anticipated. Persistent services inflation remains a key drag, while merchandise inflation has contributed to the decline in core measures. Most members also highlighted that risks to the inflation trajectory remain tilted to the upside.
Global uncertainty continues to weigh on policy deliberations, with the ongoing Middle East conflict cited as a potential source of upward price pressure. Escalation in the region could also weigh on global economic activity, the board warned.
Several members flagged additional risks, including the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon in the second half of the year. This weather pattern is expected to exert direct inflationary pressures and may trigger second-round effects.
On growth, most members observed that while GDP expanded in the latest quarter, the output gap remains negative. One member projected that economic growth in 2026 could exceed the central bank’s current forecast of 1.1%, while another cautioned that risks to activity remain skewed to the downside.
The minutes were released on Thursday alongside the policy decision.
