Restaurant sector outlook for 2026 has been revised upward by Gordon Haskett, with 12 of 22 major restaurant companies receiving upward or maintained estimates based on second-quarter performance metrics.
The revisions follow analysis of same-store sales, earnings per share, EBITDA, and revenue trends from the past four quarters. Nine companies saw positive adjustments, three had their estimates maintained, and 10 faced downward revisions. Among the firms with positive revisions across all 2026 metrics were The Cheesecake Factory, Bloomin' Brands, BJ's Restaurants, and Starbucks.
Over the past 12 months, 14 of the 22 companies experienced reduced estimates. Positive revisions during this period were noted for El Pollo Loco, Dutch Bros, Brinker International, and The Cheesecake Factory, while the largest downward adjustments were applied to Papa Johns, Portillo's, Jack in the Box, Wendy's, and Fireworks.
Sector performance data shows the restaurant industry averaged a 6% stock gain over the 12 months ending August 24, 2026, trailing the S&P 500's 18% advance. Casual dining names significantly outperformed the broader market, while fast-casual and pizza segments underperformed. Same-store sales estimate revisions exhibited the strongest correlation with stock price movements, with an average correlation of 0.67 across EPS, EBITDA, revenue, and same-store sales revisions.
Gordon Haskett identified Dutch Bros, Domino's Pizza, and Wingstop as outliers where revision trends diverged from stock performance, suggesting these stocks may be undervalued.
