Gold futures faced renewed pressure on Wednesday after briefly testing resistance above $4,539.54, with prices retreating below that level within hours of the FOMC minutes release. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting in July, but three officials—Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan—voted in favor of a 25-basis-point increase.
The minutes, released Wednesday, underscored a divided committee. While most participants favored holding rates steady to await further economic clarity, several argued for a more restrictive stance, citing broad-based price pressures and the need to sustain progress toward the Fed’s inflation and employment goals. Recent data has provided the central bank with additional leeway: July’s nonfarm payrolls report missed expectations, and both headline and core inflation showed moderation on an annual basis.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on markets, with the U.S.-Iran conflict entering its 174th day. Active negotiations remain stalled, and the U.S. has maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports, while regional exchanges and threats have kept pressure elevated. Traders now turn to Thursday’s economic releases, including the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims, for further direction on monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment.
Technical indicators suggest gold is at a critical juncture. On a daily chart, futures opened at $4,567.79, tested a session high of $4,578.46 and low of $4,535.05, and formed a bearish pattern as upward momentum failed to sustain above prior resistance. The analysis projects a test of key support at $4,495.21; a breakdown there could extend declines toward the 9 EMA at $4,553. Conversely, a sustained move above resistance at $4,584.83 may prompt fresh short positioning with a stop-loss at $4,613.
On the 1-hour chart, gold is attempting to clear a key resistance at the 9 EMA ($4,550). A sustained break above this level could stabilize the trend, while a drop below the 20 EMA ($4,532.53) may accelerate selling toward the 50 EMA ($4,493).
