Gold prices hovered near $4,600 on Thursday, consolidating after a volatile week that saw the metal erase early gains following a sharp August rebound. Spot gold last traded at $4,597.60 per troy ounce, virtually unchanged from Wednesday’s close, after a three-session sequence that highlighted the metal’s fragile momentum.
The August advance, which pushed gold up 16% from near $4,000 to an intraday peak of $4,696.20 on Tuesday, marked the strongest monthly gain since January. The move followed softer U.S. labor and inflation data early in the month, which reduced market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. However, Wednesday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report complicated the outlook. Headline PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding consensus estimates, while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2% and 3.3% respectively. The data split policymakers’ views without resolving the September decision, leaving gold caught between opposing forces.
Gold’s technical structure reflects the uncertainty. The metal remains above both the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages at $4,606.20 and $4,502.80 respectively, indicating underlying support within the broader uptrend. The relative strength index near 41.00 suggests momentum has waned without signaling outright weakness. Positioning data indicates that systematic buyers, who typically drive rapid rallies, are already positioned, leaving discretionary flows to determine the next leg.
Traders are refraining from directional bets ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first major address. Market pricing reflects a 60% probability that the Fed holds rates steady in September, down from 64% before Wednesday’s data, while the risk of a hike has increased to 38–40%. The trajectory of these expectations has been the primary driver of gold’s August advance, with September hike odds falling from 50% to 31% earlier in the month before rebounding slightly.
The metal’s sensitivity to rate expectations remains pronounced. Gold and silver declined roughly 29% from their January highs as hawkish policy repricing took hold in the first half of 2026, with September hike odds briefly rising to 68% in June. The current consolidation suggests that discretionary desks are reluctant to extend positions ahead of Warsh’s remarks, which could clarify the Fed’s policy path.
Second-quarter GDP data released Wednesday confirmed a 1.5% annualized growth rate, matching the initial estimate and down from 2.1% in the first quarter. Durable goods orders rose 1.1% in July, outpacing forecasts and signaling resilient business investment. The combination of sticky inflation, moderate growth, and strong durable goods orders presents a mixed backdrop for gold, neither decisively bullish nor bearish.
The all-time high of $5,602.225, set on January 29, 2026, remains $1,008 above current levels—a gap that has persisted for seven months. Year-to-date, gold is up 6.73%, but down 10.89% over the past six months. The metal’s ability to sustain its August rebound now hinges on whether Warsh’s speech signals a pause in tightening or reinforces expectations for higher rates.
