The U.S. Dollar Index is testing critical resistance at 99.65, a level aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the recent 5-hour close of 99.628. The index has retraced from a swing low of 98.47, with the Ichimoku cloud range spanning 99.07 to 99.26. Traders are monitoring a no-trade zone between 99.50 and 99.80 as the market approaches the 200-day simple moving average at 100.09.
Technical indicators reflect elevated buying pressure but warn of potential exhaustion. The Relative Strength Index stands at 72.94, while the Money Flow Index has climbed to 88.18, both signaling overbought conditions. The MACD remains bullish at $0.1079, though the gap to its signal line has narrowed to $0.0362. A bullish Marubozu candlestick formed at 99.65, reinforcing short-term upward momentum.
A break above 99.65 could open a path toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 100.02 and the 200-day SMA at 100.09, with aggressive bullish targets set at 100.38 and 101.00. Support is seen at 99.20, the Ichimoku baseline, while a deeper pullback would target the swing low of 98.47. Bears are eyeing a rejection at 99.65 or a move above 100.15 to invalidate the downside scenario, with targets aligned at 99.20, 98.80, and 98.47.
