The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which flared in February and saw a fragile two-week ceasefire in April, is driving structural changes in global trade, defense spending and monetary systems, according to a BCA Research report published on August 30, 2026.
The conflict has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s expanding arsenal of drones, unmanned vessels and anti-ship missiles has heightened the risk of shipping disruptions. BCA’s Chief Investment Strategist Marko Papic argues that the U.S. may prioritize disrupting China’s geoeconomic interests over maintaining a large regional military footprint, noting that destruction is easier than reconstruction. Papic also highlights a feedback loop in which multipolarity fuels conflict, which in turn increases national security spending, creating supply-side risks and just-in-case inventory accumulation.
BCA identifies six key trends emerging from the conflict. First, a shift toward multipolarity, with countries prioritizing individual interests over alliance commitments and China potentially expanding its military presence to secure oil supplies. Second, the evolution of warfare toward drone-based systems and anti-ship missiles, which lower the cost of trade disruption and drive demand for new defense technologies.
Third, an inflationary impulse followed by potential disinflation as overbuilt redundancies in supply chains outpace demand. Fourth, the erosion of U.S. dollar hegemony, with BCA’s Head of BCA's FICC Platform Mathieu Savary projecting a multi-anchor currency regime in which the dollar remains dominant but its leadership wanes as Saudi Arabia and other commodity producers reduce their reliance on dollar-priced crude.
Fifth, increased nuclear proliferation risks, with countries such as Japan, South Korea, Germany, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and Ukraine cited as potential candidates for nuclear breakout, supporting both nuclear energy and uranium markets. Sixth, the continued strategic value of fossil fuels, with China potentially stockpiling years of oil while expanding its electric vehicle fleet, and regions with low production costs and high geopolitical risk—such as the Americas and parts of Africa—ramping up domestic crude output.
The report comes as ProPicks AI’s Tech Titans strategy, launched in November 2023, has more than doubled the S&P 500’s performance. Within the strategy, Siemens Energy has surged 231.5% and Sandisk (SNDK) has gained 189% since inception.
