Copper prices have surged toward record levels as the threat of U.S. tariffs disrupts the global market balance, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper reaching $14,343 per metric ton on Tuesday, within 1.2% of its all-time peak of $14,527.50.
Withdrawals from LME warehouses have accelerated, with 65,400 tons of metal removed in recent days through warrant cancellations. Meanwhile, COMEX inventories have climbed for 46 consecutive days to a record 675,185 metric tons, reflecting heightened stockpiling in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff implementation. Analysts at CRU had previously projected a global copper surplus of 639,000 tons for 2026, but the tariff threat has altered that outlook.
U.S. refined copper imports have risen sharply, with nearly 885,000 tons imported in the first half of 2026, a 3% increase from the same period last year and more than double the volume from the first six months of 2024. Full-year 2025 imports reached a record 1.64 million tons. The potential tariffs, which could take effect on January 1, 2027 at a 15% rate before rising to 30% in 2028, have prompted accelerated stockpiling and disrupted trade flows.
The market dynamics have shifted from surplus to balance, according to Robert Edwards, principal copper analyst at CRU. "At best, it’s a balanced market," he said, noting that U.S.-stockpiled copper is unlikely to re-enter global trade due to cost barriers. Alice Fox, a strategist at Macquarie, warned that COMEX stocks could take years to deplete, though she cautioned that prices would "massively spike" if the tariffs proceed. Glencore CEO Gary Nagle highlighted the role of uncertainty in driving the rally, noting that U.S. stockpiles are effectively locked in place.
Supply constraints have also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Amelia Fu, head of commodities market strategy at Bank of China International, cited low inventories, mine disruptions, and an outage at Indonesia’s Gresik smelter as key factors. "We could see new record highs in copper prices in coming weeks or months," she said. The market remains highly sensitive to policy developments, with the U.S. Commerce Department due to report to the White House by June 30 to inform a final decision on tariffs.
