Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target for MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) to $350 from $450, citing a more conservative outlook for Bitcoin amid shifting macro conditions.
The firm maintained an Outperform recommendation for the software firm, which has become a proxy for direct Bitcoin exposure through its treasury strategy. MicroStrategy's shares closed at $126.83 on August 24, up 3.42% on the day and 22% over the past week, though still down 64% year-over-year. The stock's high beta of 3.55 places it among the most volatile in the market, according to InvestingPro's valuation metrics.
MicroStrategy has allocated $1.59 billion for potential Bitcoin acquisitions and liquidity management, including a newly introduced USD Cash component. The company also repurchased 288,930 preferred shares following its fiscal second-quarter results for 2026.
Bernstein SocGen's framework assumes Bitcoin follows a standard four-year cycle, with a projected peak near $300,000 by 2029. The bank expects a recovery to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, though it notes that roughly 60% of Bitcoin is held by price-insensitive entities capable of absorbing even 50% drawdowns.
The revision follows broader macro shifts, including the end of a four-decade trend of declining interest rates, which has increased debt-servicing burdens for governments amid record-high sovereign debt levels.
Other analysts have adjusted their targets for MicroStrategy. Canaccord raised its target to $175 with a Buy rating, while Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $186. H.C. Wainwright maintained a Buy rating with a $325 target, and B.Riley reduced its target to $155.
