Wall Street research firm Bernstein projects Bitcoin will retrace its 2025 high and reach $125,000 by the end of 2026, before advancing to $300,000 in 2029 as part of its next four-year cycle.
The firm’s outlook, outlined in a Wednesday report, assumes Bitcoin has completed the current bear phase after a 28% rebound over the prior 10 days. Bernstein noted the latest drawdown was less severe than historical declines, with a 50% peak-to-trough drop compared with prior cycles that saw declines of 75% to 90%. Institutional and corporate buyers have provided structural support, reducing volatility and limiting downside, the analysts said.
Under Bernstein’s base case, Bitcoin is projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 before peaking at roughly $300,000 in 2029. The bull scenario anticipates $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029. The firm maintained its long-term target of approximately $1 million by 2033 in both scenarios.
Bernstein’s methodology ties price targets to Bitcoin’s marginal production cost, estimating a price-to-cost multiple that aligns with historical cycle patterns. At Bitcoin’s projected $125,000 peak in 2025, the multiple is 1.4x, declining to 1.25x at $300,000 in 2029 and 1.2x at $1 million in 2033.
The firm also adjusted its outlook for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 840,447 BTC—about 4% of Bitcoin’s capped supply. Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating on Strategy but lowered its price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and an updated cycle projection. Strategy’s shares closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4%.
Bernstein expects a Bitcoin recovery could enable Strategy to resume aggressive accumulation after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. The firm also noted that a rebound in Strategy’s preferred stock, Stream (STRC), to roughly $100 could support renewed purchasing activity. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday.
Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence highlighted that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may face greater risk from prolonged capital-market access issues than from a sharp crypto market downturn, potentially limiting its ability to meet about $1.76 billion in annual obligations without liquidating holdings.
