UBS shares fell as much as 4.7% in early Tuesday trading to 41.31 Swiss francs, returning the stock to levels last seen in early July. The shares had already declined nearly 3% on Monday.
The selloff came in a broadly weak market, with the SMI down about 0.9% to 13,756 points, and was driven by cautious commentary from Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. BNP Paribas and UniCredit shares also fell more than 2.2% on Tuesday.
Speaking at a Barclays conference on Monday, Moynihan said the bank expected "relatively stable" trading revenues in the third quarter compared with the year-earlier period, signaling an unexpected pause in the rally Wall Street had posted in the first half. He projected investment banking fees of $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, below the roughly $2 billion analysts had anticipated. Bank of America shares dropped as much as 6% on Monday in response.
Investors are now weighing similar concerns for UBS, whose trading revenues had been exceptionally strong. The Swiss bank posted $6.3 billion in trading revenues in the first half, helping European investment banks reach a 10-year high of $32 billion in the period, alongside Barclays, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas.
While European investment banks have struggled to defend their global trading market share against larger US rivals — falling from nearly 40% nine years ago to a low of 25% in the second quarter of 2026 — UBS has been a notable exception. The bank expanded its share of global trading by 0.6 percentage points since 2021 to 4.8% in the second quarter of 2026, one of the largest gains among major banks.
The prospect of a third-quarter slowdown now carries particular weight for UBS after analysts had sharply raised their estimates. The consensus currently points to $11 billion in full-year 2026 trading revenues for the bank. In equity trading, UBS recorded the largest upward revisions among European lenders, with 2026 forecasts lifted by 35% to more than $6.3 billion. Expectations for trading in other securities were also revised higher. A cooling in Wall Street activity could put those targets at risk.
