York Space Systems revised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance upward to a range of $170 million to $580 million, with a midpoint near $375 million, while projecting that a significant acceleration in top-line growth will shift into the 2027 timeframe. The comments came during a presentation at Jefferies' Global Industrials Conference 2026 on September 9, 2026.
Founded in 2012 by CEO Dirk Wallinger, the company reported a tracked pipeline of $11.5 billion against an 88% win rate on bids. Commercial contracts now account for approximately 30% of backlog, up from roughly 15% at the time of its IPO, with management targeting 40% to 45% commercial mix within 12 to 18 months.
Wallinger noted that a shift in government acquisition practices pushed revenue recognition back by about six months, moving the impact from late 2026 into 2027. Revenue on York contracts is typically recognized linearly over a 24- to 30-month period from project kickoff. He said the company expects to see meaningful backlog-to-revenue conversion beginning in Q1 through Q3 of 2027.
Recent contract wins and budget tailwinds paint a broad opportunity set. York won a $600 million contract, and Wallinger highlighted several larger budget categories. The Space Data Network has shifted from a $500 million transport budget to a $4 billion total opportunity, with $2 billion available to non-SpaceX providers. The Airborne Moving Target Indication program carries an $8 billion budget opportunity. Perhaps most dramatically, the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group budget rose from $250 million in fiscal 2026 to a presidential request of $55 billion for fiscal 2027 — a 2,400% increase.
On unmanned systems, Wallinger argued that scaling deployment to hundreds or thousands of platforms requires a sophisticated communications backbone in space, rather than manual joystick-based control. "It's definitely not going to work against China," he said.
Operationally, York has placed more than 55 satellites into orbit across three operational constellations, operates mission operations centers at unclassified, classified, and top-secret levels, and supports nearly 50 ground stations worldwide. In delivery terms, York has completed two full Falcon 9 missions of spacecraft platforms, compared with half that total combined from its two closest competitors, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.
York's stock (YSS) was trading at $8.07, down $0.86 or 9.63%, and roughly even with its 52-week low of $8.05. The shares are down 76% year to date. Market capitalization stood at $1.23 billion. Revenue over the last twelve months was $405 million, with a negative EBITDA of $113.6 million and levered free cash flow of negative $219 million. After-hours trading lifted the price to $8.20, up $0.13 or 1.61%.
Adam Samuelson of Jefferies' Aerospace & Defense Equity Research team covered the presentation, and questions were fielded from the audience including one by an investor identified only as David.
