Russians fear Putin may conscript them after election

Russia is reportedly preparing to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers for the Ukraine war ahead of parliamentary elections this weekend. This comes as concerns grow among Russian officials and recruitment staff about President Vladimir Putin's potential decision to order a new, large-scale mobilization. According to documents obtained by Bloomberg News, these officials have been opening foreign bank accounts and transferring assets abroad while encouraging friends and relatives to leave the country. Despite Putin's denials, a European security official reports that Russia is preparing to conscript 300,000 more men by the end of the year. Unlike the previous mobilization in September 2022, which caused widespread panic and mass emigration, this time there may be no official announcement. The Kremlin has reportedly been quietly building digital infrastructure to conscript men and block potential escape routes. The three-day parliamentary election, the first since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, is expected to see "United Russia" defend its majority in the State Duma, which it has held since 2003. Russia is suffering significant losses in the Ukraine war, with around 700,000 Russian soldiers currently deployed. To maintain its military strength, Russia must recruit approximately 400,000 new soldiers annually, but the pool of volunteers is reportedly shrinking as the war enters its fifth year. According to Janis Kluge, an analyst at the SWP in Berlin, Russian regions recruited around 234,000 new contract soldiers between January and August, down from approximately 260,000 in the same period last year. Russia is also expanding its military commissariats to handle the increased number of conscripts. Advertisements across the country urge men to sign military contracts to avoid conscription. Putin has dismissed warnings of a mobilization as "complete nonsense" and part of a Western information campaign against Russia. He stated that "we have no problems with military personnel availability" and that people are voluntarily signing contracts. A source familiar with the situation in Moscow reports that around 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed or wounded each week in Ukraine, in addition to the wounded. Russia needs more frontline troops, and the quality of existing recruits is reportedly very low. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 301,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded this year, with monthly losses reaching 42,000 in July and August. Ukraine also faces personnel shortages, with approximately 1.5 million men on police wanted lists for avoiding military service and around 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly absent without leave. Neither Russia nor Ukraine publishes official figures on troop losses. Putin continues to seek full control over the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Russian forces are attempting to encircle cities in relentless attacks, which have failed to capture the region since the start of fighting in 2014. Ukraine rejects his demand to cede this territory as part of a peace agreement. In a televised address to the nation, Putin linked the election to the war, stating that "your voting decision and your determination will once again show that millions of people stand behind our fighters." "Participation in the elections is our common contribution to Russia's victory." Four other parties supporting the war are expected to win seats in the parliamentary election; there is no genuine opposition. The "For Peace and Freedom" campaign of the Yabloko party, which received enough support to potentially enter the Duma, was excluded from the election by the Supreme Court of Russia for alleged violations of election laws. Jewgeni Mintschenko, a Moscow-based political scientist who previously worked for the Kremlin, suggests that the State Duma will have little influence, as all parties adhere to the president's consensus. Jekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, believes the Kremlin will focus its mobilization efforts on regions that demonstrated the highest support for Putin during the elections. European government representatives report that Putin has not yet made a final decision on mobilization. The negative public reaction to the 2022 conscription of 300,000 reservists remains a concern for nervous Kremlin officials. While the previous mobilization relied on the delivery of written notices, Russia's digital "Unified Military Register" is now automatically linked to tax authorities, police databases, medical records, property registers, and border controls. Under updated regulations, an electronic summons becomes legally valid seven days after its posting on the online portal, regardless of whether the recipient has viewed it. Once the notification is published, an exit ban is automatically enforced at border crossings to prevent the conscripts from leaving Russia. Those who do not appear at a recruitment office within 20 days face automated sanctions, including restrictions on public services such as vehicle registration, property transactions, credit access, and the practice of a profession. Some officials feared that Putin's planned 15 percent reduction in personnel, part of this year's budget cuts, could hinder the mobilization effort.