Economy
U.S. private payrolls rise to 11,750 per week, ADP data shows
Private employers added 11,750 jobs weekly in the four weeks to Aug. 8, up from 9,500, as hiring accelerated for a second straight week. Labor market data revisions show 103,000 fewer jobs than previously reported in May and June.
German GDP, business confidence beat forecasts in Q2
German GDP grew 0.3% in Q2, while the Ifo business climate index rose to 88.8 in August, both exceeding expectations. The economy has expanded for three straight quarters.
Hungary sets 7.5% budget deficit target amid drought and energy crisis
Finance Ministry cites inherited fiscal challenges and crises as it targets a wider deficit, with debt projected to rise to 77.5% of GDP in 2024.
Canada factory sales seen down 0.2% in July - Statscan flash estimate
Manufacturing output likely declined as chemical and fabricated metal sectors weighed on activity, according to Statistics Canada's advance estimate.
Germany's business confidence index rises more than expected in August
Ifo Institute's business climate index increased to 88.8 in August from 86.7 in July, surpassing forecasts of 87.2. Germany's Q2 GDP growth revised up to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
Mexico inflation quickens to 3.26% in early August
Consumer prices rose 0.10% in the first half of August, while core inflation climbed to 3.93% year-over-year. Bank of Mexico's target remains 3% ±1 percentage point.
Truflation forecasts July core PCE at 0.2% MoM, Fed seen on hold through 2026
U.S. core inflation expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July, while Truflation projects the Federal Reserve will forgo rate hikes for the remainder of the year amid mixed economic signals.
Eurozone PMI, inflation data support ECB rate hike bet
Eurozone business activity expanded in August, while inflation rose to 2.9% y/y, reinforcing expectations for a September ECB rate hike. Barclays expects a 25 bps increase.
Brazil 2026 GDP growth forecast cut to 1.95% in latest central bank survey
Analysts trimmed Brazil's 2026 GDP growth outlook to 1.95% from 1.98% in the latest weekly central bank survey. Inflation projections for 2026 and 2027 were largely unchanged.
Brazil sets 2027 minimum wage at R$1,741, budget bill on track
The federal government has finalized the minimum wage for 2027 at R$1,741, with the 2027 budget bill set for submission by August 31. Adjustments comply with legal inflation and GDP-linked formulas.
Mexico's GDP grows 1.4% sequentially in Q2, below preliminary estimate
Latin America's second-largest economy expanded 1.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, rebounding from a revised 0.3% contraction in Q1, while annual growth reached 2.1%.
Citadel warns Treasury bond buybacks may weaken dollar
Citadel Securities cautions that expanded U.S. long-dated Treasury buybacks could ease financial conditions and stoke inflation by depressing the dollar.
U.S. Treasury launches quantum-readiness task force for financial sector
New public-private initiative aims to transition the financial system to quantum-safe cryptography amid rising concerns over quantum computing threats. Task force follows Trump-era executive order and G7 cybersecurity roadmap.
U.S. Treasury’s $950B cash pile seen fueling surge in long-bond buybacks
Expanded buyback program, starting Sept. 9, aims to stabilize 30-year yields near 19-year highs. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals broader toolkit amid geopolitical bond-market volatility.
UK household energy debt hits £6 billion as price cap set to rise 4%
Outstanding energy bills surge to £6 billion, with regulator Ofgem poised to lift the price cap to a three-year high. Unpaid debt adds £50 annually to household bills.
Brazil’s banks urge fiscal discipline as public debt nears 82% of GDP
Major Brazilian lenders warn of unsustainable debt trajectory amid rising deficits and call for structural reforms ahead of elections.
ECB's Cipollone sees low risk of stagflation from Strait of Hormuz crisis
European Central Bank policymaker Piero Cipollone says macroeconomic changes warrant monitoring but sees no immediate signs of stagflation despite geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Germany's social spending hits record as aging population drives costs
Social budget surged 11.5% between 2019-2025, with over 70% of outlays tied to elderly care and illness. Ifo Institute warns demographic trends will keep pressure on public finances.
Mexico’s Q2 GDP grows 1.4% QoQ as services, construction rebound
Second-quarter expansion driven by services and construction, offsetting a revised Q1 contraction of 0.3%. Annual growth slows to 2.1% as trade tensions weigh.
U.S. 30-year Treasury yield draws investor scrutiny amid global bond rout
Long-end U.S. yields remain a focal point as global peers hit multi-decade highs. Analysts warn against excessive pessimism despite rising fiscal concerns.
ECB outlines privacy safeguards for digital euro amid global backlash
Central bank says Eurosystem cannot identify users in digital euro transactions, while lawmakers in the U.S. move to block CBDCs. Pilot phase slated for 2027.
Moody’s affirms Philippines’ Baa2 rating with stable outlook
Rating agency cites fiscal consolidation efforts and resilient funding access as key strengths, while warning of debt affordability pressures and climate risks.
Moody’s lifts Pakistan’s sovereign ratings to B3 from Caa1
Upgrade reflects improving external buffers and fiscal metrics amid macroeconomic stabilization, though debt affordability remains a key constraint.
Bond yields rise ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole debut
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces pressure to address surging Treasury yields and inflation expectations at this week’s annual symposium.
Eurozone PMI rises as inflation pressures ECB rate path
Euro area business activity improved in August, but rising energy costs and sticky core inflation may limit the ECB's scope for further tightening beyond September.