Brazil's 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast was reduced to 1.95% from 1.98% in the latest weekly central bank survey, reflecting a modest downgrade in expectations for the year.
The Focus survey, published on Monday, showed no change to the 2027 GDP growth outlook at 1.50%. The Central Bank's Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) expanded 0.2% in the second quarter, indicating a slowdown compared with earlier in the year.
Inflation projections for 2026 remained at 5.02%, while the 2027 estimate was adjusted to 4.25% from 4.24%. The 2028 inflation forecast was held at 3.80%, still above the official target center of 3.00% with a 1.5 percentage point tolerance band.
The Selic policy rate is expected to end 2026 at 13.75%, down from the current 14%, and decline further to 12.00% by the end of 2027. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point cut at the central bank's September meeting.
